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OIL: THE NEXT REVOLUTION A new study by Belfer Center Geopolitics of Energy researcher Leonardo Maugeri finds that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive who IDEAL QUALITIES OF A SUCCESSFUL DIPLOMAT Build long-term physical and mental stamina. With the exercise of power and responsibility comes continuous 12-16 hour days, filled with pressure and stress. Be fit. Accept dangerous assignments. Diplomats frequently serve in menacing locales, sometimes die in the line ofduty.
WHAT IS NUCLEAR SUPERIORITY? In recent months, we have seen Secretary of Defense Harold Brown warn that our land-based Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are vulnerable to Soviet attack, the ratification of the second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) languish in the Senate, President Jimmy Carter's Directive 59 emphasize counterforce targeting, and the Republican platform call for some form of military MACHINE LEARNING FOR POLICYMAKERS Machine learning matters. If nothing else, the drumbeat of headlines in recent years offers proof of this. In fields as diverse as healthcare, transportation, policing, and warfighting, machine learning algorithms have already had a significant impact. CYBER PROJECT COUNCIL FOR THE RESPONSIBLE USE OF AI … ii The Coming AI Hackers About the Author Bruce Schneier is a fellow at the Cyber Project, in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He is the New York Times best- selling author of 14 books—including Click Here to Kill Everybody—as well ashundreds
THE LOGIC OF US-CHINA COMPETITION The success of U.S. President Joe Biden's China policy will depend on whether the two powers can cooperate in producing global public goods, while competing in other areas. The U.S.-China relationship is a "cooperative rivalry," in which the terms of competition will require equal attention to both sides of the oxymoron. Joseph Nye argues that it will not be easy. NEW THREATS, OLD TECHNOLOGY: VULNERABILITIES IN UNDERSEA This paper explores the vulnerabilities to cyber attacks of infrastructure that today carries nearly all the world's data and voice traffic: undersea communications cables. Long-standing physical vulnerabilities in cable infrastructure have been compounded by new risk found in the network management systems that monitor and controlcable operations.
THE RISE OF CHINA: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Please join the Future of Diplomacy Project for a conversation with Julie Bishop, Fisher Family Fellow and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Australia, about China and Australia’s relationship, the increasing geopolitical role of the Quad, and how U.S. foreign policy should respond to China's rise. Research Director, Torrey Taussig will moderate this discussion. THE BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSRESEARCHEXPERTSPROGRAMS & PROJECTSFELLOWSHIPSEVENTS To compete and thrive in the 21st century, democracies, and the United States in particular, must develop new national security and economic strategies that address the geopolitics of information. DOOM: THE POLITICS OF CATASTROPHE Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. “All disasters are in some sense man-made.”. Setting the annus horribilis of 2020 in historical perspective, Niall Ferguson explains why we are getting worse, not better, at handling disasters. Disasters are inherently hard to predict. Pandemics, like earthquakes, wildfires, financial crises, andwars, are
OIL: THE NEXT REVOLUTION A new study by Belfer Center Geopolitics of Energy researcher Leonardo Maugeri finds that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive who IDEAL QUALITIES OF A SUCCESSFUL DIPLOMAT Build long-term physical and mental stamina. With the exercise of power and responsibility comes continuous 12-16 hour days, filled with pressure and stress. Be fit. Accept dangerous assignments. Diplomats frequently serve in menacing locales, sometimes die in the line ofduty.
