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PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
ABOUT / CONTACT
What matters in tech? What’s going on, and what will happen next? I’ve spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, butTHE AMAZON MACHINE
If the machine is designed to do X, it will struggle at Y no matter how clever the people. A lot of the story of Amazon for the last 20 years is of how many Ys turned out to be Xs - how many categories that people thought could not be sold online and could not be sold as commodities turned out to be both. Amazon Benedict Evans 12 December2017.
IS TESLA DISRUPTIVE? So far, we’ve been talking about the electric drivetrain itself - the ‘skateboard’. It seems more likely that this disrupts the OEMs’ supply chain than the OEMs themselves. However, there is a whole other class of aspects of a Tesla that are different, both inside the car and in BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
ABOUT / CONTACT
What matters in tech? What’s going on, and what will happen next? I’ve spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, butTHE AMAZON MACHINE
If the machine is designed to do X, it will struggle at Y no matter how clever the people. A lot of the story of Amazon for the last 20 years is of how many Ys turned out to be Xs - how many categories that people thought could not be sold online and could not be sold as commodities turned out to be both. Amazon Benedict Evans 12 December2017.
IS TESLA DISRUPTIVE? So far, we’ve been talking about the electric drivetrain itself - the ‘skateboard’. It seems more likely that this disrupts the OEMs’ supply chain than the OEMs themselves. However, there is a whole other class of aspects of a Tesla that are different, both inside the car and inPRESENTATIONS
Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is being overturned, and software is remaking everything from cars to pharma. ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry.PAYING FOR NEWS
Paying for news. Newspaper revenue really started to collapse well over a decade ago, and we've been discussing what to do about it for almost as long. None of the issues have changed much: newspapers had an oligopoly of attention and an oligopoly of a certain kind of advertising reach, and the internet removed both of these.ABOUT / CONTACT
What matters in tech? What’s going on, and what will happen next? I’ve spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. LOCKDOWN TAKES ECOMMERCE TO 40% Lockdown takes ecommerce to 40%. The growth of ecommerce has always fit the old line about a frog in boiling water. Every year, the share of retail taken by ecommerce rose a little higher, and physical retailers got a little more uncomfortable (and recently have started failing), but the growth in any given year was never dramatic enoughto
RESETTING THE APP STORE Resetting the App Store. Apple launched the App Store in 2008, and tightened up the payment rules in 2011, and we’ve been arguing about it ever since. In many ways the issues haven’t really changed - it’s just that the numbers got a lot bigger. Almost everyone understands that some kind of locked-down, sandboxed software modelhas been a
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, WHAT'S AMAZON'S MARKET SHARE? 35% OR 5%? Amazon won’t either. Still, if you disagree, and do think that Amazon will go much further towards taking over ‘everything’, then your definition of Amazon’s market share has to be its share of, well, ‘everything’. Today, that’s around 6%, not 35% or 50%. Amazon, Regulation, Ecommerce Benedict Evans 19 December 2019. 0Likes.
THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work LISTS ARE THE NEW SEARCH All search grows until it requires curation. — Benedict Evans (@BenedictEvans) December 18, 2015. Hence, I always thought the most appealing part of Flipboard was the manually curated directory of sites to follow. It's a list of lists, but it isn't trying to encompass everything, and so, unlike Yahoo, it isn't unmanageably big. BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING What matters in tech? Newsletter, essays and presentations by BenedictEvans.
PRESENTATIONS
Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is being overturned, and software is remaking everything from cars to pharma. BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessarythroat clearing.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Hence, some of the swings in the ecommerce percentages reflect the fact that physical retailers were closed (alway check your denominators!) - but we’re clearly heading past that now. This chart shows the impact of the UK lockdown on overall retail, but ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Consumers spent $120bn on Shopify in 2020 - double the figure for 2019 and over 40% of Amazon’s competing business. What does that tell us about competing with Amazon? Problems that were already solved? And most of all, about brands and consumers going direct? ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Amazon has scaled indefinitely by treating every product as an interchangeable packet, and by not caring what they are, only what they weigh. At a fundamental level, it doesn’t know what it sells. BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING What matters in tech? Newsletter, essays and presentations by BenedictEvans.
