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ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Best of 2015. January started with an all new feature, AFA University. It's a series of short, simple tutorial videos on the basics of football analytics in the style of Khan Academy. The first video was on the Expected Points concept. I looked at how the infamous non * Facebook
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STATS EXPLAINED
The following is a list of definitions of many of the concepts and statistics found throughout Advanced Football Analytics. Air Yards (AY) - The passing yards forward of the line of scrimmage in which the ball travels through the air. In other words, it is total passingyards minus any
EXPECTED POINTS AND EPA This situation is worth +2.0 EP. A 5-yard gain would set up a 2nd and 5 from the 45, which corresponds to a +2.1 EP. Therefore, that 5-yard gain in that particular situation represents a +0.1 gain in EP. This gain is called Expected Points Added (EPA). Likewise, a 5-yard loss on 1st down at midfield would create a 2nd and 15 from the offenseABOUT BRIAN BURKE
About Brian Burke. Brian Burke is the founder and lead analyst for Advanced Football Analytics. After spending 15 years in the Navy, most of them as an F/A-18 carrier pilot, Brian has taken up the less dangerous endeavor of advanced analytics for NFL football. He founded AFA in 2006 as an outlet for innovative ideas about football analysis. THE VALUE OF EACH DRAFT PICK: A RE-EXAMINATION OF MASSEY That's the question that Cade Massey and Richard Thaler answered in 2005 in their landmark paper The Loser's Curse: Decision-Making & Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft.Their research findings demonstrated how the very top picks in the draft were overvalued relative to picks in the bottom of the first and top of the secondround.
MEASURING OFFENSIVE LINES It only captures the half of plays that result in setbacks for the offense, so even the best teams will have a negative sum. Going a step further, however, we can calculate that the NFL average so far in 2010 is -0.38 -WPA for all 32 offensive lines. Chicago's offensive line, therefore, is responsible -0.19 WPA per game more than the averageteam.
4TH DOWN STUDY
The total expected point value of a field goal attempt would be: (0.45 * 2.3) + ( (1-0.45) * -1.1) = 0.4 EP. A 4th down and 3 conversion attempt from that part of the field would be successful 56% of the time. A successful conversion would mean a 1st down EXAMINING LUCK IN NFL TURNOVERS Examining Luck in NFL Turnovers. Details. Published: 24 October 2014. AFA continues its partnership with the Harvard Sports Analysis Club. The following analysis originally appeared on HarvardSportsAnalysis.org. There are relatively few possessions in an NFL football game, so in short, turnovers matter. While a right backon the soccer pitch
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS) The new site will offer all the same content you've come to expect, including analysis, tools, live WP graphs, advanced stats, the podcast, advanced boxscores, and visualizations. In addition, it will have a separate section for team clients and media outlets who use AFAservices. 2.
WEATHER EFFECTS ON PASSING The visitor AYPA is virtually the same, but the home AYPA is about 0.2 or 0.3 yards per attempt higher than this chart above shows. The big takeaway should be that temperature does in fact hurt the passing game. Does it hurt dome and warm climate ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Best of 2015. January started with an all new feature, AFA University. It's a series of short, simple tutorial videos on the basics of football analytics in the style of Khan Academy. The first video was on the Expected Points concept. I looked at how the infamous nonSTATS EXPLAINED
The following is a list of definitions of many of the concepts and statistics found throughout Advanced Football Analytics. Air Yards (AY) - The passing yards forward of the line of scrimmage in which the ball travels through the air. In other words, it is total passingyards minus any
EXPECTED POINTS AND EPA This situation is worth +2.0 EP. A 5-yard gain would set up a 2nd and 5 from the 45, which corresponds to a +2.1 EP. Therefore, that 5-yard gain in that particular situation represents a +0.1 gain in EP. This gain is called Expected Points Added (EPA). Likewise, a 5-yard loss on 1st down at midfield would create a 2nd and 15 from the offenseABOUT BRIAN BURKE
About Brian Burke. Brian Burke is the founder and lead analyst for Advanced Football Analytics. After spending 15 years in the Navy, most of them as an F/A-18 carrier pilot, Brian has taken up the less dangerous endeavor of advanced analytics for NFL football. He founded AFA in 2006 as an outlet for innovative ideas about football analysis. THE VALUE OF EACH DRAFT PICK: A RE-EXAMINATION OF MASSEY That's the question that Cade Massey and Richard Thaler answered in 2005 in their landmark paper The Loser's Curse: Decision-Making & Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft.Their research findings demonstrated how the very top picks in the draft were overvalued relative to picks in the bottom of the first and top of the secondround.
MEASURING OFFENSIVE LINES It only captures the half of plays that result in setbacks for the offense, so even the best teams will have a negative sum. Going a step further, however, we can calculate that the NFL average so far in 2010 is -0.38 -WPA for all 32 offensive lines. Chicago's offensive line, therefore, is responsible -0.19 WPA per game more than the averageteam.