WHAT IS NUCLEAR SUPERIORITY? In recent months, we have seen Secretary of Defense Harold Brown warn that our land-based Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are vulnerable to Soviet attack, the ratification of the second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) languish in the Senate, President Jimmy Carter's Directive 59 emphasize counterforce targeting, and the Republican platform call for some form of military MACHINE LEARNING FOR POLICYMAKERS Machine learning matters. If nothing else, the drumbeat of headlines in recent years offers proof of this. In fields as diverse as healthcare, transportation, policing, and warfighting, machine learning algorithms have already had a significant impact. CYBER PROJECT COUNCIL FOR THE RESPONSIBLE USE OF AI … ii The Coming AI Hackers About the Author Bruce Schneier is a fellow at the Cyber Project, in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He is the New York Times best- selling author of 14 books—including Click Here to Kill Everybody—as well ashundreds
THE LOGIC OF US-CHINA COMPETITION The success of U.S. President Joe Biden's China policy will depend on whether the two powers can cooperate in producing global public goods, while competing in other areas. The U.S.-China relationship is a "cooperative rivalry," in which the terms of competition will require equal attention to both sides of the oxymoron. Joseph Nye argues that it will not be easy. NEW THREATS, OLD TECHNOLOGY: VULNERABILITIES IN UNDERSEA This paper explores the vulnerabilities to cyber attacks of infrastructure that today carries nearly all the world's data and voice traffic: undersea communications cables. Long-standing physical vulnerabilities in cable infrastructure have been compounded by new risk found in the network management systems that monitor and controlcable operations.
THE RISE OF CHINA: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Please join the Future of Diplomacy Project for a conversation with Julie Bishop, Fisher Family Fellow and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Australia, about China and Australia’s relationship, the increasing geopolitical role of the Quad, and how U.S. foreign policy should respond to China's rise. Research Director, Torrey Taussig will moderate this discussion. THE COMING AI HACKERS Hacking is generally thought of as something done to computer systems, but this conceptualization can be extended to any system of rules. The tax code, financial markets, and any system of laws can be hacked. This essay considers a world where AIs can be hackers. This is a generalization of specification gaming, where vulnerabilities and exploits of our social, economic, and political systems THE KINDLEBERGER TRAP Charles Kindleberger, one of the intellectual architects of the Marshall Plan, argued that the disastrous decade of the 1930s was a result of the United States' failure to provide global public goods after it had replaced Britain as the leading power. Today, as China’s power grows, will it COVID-19: MAKE IT THE LAST PANDEMIC Please join the Future of Diplomacy Project for a discussion on the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response’s (IPPPR) recent report "COVID-19: Make It the Last Pandemic" with Panel members Dr. Joanne Liu, former International President of Doctors Without Borders; David Miliband, President and Chief Executive Officer of the International Rescue Committee; and Ambassador WHAT IS NUCLEAR SUPERIORITY? In recent months, we have seen Secretary of Defense Harold Brown warn that our land-based Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are vulnerable to Soviet attack, the ratification of the second Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) languish in the Senate, President Jimmy Carter's Directive 59 emphasize counterforce targeting, and the Republican platform call for some form of military BIODIVERSITY LOSS IS A KEY RISK FOR INVESTORS Awareness of biodiversity loss is increasing, but climate change still dominates investors' discourse on the environment. Joel Clement, a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, explains why we need to focus urgently on the biodiversity crisis. He also discusses why he came a whistleblower in 2017 and the aftermath of that decision. CLIMATE CHANGE IS RAPIDLY TRANSFORMING THE ARCTIC: WHY John Holdren writes: For the last couple of decades, though, climate change has been transforming practically everything about the Arctic that matters to people both inside and outside of the region. That’s because the Arctic as a whole has been warming two to three times faster than the rest of the world. The accumulating effects of this extreme warming are now manifesting themselves in a ZERO BOTNETS: AN OBSERVE-PURSUE-COUNTER APPROACH Adversarial Internet robots (botnets) represent a growing threat to the safe use and stability of the Internet. Botnets can play a role in launching adversary reconnaissance (scanning and phishing), influence operations (upvoting), and financing operations (ransomware, market manipulation, denial of service, spamming, and ad click fraud) while obfuscating tailored tactical operations. Reducing THE GOVERNMENT TECHNOLOGY SILVER BULLET: HIRING IN-HOUSE If we want to have a lasting impact on the way that our country serves its people, we need to make the most of this momentum to address the root causes beneath these repeated failures. We need to focus our efforts onto the long-term work of addressing the systemic problems that cause our most critical services to fail when they are most needed. I believe that hiring more in-house technical THE NATIONAL CYBER FORCE THAT BRITAIN NEEDS? This report argues that the success of the new UK National Cyber Force (NCF) will be determined by the quality of the leadership, strategy, structures and processes that shape its growth and operational use.ZERO BOTNETS