4TH DOWN STUDY
The total expected point value of a field goal attempt would be: (0.45 * 2.3) + ( (1-0.45) * -1.1) = 0.4 EP. A 4th down and 3 conversion attempt from that part of the field would be successful 56% of the time. A successful conversion would mean a 1st down EXAMINING LUCK IN NFL TURNOVERS Examining Luck in NFL Turnovers. Details. Published: 24 October 2014. AFA continues its partnership with the Harvard Sports Analysis Club. The following analysis originally appeared on HarvardSportsAnalysis.org. There are relatively few possessions in an NFL football game, so in short, turnovers matter. While a right backon the soccer pitch
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS) The new site will offer all the same content you've come to expect, including analysis, tools, live WP graphs, advanced stats, the podcast, advanced boxscores, and visualizations. In addition, it will have a separate section for team clients and media outlets who use AFAservices. 2.
WEATHER EFFECTS ON PASSING The visitor AYPA is virtually the same, but the home AYPA is about 0.2 or 0.3 yards per attempt higher than this chart above shows. The big takeaway should be that temperature does in fact hurt the passing game. Does it hurt dome and warm climateSTATS EXPLAINED
The following is a list of definitions of many of the concepts and statistics found throughout Advanced Football Analytics. Air Yards (AY) - The passing yards forward of the line of scrimmage in which the ball travels through the air. In other words, it is total passingyards minus any
ABOUT BRIAN BURKE
About Brian Burke. Brian Burke is the founder and lead analyst for Advanced Football Analytics. After spending 15 years in the Navy, most of them as an F/A-18 carrier pilot, Brian has taken up the less dangerous endeavor of advanced analytics for NFL football. He founded AFA in 2006 as an outlet for innovative ideas about football analysis. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Expected Points and EPA. +WPA and +EPA Explained. Tackle Factor. Measuring Offensive Lines. Tools Calculators and analytic visualizations. Vizualizations. Advanced Team Stats. Franchise Seasons. Player Stats by Position. +WPA AND +EPA EXPLAINED All we need to do is add up all the WPA (or EPA) for each play in which the WPA (or EPA) was positive. "+WPA" and "+EPA" add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense. What these stats measure is "playmaking" ability. HOW COACHES THINK: RUN SUCCESS RATE Before tools such as EPA and WPA were available, I relied on team efficiency stats to estimate team strength. Yards per pass attempt or per run attempt worked out to be very good estimators of how good a team was, especially if ‘good’ is defined as HOW QUARTERBACKS AGE How Quarterbacks Age. Written by Brian Burke. Details. Published: 12 November 2014. Peyton Manning signed a $90 million contract extension that would hypothetically keep him playing through age 40. Nagging questions about his health will almost certainly plague him for the remaining years of his career. To back up the ailing Manning, theColts
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS WR Expected Catch Rate. One of the neat features on the individual stat pages are some receiver stats you don't typically see. There's targets, target percentage, yards per target, catch rate, and deep percentage. Occasionally you'll find target stats on conventional stat sites, but I think target percentage is more interesting--thepercentage
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS Adam Davis says: Tuesday, November 09, 2010 I love the overall calculation that points to 42% of a team's W/L record being attributed to randomness. But I think it's important to point out that that this 42% is a blanket figure that applies to the league in aggregate. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS The blue represents actual fake field goal and punt success rates while the green represents actual go-for-it success rates. The red smoothed line is an estimate of fake success rates while the purple is an estimate of regular fourth down attempts. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS Anonymous says: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 Hey, I just stumbled upon this here. I was the one who created Protrade's Win Probability model. Even though our business model has steered us away from analytics a bit for the time being, I still see it as my baby :-) It took a LONG time to build. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Best of 2015. January started with an all new feature, AFA University. It's a series of short, simple tutorial videos on the basics of football analytics in the style of Khan Academy. The first video was on the Expected Points concept. I looked at how the infamous non ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Expected Points and EPA. +WPA and +EPA Explained. Tackle Factor. Measuring Offensive Lines. Tools Calculators and analytic visualizations. Vizualizations. Advanced Team Stats. Franchise Seasons. Player Stats by Position. EXPECTED POINTS AND EPA This situation is worth +2.0 EP. A 5-yard gain would set up a 2nd and 5 from the 45, which corresponds to a +2.1 EP. Therefore, that 5-yard gain in that particular situation represents a +0.1 gain in EP. This gain is called Expected Points Added (EPA). Likewise, a 5-yard loss on 1st down at midfield would create a 2nd and 15 from the offenseABOUT BRIAN BURKE
About Brian Burke. Brian Burke is the founder and lead analyst for Advanced Football Analytics. After spending 15 years in the Navy, most of them as an F/A-18 carrier pilot, Brian has taken up the less dangerous endeavor of advanced analytics for NFL football. He founded AFA in 2006 as an outlet for innovative ideas about football analysis. MEASURING OFFENSIVE LINES It only captures the half of plays that result in setbacks for the offense, so even the best teams will have a negative sum. Going a step further, however, we can calculate that the NFL average so far in 2010 is -0.38 -WPA for all 32 offensive lines. Chicago's offensive line, therefore, is responsible -0.19 WPA per game more than the averageteam.
4TH DOWN STUDY
The total expected point value of a field goal attempt would be: (0.45 * 2.3) + ( (1-0.45) * -1.1) = 0.4 EP. A 4th down and 3 conversion attempt from that part of the field would be successful 56% of the time. A successful conversion would mean a 1st down ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS) The new site will offer all the same content you've come to expect, including analysis, tools, live WP graphs, advanced stats, the podcast, advanced boxscores, and visualizations. In addition, it will have a separate section for team clients and media outlets who use AFAservices. 2.
EXAMINING LUCK IN NFL TURNOVERS Examining Luck in NFL Turnovers. Details. Published: 24 October 2014. AFA continues its partnership with the Harvard Sports Analysis Club. The following analysis originally appeared on HarvardSportsAnalysis.org. There are relatively few possessions in an NFL football game, so in short, turnovers matter. While a right backon the soccer pitch
WEATHER EFFECTS ON PASSING The visitor AYPA is virtually the same, but the home AYPA is about 0.2 or 0.3 yards per attempt higher than this chart above shows. The big takeaway should be that temperature does in fact hurt the passing game. Does it hurt dome and warm climate ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS From the 2000 through 2011 seasons, there were 223 examples in total--a little over 20 per 10-yard bin of field position. The chart below plots the TD success rate in the sample. The Seahawks were at the 24 yd line, which would correspond to just over a 10% chance of a TD and winning the game. -The one indicated TD from the offense’sown 24
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Best of 2015. January started with an all new feature, AFA University. It's a series of short, simple tutorial videos on the basics of football analytics in the style of Khan Academy. The first video was on the Expected Points concept. I looked at how the infamous non ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Expected Points and EPA. +WPA and +EPA Explained. Tackle Factor. Measuring Offensive Lines. Tools Calculators and analytic visualizations. Vizualizations. Advanced Team Stats. Franchise Seasons. Player Stats by Position. EXPECTED POINTS AND EPA This situation is worth +2.0 EP. A 5-yard gain would set up a 2nd and 5 from the 45, which corresponds to a +2.1 EP. Therefore, that 5-yard gain in that particular situation represents a +0.1 gain in EP. This gain is called Expected Points Added (EPA). Likewise, a 5-yard loss on 1st down at midfield would create a 2nd and 15 from the offenseABOUT BRIAN BURKE
About Brian Burke. Brian Burke is the founder and lead analyst for Advanced Football Analytics. After spending 15 years in the Navy, most of them as an F/A-18 carrier pilot, Brian has taken up the less dangerous endeavor of advanced analytics for NFL football. He founded AFA in 2006 as an outlet for innovative ideas about football analysis. MEASURING OFFENSIVE LINES It only captures the half of plays that result in setbacks for the offense, so even the best teams will have a negative sum. Going a step further, however, we can calculate that the NFL average so far in 2010 is -0.38 -WPA for all 32 offensive lines. Chicago's offensive line, therefore, is responsible -0.19 WPA per game more than the averageteam.
4TH DOWN STUDY
The total expected point value of a field goal attempt would be: (0.45 * 2.3) + ( (1-0.45) * -1.1) = 0.4 EP. A 4th down and 3 conversion attempt from that part of the field would be successful 56% of the time. A successful conversion would mean a 1st down ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS) The new site will offer all the same content you've come to expect, including analysis, tools, live WP graphs, advanced stats, the podcast, advanced boxscores, and visualizations. In addition, it will have a separate section for team clients and media outlets who use AFAservices. 2.