2 Zero Botnets: An Observe-Pursue-Counter Approach Introduction Botnets are a growing scourge on the Internet. Botnets can play a role in launching adversary reconnaissance (scanning and THE BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSRESEARCHEXPERTSPROGRAMS & PROJECTSFELLOWSHIPSEVENTS To compete and thrive in the 21st century, democracies, and the United States in particular, must develop new national security and economic strategies that address the geopolitics of information. OIL: THE NEXT REVOLUTION A new study by Belfer Center Geopolitics of Energy researcher Leonardo Maugeri finds that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive whoMANAGING THE ATOM
The Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) conducts and disseminates policy-relevant research on nuclear weapons, nuclear energy, and nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. The project supports an international group of pre- and post-doctoral fellows and other experts working on these issues and helps to advance their research work through seminars, workshops, and conferences. MODERN WARFARE DESTROYS BRAINS This paper has two primary objectives. First, it will support the argument that blast related TBI is uniquely different from the more recognized brain injury known as chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) injury associated with impact trauma and therefore requires a different approach to both diagnosis and treatment. Second, it will provide recommendations for mitigating the effects of bTBI WHEN DID (AND DIDN’T) STATES PROLIFERATE? In this Project on Managing the Atom Discussion Paper, Philipp C. Bleek chronicles nuclear weapons proliferation choices throughout the nuclear age. Since the late 1930s and early 1940s, some thirty-one countries are known to have at least explored the possibility of establishing a nuclear weapons program. Seventeen of those countries launched weapons programs, and ten acquired deliverableALAN BERSIN
Alan Bersin served as Assistant Secretary for Policy & International Affairs and Chief Diplomatic Officer in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). In those capacities, Bersin led and oversaw DHS’s international engagement, served as the principal advisor to the Secretary in all matters pertaining to international affairs, and was responsible for leading the Department’s strategic THE CASE FOR OFFSHORE BALANCING: A SUPERIOR U.S. GRAND "For nearly a century, in short, offshore balancing prevented the emergence of dangerous regional hegemons and preserved a global balance of power that enhanced American security. Tellingly, when U.S. policymakers deviated from that strategy—as they did in Vietnam, where the United States had no vital interests—the result was acostly failure."
NEW THREATS, OLD TECHNOLOGY: VULNERABILITIES IN UNDERSEA This paper explores the vulnerabilities to cyber attacks of infrastructure that today carries nearly all the world's data and voice traffic: undersea communications cables. Long-standing physical vulnerabilities in cable infrastructure have been compounded by new risk found in the network management systems that monitor and controlcable operations.
CAN DEMOCRACY SURVIVE IN THE INFORMATION AGE? OKAY, SO WHAT IF IRAN DOES GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS? "Each nuclear state has behaved somewhat differently with nuclear weapons. However, history suggests that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would be less universally emboldened than the pessimists fear, but nor would it find nuclear weapons to be useless." THE BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSRESEARCHEXPERTSPROGRAMS & PROJECTSFELLOWSHIPSEVENTS To compete and thrive in the 21st century, democracies, and the United States in particular, must develop new national security and economic strategies that address the geopolitics of information. OIL: THE NEXT REVOLUTION A new study by Belfer Center Geopolitics of Energy researcher Leonardo Maugeri finds that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive whoMANAGING THE ATOM
The Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) conducts and disseminates policy-relevant research on nuclear weapons, nuclear energy, and nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. The project supports an international group of pre- and post-doctoral fellows and other experts working on these issues and helps to advance their research work through seminars, workshops, and conferences. MODERN WARFARE DESTROYS BRAINS This paper has two primary objectives. First, it will support the argument that blast related TBI is uniquely different from the more recognized brain injury known as chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) injury associated with impact trauma and therefore requires a different approach to both diagnosis and treatment. Second, it will provide recommendations for mitigating the effects of bTBI WHEN DID (AND DIDN’T) STATES PROLIFERATE? In this Project on Managing the Atom Discussion Paper, Philipp C. Bleek chronicles nuclear weapons proliferation choices throughout the nuclear age. Since the late 1930s and early 1940s, some thirty-one countries are known to have at least explored the possibility of establishing a nuclear weapons program. Seventeen of those countries launched weapons programs, and ten acquired deliverableALAN BERSIN
Alan Bersin served as Assistant Secretary for Policy & International Affairs and Chief Diplomatic Officer in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). In those capacities, Bersin led and oversaw DHS’s international engagement, served as the principal advisor to the Secretary in all matters pertaining to international affairs, and was responsible for leading the Department’s strategic THE CASE FOR OFFSHORE BALANCING: A SUPERIOR U.S. GRAND "For nearly a century, in short, offshore balancing prevented the emergence of dangerous regional hegemons and preserved a global balance of power that enhanced American security. Tellingly, when U.S. policymakers deviated from that strategy—as they did in Vietnam, where the United States had no vital interests—the result was acostly failure."