EXAMINING LUCK IN NFL TURNOVERS Examining Luck in NFL Turnovers. Details. Published: 24 October 2014. AFA continues its partnership with the Harvard Sports Analysis Club. The following analysis originally appeared on HarvardSportsAnalysis.org. There are relatively few possessions in an NFL football game, so in short, turnovers matter. While a right backon the soccer pitch
WEATHER EFFECTS ON PASSING The visitor AYPA is virtually the same, but the home AYPA is about 0.2 or 0.3 yards per attempt higher than this chart above shows. The big takeaway should be that temperature does in fact hurt the passing game. Does it hurt dome and warm climate ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS From the 2000 through 2011 seasons, there were 223 examples in total--a little over 20 per 10-yard bin of field position. The chart below plots the TD success rate in the sample. The Seahawks were at the 24 yd line, which would correspond to just over a 10% chance of a TD and winning the game. -The one indicated TD from the offense’sown 24
ABOUT BRIAN BURKE
About Brian Burke. Brian Burke is the founder and lead analyst for Advanced Football Analytics. After spending 15 years in the Navy, most of them as an F/A-18 carrier pilot, Brian has taken up the less dangerous endeavor of advanced analytics for NFL football. He founded AFA in 2006 as an outlet for innovative ideas about football analysis. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Expected Points and EPA. +WPA and +EPA Explained. Tackle Factor. Measuring Offensive Lines. Tools Calculators and analytic visualizations. Vizualizations. Advanced Team Stats. Franchise Seasons. Player Stats by Position. WIN PROBABILITY AND WPA WPA starts with a Win Probability (WP) model of the game of football. Every situation in a game gives each opponent a particular chance of winning, and a WP model estimates those chances. The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. +WPA AND +EPA EXPLAINED All we need to do is add up all the WPA (or EPA) for each play in which the WPA (or EPA) was positive. "+WPA" and "+EPA" add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense. What these stats measure is "playmaking" ability. HOW COACHES THINK: RUN SUCCESS RATE Before tools such as EPA and WPA were available, I relied on team efficiency stats to estimate team strength. Yards per pass attempt or per run attempt worked out to be very good estimators of how good a team was, especially if ‘good’ is defined as HOW QUARTERBACKS AGE How Quarterbacks Age. Written by Brian Burke. Details. Published: 12 November 2014. Peyton Manning signed a $90 million contract extension that would hypothetically keep him playing through age 40. Nagging questions about his health will almost certainly plague him for the remaining years of his career. To back up the ailing Manning, theColts
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS The first graph depicts how often NFL drives result in scores. The second graph depicts how often drives result in turnovers. The third graph combines the two previous graphs and adds punts. It also groups the data into 5-yard increments so the lines are less noisy and easier to read. published on 1/14/2009. in basic , research. By Brian Burke. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS Adam Davis says: Tuesday, November 09, 2010 I love the overall calculation that points to 42% of a team's W/L record being attributed to randomness. But I think it's important to point out that that this 42% is a blanket figure that applies to the league in aggregate. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS The blue represents actual fake field goal and punt success rates while the green represents actual go-for-it success rates. The red smoothed line is an estimate of fake success rates while the purple is an estimate of regular fourth down attempts. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS Anonymous says: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 Hey, I just stumbled upon this here. I was the one who created Protrade's Win Probability model. Even though our business model has steered us away from analytics a bit for the time being, I still see it as my baby :-) It took a LONG time to build. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Best of 2015. January started with an all new feature, AFA University. It's a series of short, simple tutorial videos on the basics of football analytics in the style of Khan Academy. The first video was on the Expected Points concept. I looked at how the infamous non THE VALUE OF EACH DRAFT PICK: A RE-EXAMINATION OF MASSEY That's the question that Cade Massey and Richard Thaler answered in 2005 in their landmark paper The Loser's Curse: Decision-Making & Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft.Their research findings demonstrated how the very top picks in the draft were overvalued relative to picks in the bottom of the first and top of the secondround.
EXPECTED POINTS AND EPA This situation is worth +2.0 EP. A 5-yard gain would set up a 2nd and 5 from the 45, which corresponds to a +2.1 EP. Therefore, that 5-yard gain in that particular situation represents a +0.1 gain in EP. This gain is called Expected Points Added (EPA). Likewise, a 5-yard loss on 1st down at midfield would create a 2nd and 15 from the offense4TH DOWN STUDY
The total expected point value of a field goal attempt would be: (0.45 * 2.3) + ( (1-0.45) * -1.1) = 0.4 EP. A 4th down and 3 conversion attempt from that part of the field would be successful 56% of the time. A successful conversion would mean a 1st down HOW COACHES THINK: RUN SUCCESS RATE Before tools such as EPA and WPA were available, I relied on team efficiency stats to estimate team strength. Yards per pass attempt or per run attempt worked out to be very good estimators of how good a team was, especially if ‘good’ is defined as EXAMINING LUCK IN NFL TURNOVERS Examining Luck in NFL Turnovers. Details. Published: 24 October 2014. AFA continues its partnership with the Harvard Sports Analysis Club. The following analysis originally appeared on HarvardSportsAnalysis.org. There are relatively few possessions in an NFL football game, so in short, turnovers matter. While a right backon the soccer pitch
WEATHER EFFECTS ON PASSING The visitor AYPA is virtually the same, but the home AYPA is about 0.2 or 0.3 yards per attempt higher than this chart above shows. The big takeaway should be that temperature does in fact hurt the passing game. Does it hurt dome and warm climate ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS) The new site will offer all the same content you've come to expect, including analysis, tools, live WP graphs, advanced stats, the podcast, advanced boxscores, and visualizations. In addition, it will have a separate section for team clients and media outlets who use AFAservices. 2.
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS A team is obviously more likely to go for a 1-play TD on 2nd-and-1 than 2nd-and-7 (5.6% of 2nd-and-1 plays result in touchdowns versus only 2.6% of 2nd-and-7 plays). Upon first glance, other than on 4th down when teams are more likely to kick field goals and punt, the down has almost no effect on 1-play TD probability. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS 0.20 * 12.4 = 2.5 TDs per game (17.4 points) The result is a 0.4 TD per game advantage to a team with a 4-yd field position edge, the equivalent of 2.8 points per game. But it wouldn't work out exactly that way, because there is obviously no such thing as 0.4 touchdowns. So sometimes a team would end up with an additional TD, sometimes not,but
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Best of 2015. January started with an all new feature, AFA University. It's a series of short, simple tutorial videos on the basics of football analytics in the style of Khan Academy. The first video was on the Expected Points concept. I looked at how the infamous non THE VALUE OF EACH DRAFT PICK: A RE-EXAMINATION OF MASSEY That's the question that Cade Massey and Richard Thaler answered in 2005 in their landmark paper The Loser's Curse: Decision-Making & Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft.Their research findings demonstrated how the very top picks in the draft were overvalued relative to picks in the bottom of the first and top of the secondround.
EXPECTED POINTS AND EPA This situation is worth +2.0 EP. A 5-yard gain would set up a 2nd and 5 from the 45, which corresponds to a +2.1 EP. Therefore, that 5-yard gain in that particular situation represents a +0.1 gain in EP. This gain is called Expected Points Added (EPA). Likewise, a 5-yard loss on 1st down at midfield would create a 2nd and 15 from the offense4TH DOWN STUDY
The total expected point value of a field goal attempt would be: (0.45 * 2.3) + ( (1-0.45) * -1.1) = 0.4 EP. A 4th down and 3 conversion attempt from that part of the field would be successful 56% of the time. A successful conversion would mean a 1st down HOW COACHES THINK: RUN SUCCESS RATE Before tools such as EPA and WPA were available, I relied on team efficiency stats to estimate team strength. Yards per pass attempt or per run attempt worked out to be very good estimators of how good a team was, especially if ‘good’ is defined as EXAMINING LUCK IN NFL TURNOVERS Examining Luck in NFL Turnovers. Details. Published: 24 October 2014. AFA continues its partnership with the Harvard Sports Analysis Club. The following analysis originally appeared on HarvardSportsAnalysis.org. There are relatively few possessions in an NFL football game, so in short, turnovers matter. While a right backon the soccer pitch
WEATHER EFFECTS ON PASSING The visitor AYPA is virtually the same, but the home AYPA is about 0.2 or 0.3 yards per attempt higher than this chart above shows. The big takeaway should be that temperature does in fact hurt the passing game. Does it hurt dome and warm climate ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS) The new site will offer all the same content you've come to expect, including analysis, tools, live WP graphs, advanced stats, the podcast, advanced boxscores, and visualizations. In addition, it will have a separate section for team clients and media outlets who use AFAservices. 2.
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS A team is obviously more likely to go for a 1-play TD on 2nd-and-1 than 2nd-and-7 (5.6% of 2nd-and-1 plays result in touchdowns versus only 2.6% of 2nd-and-7 plays). Upon first glance, other than on 4th down when teams are more likely to kick field goals and punt, the down has almost no effect on 1-play TD probability. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS 0.20 * 12.4 = 2.5 TDs per game (17.4 points) The result is a 0.4 TD per game advantage to a team with a 4-yd field position edge, the equivalent of 2.8 points per game. But it wouldn't work out exactly that way, because there is obviously no such thing as 0.4 touchdowns. So sometimes a team would end up with an additional TD, sometimes not,but
ABOUT AFA - ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Welcome to Advanced Football Analytics. This is a website I created to share my research and analysis of NFL football. Instead of opinion and intuition, AFA uses facts and data to create the most interesting, most relevant, and most useful analysis available.RESEARCH ARTICLES
Research articles about general aspects of the sport of football, including research in what makes the game tick, the sources of home field advantage, historical analysis, and much more. ABOUT - ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Published: 18 June 2014. This tool is intended to help decision-makers better assess the NFL draft market. Specifically, it estimates the probability each prospect will be available at each pick number. The estimates are based on a Bayesian inference model based on consensus player rankings and projections from individual experts with a historyPLAYER ANALYSIS
Podcast Episode 46 - Brian Burke. Roster Construction Using Optimization Part 2 (Backups) The Value of Each Draft Pick: A Re-Examination of Massey-Thaler Surplus Value under the New CBA. Draft Model Upgrade: Player Position and Team Need. Special Offer: The PLAYER STATS BY POSITION Menu. Research Cutting edge research. Research Archive Draft Game Strategy Payroll & Personnel General Fantasy Weather Other Sports Analysis Penetrating analysis. Team Analysis Player Analysis WEATHER - ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS New Feature: Draft Trade Evaluator. Podcast Episode 46 - Brian Burke. Roster Construction Using Optimization Part 2 (Backups) The Value of Each Draft Pick: A Re-Examination of Massey-Thaler Surplus Value under the New CBA. Draft Model Upgrade: Player Position and Team Need. Special Offer: The Buffalo Bills Visa Card. Analyzing the Suh Signing.TIME CALCULATOR