NEW THREATS, OLD TECHNOLOGY: VULNERABILITIES IN UNDERSEA This paper explores the vulnerabilities to cyber attacks of infrastructure that today carries nearly all the world's data and voice traffic: undersea communications cables. Long-standing physical vulnerabilities in cable infrastructure have been compounded by new risk found in the network management systems that monitor and controlcable operations.
CAN DEMOCRACY SURVIVE IN THE INFORMATION AGE? OKAY, SO WHAT IF IRAN DOES GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS? "Each nuclear state has behaved somewhat differently with nuclear weapons. However, history suggests that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would be less universally emboldened than the pessimists fear, but nor would it find nuclear weapons to be useless." CAN DEMOCRACY SURVIVE IN THE INFORMATION AGE? Democracy is built on the crucial compact that citizens will have access to reliable information and can use that information to participate in government, civic, and corporate decision-making. The technologies of the Information Age were largely built on the assumption that they would strengthen this compact. However, as typified by Russia’s ongoing use of information operations againstthe
TECHNOLOGY FACTSHEET: 5G Executive Summary. 5G refers to fifth-generation cellular network technology, and includes both the mobile broadband infrastructure as well as 5G devices that rely on the network. Compared to 4G (fourth-generation cellular network technology), 5G offers not only faster network speeds but also many new functions such as increasedmachine-to
BIODIVERSITY LOSS IS A KEY RISK FOR INVESTORS Awareness of biodiversity loss is increasing, but climate change still dominates investors' discourse on the environment. Joel Clement, a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, explains why we need to focus urgently on the biodiversity crisis. He also discusses why he came a whistleblower in 2017 and the aftermath of that decision. THOSE WHO DON'T INVESTIGATE THE PAST ARE DOOMED TO REPEAT The Peace Monument, also known as the Naval Monument or Civil War Sailors Monument, is framed by the Capitol dome on Capitol Hill in Washington, Jan. 4, 2021. HACKED DRONES AND BUSTED LOGISTICS ARE THE CYBER FUTURE OF U.S. Air Force Senior Airman Craig Fox, a hydraulics technician with the 726th Air Mobility Squadron, references a technical order on his laptop computer before working on a C-17 Globemaster III aircraft during snow at Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, Jan. 15, 2013. THE NEED FOR GREATER TECHNICAL TALENT IN THE GOVERNMENT: A We know government tech projects often fail. Timelines get pushed out, contractors rapidly turn over, costs increase, and, ultimately, public services fail to meet the needs of the American people—often just as they need them most. One of the major reasons for these problems is that the federal government does not have the modern technical talent necessary to deliver large-scale IT programsANNICK STETA
Annick Steta graduated in May 2021 from HKS's Mid-Career Master in Public Administration. Prior to studying at HKS, she graduated from Sciences Po Paris and HEC Paris and obtained a PhD in economics at Université Nancy 2 (France). While preparing her PhD thesis, she worked at Sciences Po Paris as a lecturer in economics and a coursecoordinator.
WHY A DIGITAL DOLLAR IS GOOD FOR THE WORLD Today, the whole of the U.S. economic system provides a much-needed public good in the form of an efficient and trustworthy financial infrastructure that supports a functioning global economy. Maintaining the dollar’s value and centrality in the global financial systems will require leadership, flexibility, and innovation. THE GOVERNMENT TECHNOLOGY SILVER BULLET: HIRING IN-HOUSE If we want to have a lasting impact on the way that our country serves its people, we need to make the most of this momentum to address the root causes beneath these repeated failures. We need to focus our efforts onto the long-term work of addressing the systemic problems that cause our most critical services to fail when they are most needed. I believe that hiring more in-house technicalPATRICIA MULONDO
Patricia Mulondo is a Master in Public Policy 2022 candidate at the Harvard Kennedy School. Prior to Harvard, she served as a civil servant initially with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and later with the Office of the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Labor at the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). There, she primarily implemented labor civil rights policy and advocated for equal work opportunities for THE BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSRESEARCHEXPERTSPROGRAMS & PROJECTSFELLOWSHIPSEVENTS To compete and thrive in the 21st century, democracies, and the United States in particular, must develop new national security and economic strategies that address the geopolitics of information. OIL: THE NEXT REVOLUTION A new study by Belfer Center Geopolitics of Energy researcher Leonardo Maugeri finds that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive whoMANAGING THE ATOM
The Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) conducts and disseminates policy-relevant research on nuclear weapons, nuclear energy, and nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. The project supports an international group of pre- and post-doctoral fellows and other experts working on these issues and helps to advance their research work through seminars, workshops, and conferences. WHEN DID (AND DIDN’T) STATES PROLIFERATE? In this Project on Managing the Atom Discussion Paper, Philipp C. Bleek chronicles nuclear weapons proliferation choices throughout the nuclear age. Since the late 1930s and early 1940s, some thirty-one countries are known to have at least explored the possibility of establishing a nuclear weapons program. Seventeen of those countries launched weapons programs, and ten acquired deliverable MODERN WARFARE DESTROYS BRAINS This paper has two primary objectives. First, it will support the argument that blast related TBI is uniquely different from the more recognized brain injury known as chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) injury associated with impact trauma and therefore requires a different approach to both diagnosis and treatment. Second, it will provide recommendations for mitigating the effects of bTBIALAN BERSIN
Alan Bersin served as Assistant Secretary for Policy & International Affairs and Chief Diplomatic Officer in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). In those capacities, Bersin led and oversaw DHS’s international engagement, served as the principal advisor to the Secretary in all matters pertaining to international affairs, and was responsible for leading the Department’s strategic THE CASE FOR OFFSHORE BALANCING: A SUPERIOR U.S. GRAND "For nearly a century, in short, offshore balancing prevented the emergence of dangerous regional hegemons and preserved a global balance of power that enhanced American security. Tellingly, when U.S. policymakers deviated from that strategy—as they did in Vietnam, where the United States had no vital interests—the result was acostly failure."
NEW THREATS, OLD TECHNOLOGY: VULNERABILITIES IN UNDERSEA This paper explores the vulnerabilities to cyber attacks of infrastructure that today carries nearly all the world's data and voice traffic: undersea communications cables. Long-standing physical vulnerabilities in cable infrastructure have been compounded by new risk found in the network management systems that monitor and controlcable operations.