Welcome to the Advanced NFL Stats time calculator. This tool will estimate the time remaining when the team on defense will likely gain possession. Enter the game state to the left and click calculate. If the team on defense prefers to allow the clock to run to the two minute warning and save a timeout, check the 'Save Timeout' box.ABOUT BRIAN BURKE
About Brian Burke. Brian Burke is the founder and lead analyst for Advanced Football Analytics. After spending 15 years in the Navy, most of them as an F/A-18 carrier pilot, Brian has taken up the less dangerous endeavor of advanced analytics for NFL football. He founded AFA in 2006 as an outlet for innovative ideas about football analysis. QB SEASONS & CAREERS Menu. Research Cutting edge research. Research Archive Draft Game Strategy Payroll & Personnel General Fantasy Weather Other Sports Analysis Penetrating analysis. Team Analysis Player Analysis NEW FEATURE: DRAFT TRADE EVALUATOR The AFA Draft Trade Evaluator Tool is now live and is currently available to all readers. The tool calculates the total value on each side of the trade, allowing users to judge the merits of any proposed deal. In truth, it’s not so new because there are a bazillion other tools and charts available —my personal favorite is Chase Stuart’s ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Best of 2015. January started with an all new feature, AFA University. It's a series of short, simple tutorial videos on the basics of football analytics in the style of Khan Academy. The first video was on the Expected Points concept. I looked at how the infamous non THE VALUE OF EACH DRAFT PICK: A RE-EXAMINATION OF MASSEYVALUE OF NFL DRAFT PICKSDRAFT PICK TRADE VALUEDRAFT PICK VALUENFL DRAFT PICK VALUE BOARDNFL DRAFT PICK VALUES CHART That's the question that Cade Massey and Richard Thaler answered in 2005 in their landmark paper The Loser's Curse: Decision-Making & Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft.Their research findings demonstrated how the very top picks in the draft were overvalued relative to picks in the bottom of the first and top of the secondround.
EXPECTED POINTS AND EPA This situation is worth +2.0 EP. A 5-yard gain would set up a 2nd and 5 from the 45, which corresponds to a +2.1 EP. Therefore, that 5-yard gain in that particular situation represents a +0.1 gain in EP. This gain is called Expected Points Added (EPA). Likewise, a 5-yard loss on 1st down at midfield would create a 2nd and 15 from the offense4TH DOWN STUDY
The total expected point value of a field goal attempt would be: (0.45 * 2.3) + ( (1-0.45) * -1.1) = 0.4 EP. A 4th down and 3 conversion attempt from that part of the field would be successful 56% of the time. A successful conversion would mean a 1st down HOW COACHES THINK: RUN SUCCESS RATE Before tools such as EPA and WPA were available, I relied on team efficiency stats to estimate team strength. Yards per pass attempt or per run attempt worked out to be very good estimators of how good a team was, especially if ‘good’ is defined as EXAMINING LUCK IN NFL TURNOVERS Examining Luck in NFL Turnovers. Details. Published: 24 October 2014. AFA continues its partnership with the Harvard Sports Analysis Club. The following analysis originally appeared on HarvardSportsAnalysis.org. There are relatively few possessions in an NFL football game, so in short, turnovers matter. While a right backon the soccer pitch
WEATHER EFFECTS ON PASSING The visitor AYPA is virtually the same, but the home AYPA is about 0.2 or 0.3 yards per attempt higher than this chart above shows. The big takeaway should be that temperature does in fact hurt the passing game. Does it hurt dome and warm climate ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS) The new site will offer all the same content you've come to expect, including analysis, tools, live WP graphs, advanced stats, the podcast, advanced boxscores, and visualizations. In addition, it will have a separate section for team clients and media outlets who use AFAservices. 2.
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS A team is obviously more likely to go for a 1-play TD on 2nd-and-1 than 2nd-and-7 (5.6% of 2nd-and-1 plays result in touchdowns versus only 2.6% of 2nd-and-7 plays). Upon first glance, other than on 4th down when teams are more likely to kick field goals and punt, the down has almost no effect on 1-play TD probability. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS 0.20 * 12.4 = 2.5 TDs per game (17.4 points) The result is a 0.4 TD per game advantage to a team with a 4-yd field position edge, the equivalent of 2.8 points per game. But it wouldn't work out exactly that way, because there is obviously no such thing as 0.4 touchdowns. So sometimes a team would end up with an additional TD, sometimes not,but
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Best of 2015. January started with an all new feature, AFA University. It's a series of short, simple tutorial videos on the basics of football analytics in the style of Khan Academy. The first video was on the Expected Points concept. I looked at how the infamous non THE VALUE OF EACH DRAFT PICK: A RE-EXAMINATION OF MASSEYVALUE OF NFL DRAFT PICKSDRAFT PICK TRADE VALUEDRAFT PICK VALUENFL DRAFT PICK VALUE BOARDNFL DRAFT PICK VALUES CHART That's the question that Cade Massey and Richard Thaler answered in 2005 in their landmark paper The Loser's Curse: Decision-Making & Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft.Their research findings demonstrated how the very top picks in the draft were overvalued relative to picks in the bottom of the first and top of the secondround.