CAN DEMOCRACY SURVIVE IN THE INFORMATION AGE? OKAY, SO WHAT IF IRAN DOES GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS? "Each nuclear state has behaved somewhat differently with nuclear weapons. However, history suggests that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would be less universally emboldened than the pessimists fear, but nor would it find nuclear weapons to be useless." THE BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSRESEARCHEXPERTSPROGRAMS & PROJECTSFELLOWSHIPSEVENTS To compete and thrive in the 21st century, democracies, and the United States in particular, must develop new national security and economic strategies that address the geopolitics of information. OIL: THE NEXT REVOLUTION A new study by Belfer Center Geopolitics of Energy researcher Leonardo Maugeri finds that oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020. This could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices. The findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive whoMANAGING THE ATOM
The Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) conducts and disseminates policy-relevant research on nuclear weapons, nuclear energy, and nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. The project supports an international group of pre- and post-doctoral fellows and other experts working on these issues and helps to advance their research work through seminars, workshops, and conferences. WHEN DID (AND DIDN’T) STATES PROLIFERATE? In this Project on Managing the Atom Discussion Paper, Philipp C. Bleek chronicles nuclear weapons proliferation choices throughout the nuclear age. Since the late 1930s and early 1940s, some thirty-one countries are known to have at least explored the possibility of establishing a nuclear weapons program. Seventeen of those countries launched weapons programs, and ten acquired deliverable MODERN WARFARE DESTROYS BRAINS This paper has two primary objectives. First, it will support the argument that blast related TBI is uniquely different from the more recognized brain injury known as chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) injury associated with impact trauma and therefore requires a different approach to both diagnosis and treatment. Second, it will provide recommendations for mitigating the effects of bTBIALAN BERSIN
Alan Bersin served as Assistant Secretary for Policy & International Affairs and Chief Diplomatic Officer in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). In those capacities, Bersin led and oversaw DHS’s international engagement, served as the principal advisor to the Secretary in all matters pertaining to international affairs, and was responsible for leading the Department’s strategic THE CASE FOR OFFSHORE BALANCING: A SUPERIOR U.S. GRAND "For nearly a century, in short, offshore balancing prevented the emergence of dangerous regional hegemons and preserved a global balance of power that enhanced American security. Tellingly, when U.S. policymakers deviated from that strategy—as they did in Vietnam, where the United States had no vital interests—the result was acostly failure."
NEW THREATS, OLD TECHNOLOGY: VULNERABILITIES IN UNDERSEA This paper explores the vulnerabilities to cyber attacks of infrastructure that today carries nearly all the world's data and voice traffic: undersea communications cables. Long-standing physical vulnerabilities in cable infrastructure have been compounded by new risk found in the network management systems that monitor and controlcable operations.
CAN DEMOCRACY SURVIVE IN THE INFORMATION AGE? OKAY, SO WHAT IF IRAN DOES GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS? "Each nuclear state has behaved somewhat differently with nuclear weapons. However, history suggests that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it would be less universally emboldened than the pessimists fear, but nor would it find nuclear weapons to be useless." CAN DEMOCRACY SURVIVE IN THE INFORMATION AGE? Democracy is built on the crucial compact that citizens will have access to reliable information and can use that information to participate in government, civic, and corporate decision-making. The technologies of the Information Age were largely built on the assumption that they would strengthen this compact. However, as typified by Russia’s ongoing use of information operations againstthe
COVID-19: MAKE IT THE LAST PANDEMIC Please join the Future of Diplomacy Project for a discussion on the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response’s (IPPPR) recent report "COVID-19: Make It the Last Pandemic" with Panel members Dr. Joanne Liu, former International President of Doctors Without Borders; David Miliband, President and Chief Executive Officer of the International Rescue Committee; and Ambassador TECHNOLOGY FACTSHEET: 5G The Technology Factsheet Series offers a brief overview of the technical aspects of salient technologies and their policy relevance for Congressional members and their staff. THOSE WHO DON'T INVESTIGATE THE PAST ARE DOOMED TO REPEAT The Peace Monument, also known as the Naval Monument or Civil War Sailors Monument, is framed by the Capitol dome on Capitol Hill in Washington, Jan. 4, 2021. BIODIVERSITY LOSS IS A KEY RISK FOR INVESTORS Awareness of biodiversity loss is increasing, but climate change still dominates investors' discourse on the environment. Joel