EXPECTED POINTS AND EPA This situation is worth +2.0 EP. A 5-yard gain would set up a 2nd and 5 from the 45, which corresponds to a +2.1 EP. Therefore, that 5-yard gain in that particular situation represents a +0.1 gain in EP. This gain is called Expected Points Added (EPA). Likewise, a 5-yard loss on 1st down at midfield would create a 2nd and 15 from the offense4TH DOWN STUDY
The total expected point value of a field goal attempt would be: (0.45 * 2.3) + ( (1-0.45) * -1.1) = 0.4 EP. A 4th down and 3 conversion attempt from that part of the field would be successful 56% of the time. A successful conversion would mean a 1st down HOW COACHES THINK: RUN SUCCESS RATE Before tools such as EPA and WPA were available, I relied on team efficiency stats to estimate team strength. Yards per pass attempt or per run attempt worked out to be very good estimators of how good a team was, especially if ‘good’ is defined as EXAMINING LUCK IN NFL TURNOVERS Examining Luck in NFL Turnovers. Details. Published: 24 October 2014. AFA continues its partnership with the Harvard Sports Analysis Club. The following analysis originally appeared on HarvardSportsAnalysis.org. There are relatively few possessions in an NFL football game, so in short, turnovers matter. While a right backon the soccer pitch
WEATHER EFFECTS ON PASSING The visitor AYPA is virtually the same, but the home AYPA is about 0.2 or 0.3 yards per attempt higher than this chart above shows. The big takeaway should be that temperature does in fact hurt the passing game. Does it hurt dome and warm climate ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS) The new site will offer all the same content you've come to expect, including analysis, tools, live WP graphs, advanced stats, the podcast, advanced boxscores, and visualizations. In addition, it will have a separate section for team clients and media outlets who use AFAservices. 2.
ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS A team is obviously more likely to go for a 1-play TD on 2nd-and-1 than 2nd-and-7 (5.6% of 2nd-and-1 plays result in touchdowns versus only 2.6% of 2nd-and-7 plays). Upon first glance, other than on 4th down when teams are more likely to kick field goals and punt, the down has almost no effect on 1-play TD probability. ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS (FORMERLY ADVANCED NFL STATS 0.20 * 12.4 = 2.5 TDs per game (17.4 points) The result is a 0.4 TD per game advantage to a team with a 4-yd field position edge, the equivalent of 2.8 points per game. But it wouldn't work out exactly that way, because there is obviously no such thing as 0.4 touchdowns. So sometimes a team would end up with an additional TD, sometimes not,but
ABOUT AFA - ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Welcome to Advanced Football Analytics. This is a website I created to share my research and analysis of NFL football. Instead of opinion and intuition, AFA uses facts and data to create the most interesting, most relevant, and most useful analysis available.RESEARCH ARTICLES
Research articles about general aspects of the sport of football, including research in what makes the game tick, the sources of home field advantage, historical analysis, and much more. ABOUT - ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS Published: 18 June 2014. This tool is intended to help decision-makers better assess the NFL draft market. Specifically, it estimates the probability each prospect will be available at each pick number. The estimates are based on a Bayesian inference model based on consensus player rankings and projections from individual experts with a historyPLAYER ANALYSIS
Podcast Episode 46 - Brian Burke. Roster Construction Using Optimization Part 2 (Backups) The Value of Each Draft Pick: A Re-Examination of Massey-Thaler Surplus Value under the New CBA. Draft Model Upgrade: Player Position and Team Need. Special Offer: The PLAYER STATS BY POSITION Menu. Research Cutting edge research. Research Archive Draft Game Strategy Payroll & Personnel General Fantasy Weather Other Sports Analysis Penetrating analysis. Team Analysis Player Analysis WEATHER - ADVANCED FOOTBALL ANALYTICS New Feature: Draft Trade Evaluator. Podcast Episode 46 - Brian Burke. Roster Construction Using Optimization Part 2 (Backups) The Value of Each Draft Pick: A Re-Examination of Massey-Thaler Surplus Value under the New CBA. Draft Model Upgrade: Player Position and Team Need. Special Offer: The Buffalo Bills Visa Card. Analyzing the Suh Signing.TIME CALCULATOR
Welcome to the Advanced NFL Stats time calculator. This tool will estimate the time remaining when the team on defense will likely gain possession. Enter the game state to the left and click calculate. If the team on defense prefers to allow the clock to run to the two minute warning and save a timeout, check the 'Save Timeout' box.ABOUT BRIAN BURKE
About Brian Burke. Brian Burke is the founder and lead analyst for Advanced Football Analytics. After spending 15 years in the Navy, most of them as an F/A-18 carrier pilot, Brian has taken up the less dangerous endeavor of advanced analytics for NFL football. He founded AFA in 2006 as an outlet for innovative ideas about football analysis. QB SEASONS & CAREERS Menu. Research Cutting edge research. Research Archive Draft Game Strategy Payroll & Personnel General Fantasy Weather Other Sports Analysis Penetrating analysis. Team Analysis Player Analysis NEW FEATURE: DRAFT TRADE EVALUATOR The AFA Draft Trade Evaluator Tool is now live and is currently available to all readers. The tool calculates the total value on each side of the trade, allowing users to judge the merits of any proposed deal. In truth, it’s not so new because there are a bazillion other tools and charts available —my personal favorite is Chase Stuart’sNo iframes
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ALL GOOD THINGS...
The bad news is that this is the last post on AFA, at least for a long while. The site's articles will remain online, but there will be no new content. The good news is that I'm pleased to announce that AFA is merging with ESPN! The two titans of the sports industry will be soon joining forces to create one giant mega-sports outlet. There are a few details left to be decided in this merger-of-equals, like what the name of our new company will be. So far we've ruled out _AFAESPN_ and _ESPNAFA_. For some reason the guys in Bristol absolutely insist that it simply be "ESPN," and since marketing isn't my thing I'm inclined to throw the boys in Bristol a bone. In all seriousness, ESPN has acquired an exclusive license for all my tools and models. I'll also be joining the ESPN analytics crewfull-time.
This is a great time to turn the page. I love AFA and the community it helped build, but I think the site has reached its potential. It has certainly put a dent in the football universe. The usefulness of my research is currently constrained by the richness of the data I have access to. With more detailed data--stuff beyond 'was the play a run or pass?'--there are all kinds of fruitful paths to follow. With ESPN's resources at hand, I'll be able to take things to the next level. I'm looking forward to joining a very talented and accomplished group, and I'm also excited about branching out into other sportsmore.
Read more: All Good Things...BEST OF 2015
January started with an all new feature, AFA University. It's a series of short, simple tutorial videos on the basics of football analytics in the style of Khan Academy. The first video was on the ExpectedPoints concept
.
I looked at how the infamous non-pass interference call affected theLions-Cowboys game
.
In January I added a follow-up AFAU video on Expected Points Added.
The division round playoff games featured a couple of really interesting games. Here's my analysis on all four,
including 2 point conversion and weather considerations. The Seattle comeback over Green Bay in the NFC… Read more: Best of 2015 QB ENHANCEMENT FOR THE BAYESIAN DRAFT MODELQuarterback
is a special positions in many ways, and we can use that fact to improve the accuracy of the Bayesian draft prediction model.
You may have noticed that throughout the '00s the Colts and Patriots were not burning up first round picks on QBs. With Manning and Brady occupying the starting roles on each team, it would make little sense to do otherwise. And it doesn't have to be a lock-future-Hall-of-Famer under center to be sure a team won't be fishing in the first couple rounds for a QB. While second-tier guys like Roethlisberger, Flacco, Ryan, and other have occupied starting roles,… Read more: QB Enhancement for the Bayesian Draft Model NEW FEATURE: DRAFT TRADE EVALUATOROne
of my recent goals is to operationalize the lessons that football analytics has provided. It’s one thing for these ideas to end up on a blog post somewhere or get retweeted a bunch of times, but it’s another thing to turn the research into actionable information. And it’s yet another thing to put it into action. For example, having a Win Probability model is cool and everything, but it was only a bunch of numbers until teams starting using its related applications to inform their decisions. So I’m always most excited when I have a new tool to unveil. The AFA Draft Trade Evaluator Toolis…
Read more: New Feature: Draft Trade Evaluator PODCAST EPISODE 46 - BRIAN BURKE Brian Burke returns to preview the 2015 NFL draft. Dave asks Brian about his “knapsack”
metaphor for building an NFL roster and describe the trade-offs the NFL GM’s must make when preparing to bring on new talent. Brian goes on to explain how he re-examined the landmark “Massey-Thaler DraftSurplus Study
”
with updated data. To close out the show, Brian previews the newly improved and updated Bayesian Draft “War Room”
and Draft Trade Evaluatortools
and explains how teams and fans can use them during the draftbroadcast.
Have questions or comments about the show? Leave them below, send themto…
Read more: Podcast Episode 46 - Brian Burke* Start
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AFA PODCAST
Brian Burke is back for the final AFA podcast of the 2014-15 NFL season. Brian and Dave discuss the Patriots deflated ball controversy with a quick recap of high school physics before analyzing the key analytical storylines of Super Bowl XLIX.RECENT ARTICLES
* QB Enhancement for the Bayesian Draft Model * New Feature: Draft Trade Evaluator * Podcast Episode 46 - Brian Burke * Roster Construction Using Optimization Part 2 (Backups) * The Value of Each Draft Pick: A Re-Examination of Massey-Thaler Surplus Value under the New CBA * Draft Model Upgrade: Player Position and Team Need * Special Offer: The Buffalo Bills Visa Card * Analyzing the Suh Signing * What's the Optimum Allocation of Free Agent Money?* The Ngata Trade
* Bayesian Draft Analysis Tool Is Now Live * The Value of a Good Analytics Program * New AFA University Lesson - Success Rate * Raiders of the Lost Salary Cap * Should Belichick Have Called a Timeout? * Analysis of The Call on SlateMenu
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