Clement, a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, explains why we need to focus urgently on the biodiversity crisis. He also discusses why he came a whistleblower in 2017 and the aftermath of that decision. THE NEED FOR GREATER TECHNICAL TALENT IN THE GOVERNMENT: A We know government tech projects often fail. Timelines get pushed out, contractors rapidly turn over, costs increase, and, ultimately, public services fail to meet the needs of the American people—often just as they need them most. One of the major reasons for these problems is that the federal government does not have the modern technical talent necessary to deliver large-scale IT programs HACKED DRONES AND BUSTED LOGISTICS ARE THE CYBER FUTURE OF U.S. Air Force Senior Airman Craig Fox, a hydraulics technician with the 726th Air Mobility Squadron, references a technical order on his laptop computer before working on a C-17 Globemaster III aircraft during snow at Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, Jan. 15, 2013. THE GOVERNMENT TECHNOLOGY SILVER BULLET: HIRING IN-HOUSE If we want to have a lasting impact on the way that our country serves its people, we need to make the most of this momentum to address the root causes beneath these repeated failures. We need to focus our efforts onto the long-term work of addressing the systemic problems that cause our most critical services to fail when they are most needed. I believe that hiring more in-house technical WHY A DIGITAL DOLLAR IS GOOD FOR THE WORLD Today, the whole of the U.S. economic system provides a much-needed public good in the form of an efficient and trustworthy financial infrastructure that supports a functioning global economy. Maintaining the dollar’s value and centrality in the global financial systems will require leadership, flexibility, and innovation. THINKING FAST AND SLOW: PROVOCATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL Speakers: Hyun-Binn Cho, Assistant Professor in Political Science and International Studies, The College of New Jersey; Associate, Project on Managing the Atom; Alex Yu-Ting Lin, Research Fellow, International Security Program Verbal threats between President Trump and Kim Jong Un, the killing of an Iranian general by a U.S. drone strike, and maritime clashes in the South China Sea have allMenu
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THE GEOPOLITICS OF INFORMATION To compete and thrive in the 21st century, democracies, and the United States in particular, must develop new national security and economic strategies that address the geopolitics of information. In the 20th century, market capitalist democracies geared infrastructure, energy, trade, and even social policy to protect and advance that era’s key source of power—manufacturing. In this century, democracies must better account for information geopolitics across all dimensions of domestic policy and national strategy.AP
PEOPLE POWER IS RISING IN AFRICA The authors analyze the trend of nonviolent overthrows of dictatorships in Africa.AP Photo/Andy Wong
THE TRIANGLE IN THE LONG GAME The purpose of this paper is to analyze how China’s new power is reaching Europe, the challenges that it poses, and the European responses to this new reality. This process has to be examined in the context of the current strategic competition between China and the U.S. and its reflection on the transatlantic relationship. SUMMER 2019 NEWSLETTER PHOTOS Photos from the Summer 2019 Belfer Center newsletter.* Experts
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AP Photo/Patrick SemanskyThe Can-Do Power
Restoring American leadership must include the more basic task of showing that the United States is a capable problem solver once more, Samantha Power writes.Read More AP Photo/Patrick SemanskyIN THE SPOTLIGHT
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Russia’s decision not to employ leverage to stop the conflict in its early stages made a lasting impression on its allies. More from Simon Saradzhyan AP Photo/J. David Ake, File CLIMATE CHANGE: BIDEN SHOULD ESTABLISH A CARBON PRICE BENCHMARK* Joseph E. Aldy
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SECURITY RESEARCH RSS __ Wikimedia CC/Xnatedawgx THE EMOTIONALLY CHALLENGING NEXT PHASE OF THE PANDEMIC Juliette Kayyem details why the end of summer is a bitter reminder: America's coronavirus ordeal won’t end when 2020 does.AP/Eugene Hoshiko
75 YEARS AFTER HIROSHIMA, HERE ARE 4 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT NUCLEARDISARMAMENT EFFORTS
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AP Photo/Bob Daugherty ARMS CONTROL: FOR AND BY EUROPE Authors: * Alexander K. Bollfrass* Mariana Budjeryn
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SEVEN BAD OPTIONS TO COUNTER STATE SPONSORSHIP OF PROXIES Author: * Sara PlanaSECURITY EXPERTS
DARA KAY COHEN
Ford Foundation Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School; Faculty, International Security Program; Member of the Board,Belfer Center
ALI AHMAD
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DIPLOMACY RESEARCH RSS __ Wikicommons/Vince Musi THE INDISPENSABLE POWER When we emerge finally from the grip of the coronavirus, Americans will need to account for a public-health disaster that has killed well over 100,000 people to date and shuttered nearly every institution in our society (including Harvard) for much of the spring and into thesummer.
TASS Russian News AgencyPINNING DOWN PUTIN
Author: * Victoria Nuland REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino NAVIGATING THE GROWING RUSSIA-CHINA STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT Authors: * Paula J. Dobriansky* Stephen Hadley
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BONDING OVER BEIJING Authors: * Torrey Taussig* Erik Brattberg
DIPLOMACY EXPERTS
RT. HON. DOUGLAS ALEXANDER Non-Resident Senior Fellow, The Future of Diplomacy ProjectAMIR LEVI
Senior Fellow, MIddle East InitiativeJULIE BISHOP
Fisher Family Fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project More Diplomacy Research More Diplomacy Experts ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH RSS __ Wikimedia CC/Algkalv HOW OUR NEW VIRTUAL WORLD CAN EMPOWER THE ARCTIC Halla Hrund Logadóttir writes that an online education experiment which had been under development for years — at the speed of a medium-size turtle — became the new norm in an instant because of the COVID-19 disruption. Saurav Kundu/Unsplash SHOULD REGULATORS MAKE ELECTRIC UTILITIES PAY CUSTOMERS FOR POORRELIABILITY?
Authors: * Shefali Khanna* Kevin Rowe
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IS CHINA'S HYDROGEN ECONOMY COMING? Authors: * Nicola De Blasio * Fridolin PflugmannRTI International
‘CLEAN WATER FOR CAROLINA KIDS’ PROGRAM WINS HARVARD’S ROY AWARD FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PARTNERSHIP Author: * Amanda Sardonis ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT EXPERTS HALLA HRUND LOGADÓTTIR Fellow, Environment and Natural Resources Program ; Co-Founder, Arctic Initiative ; Co-Director, Arctic InitiativeCECILIA SPRINGER
Associate, Environment and Natural Resources Program / Science, Technology and Public Policy Program ALEJANDRO NUÑEZ-JIMENEZ Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Environment and Natural Resources Program/Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program More Energy & Environment Research More Energy & Environment Experts SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH RSS __ THE TECH THAT’S CHAMPIONING THE PUBLIC GOOD While some technologies are tearing us apart, the Tech Spotlight finalists, selected from over 200 submissions worldwide, are helping shape a better future. STAR MAX File Photo via AP/John Nacion THE TWITTER HACKS HAVE TO STOP Author: * Bruce Schneier CENTER EXPERTS REFLECT ON 75TH ANNIVERSARY OF HIROSHIMA BOMBING Authors: * Graham Allison* Matthew Bunn
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THE PUBLIC-PURPOSE CONSORTIUM: ENABLING EMERGING TECHNOLOGY WITH APUBLIC MISSION
Author: * Jake Taylor SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EXPERTSJOHN P. HOLDREN
Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy; Co-Director, Science, Technology and Public Policy Program; Member of the Board, Belfer Center; President Obama's Science Advisor and Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (January 2009 –January 2017)
VENKATESH "VENKY" NARAYANAMURTI Benjamin Peirce Professor of Technology and Public Policy, Engineering and Applied Sciences, and Physics, Emeritus; Member of the Board,Belfer Center
REBECCA DAVIS GIBBONS Associate, Project on Managing the Atom; Former Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program,2018–2020
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Benn Craig/Belfer Center SHAPING ORGANIZATIONAL STRATEGY An original member of the Belfer Center’s Defending Digital Democracy team, Meredith Berger is now a senior advisor at a strategicadvisory firm.
AP Photo/Manish Swarup BUILDING RELATIONS WITH INDIA U.S. Ambassador to India Kenneth Juster is a former Fisher Family Fellow at the Belfer Center’s Future of Diplomacy Project. AP Photo/Cliff Owen, File GUIDING THE FEDERAL RESERVE Harvard PhD Lael Brainard has served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System since June 2014. Benn Craig/Belfer Center MENTORING FUTURE LEADERS A former HKS National Security Fellow and current Belfer Center Senior Fellow, Gen. Vincent Brooks commanded all U.S. forces in Korea until2019.
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