PRESENTATIONS
Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is being overturned, and software is remaking everything from cars to pharma. BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessarythroat clearing.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Hence, some of the swings in the ecommerce percentages reflect the fact that physical retailers were closed (alway check your denominators!) - but we’re clearly heading past that now. This chart shows the impact of the UK lockdown on overall retail, but ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Consumers spent $120bn on Shopify in 2020 - double the figure for 2019 and over 40% of Amazon’s competing business. What does that tell us about competing with Amazon? Problems that were already solved? And most of all, about brands and consumers going direct? ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Amazon has scaled indefinitely by treating every product as an interchangeable packet, and by not caring what they are, only what they weigh. At a fundamental level, it doesn’t know what it sells. THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING In the last 5-6 years, machine learning has gone from ‘crazy idea from the 1980s’ to ‘software’. That has come with several waves of deployment and several waves of company creation, as we work out what do do with it. It’s the new SQL. SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Events are a bundle of content, networking and meetings, and aggregate people in one place at one time. When you try to take this online, half of it breaks and most of it makes no sense bundled together. We need new tools and new ways to think about networks, not ‘virtualconferences’.
ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Amazon has scaled indefinitely by treating every product as an interchangeable packet, and by not caring what they are, only what they weigh. At a fundamental level, it doesn’t know what it sells. RESETTING THE APP STORE We’ve been arguing about this for a decade, but now something is going to change, partly because of Epic’s lawsuit (which it might or might not win) but much more importantly because the EU has a whole set of competition investigations into the sandbox, the store and the payment system, and is highly unlikely to accept the status quo.When Apple launched the store in July 2008 it had only WHAT COMES AFTER SMARTPHONES? For as long as most people can remember, the tech industry has had a new centre roughly every fifteen years. A model of computing sets the agenda, and the company or companies that win that model dominate the industry, and everyone is scared of them, and then a new model comes along, forms a new centre, and the old model stops mattering. WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products,ARE YOU A SEAL?
There is a theory that when a shark bites a surfer, this is because they look like a seal, especially from 50 feet underwater. The shark circles, comes close, and sometimes it takes a bite out of a leg, and sometimes it takes a bite out of the surfboard and gets a mouthful offibreglass.
LTE AND DC-HSPA+
I've been pondering Apple's rather complex implementation of LTE for the past few days. As has been widely observed, it's chosen not to implement the LTE bands (800MHz and 2600MHz) that the majority of European operators are planning to deploy in 2013 and 2014 (and which Vodafone Germany, Telia and a few others actually do have running now), focusing instead on the 1800MHz band that EE LISTS ARE THE NEW SEARCH Hence, I always thought the most appealing part of Flipboard was the manually curated directory of sites to follow. It's a list of lists, but it isn't trying to encompass everything, and so, unlike Yahoo, it isn't unmanageably big. HOW LONG DO ANDROID PHONES LAST? The cycle clearly seems to be lengthening, but it's not clear yet how much. Meanwhile, we don't have comparable data for iPhones, but the fact that around a third of the active base is on the iPhone 4 or 4S does rather speak for itself: if anything the iPhone is on longer than 24 months, especially if you take 2nd hand into account (though quite a lot of that second-hand seems to be exported BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
AMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING There is an easy way to get this wrong if you’re not careful. If you only look at AWS and total operating profit, or aggregate the numbers that Amazon reports into AWS and ‘Other’, the resulting numbers will be misleading: the losses for RoW balance out the profit in the USA and make it look as though AWS is the only profitable business, especially from 2015 to 2017. THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work WHAT'S AMAZON'S MARKET SHARE? 35% OR 5%? Amazon won’t either. Still, if you disagree, and do think that Amazon will go much further towards taking over ‘everything’, then your definition of Amazon’s market share has to be its share of, well, ‘everything’. Today, that’s around 6%, not 35% or 50%. Amazon, Regulation, Ecommerce Benedict Evans 19 December 2019. 0Likes.
INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
AMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING There is an easy way to get this wrong if you’re not careful. If you only look at AWS and total operating profit, or aggregate the numbers that Amazon reports into AWS and ‘Other’, the resulting numbers will be misleading: the losses for RoW balance out the profit in the USA and make it look as though AWS is the only profitable business, especially from 2015 to 2017. THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work WHAT'S AMAZON'S MARKET SHARE? 35% OR 5%? Amazon won’t either. Still, if you disagree, and do think that Amazon will go much further towards taking over ‘everything’, then your definition of Amazon’s market share has to be its share of, well, ‘everything’. Today, that’s around 6%, not 35% or 50%. Amazon, Regulation, Ecommerce Benedict Evans 19 December 2019. 0Likes.
INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, butPAYING FOR NEWS
Paying for news. Newspaper revenue really started to collapse well over a decade ago, and we've been discussing what to do about it for almost as long. None of the issues have changed much: newspapers had an oligopoly of attention and an oligopoly of a certain kind of advertising reach, and the internet removed both of these.ABOUT / CONTACT
What matters in tech? What’s going on, and what will happen next? I’ve spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital.OUTGROWING SOFTWARE
Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Outgrowing software. Source: Walmart. Ten years ago Marc Andreessen wrote an article in the WSJ called ‘ Software is eating the world ’, arguing that there was a fundamental shift in the role that software plays in the economy. In the past, IBM, Oracle or Microsoftsold
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work LOCKDOWN TAKES ECOMMERCE TO 40% Lockdown takes ecommerce to 40%. The growth of ecommerce has always fit the old line about a frog in boiling water. Every year, the share of retail taken by ecommerce rose a little higher, and physical retailers got a little more uncomfortable (and recently have started failing), but the growth in any given year was never dramatic enoughto
RETAIL, RENT AND THINGS THAT DON'T SCALE Retail, rent and things that don't scale. Morioka Shoten. I generally think about retail as sitting on a spectrum from logistics to experience. At the logistics end, you know exactly what you want and retail’s job is to provide the most efficient way to get it. At the experience end, you don’t know, and retail’s job is to help you,with
IS CONTENT MODERATION A DEAD END? Is content moderation a dead end? In the late 1990s, Microsoft was the evil empire, and a big part of ‘evil’ was that it was too closed - it made things too hard for developers. But then came the great malware explosion, which at one point shut down half the Pentagon, and we realised that the real problem was that Windows and Office were PRESENTATION: THE END OF THE BEGINNING Presentation: The End of the Beginning. I gave this presentation at a16z’s annual tech conference last week. YouTube. Close to three quarters of all the adults on earth now have a smartphone, and most of the rest will get one in the next few years. However, the use of thisconnectivity is
LISTS ARE THE NEW SEARCH All search grows until it requires curation. — Benedict Evans (@BenedictEvans) December 18, 2015. Hence, I always thought the most appealing part of Flipboard was the manually curated directory of sites to follow. It's a list of lists, but it isn't trying to encompass everything, and so, unlike Yahoo, it isn't unmanageably big. BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Ecommerce, Advertising, Regulation Benedict Evans 24 October 2020. The ecommerce surge. Both the UK and (today) the USA have given official statistics on how ecommerce and retail have changed during lockdown. The headline numbers are pretty dramatic. The UK went from 20% ecommerce penetration to over 30% in two months, and the USA from 17%to 22%.
OUTGROWING SOFTWARE
Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Outgrowing software. Source: Walmart. Ten years ago Marc Andreessen wrote an article in the WSJ called ‘ Software is eating the world ’, arguing that there was a fundamental shift in the role that software plays in the economy. In the past, IBM, Oracle or Microsoftsold
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Advertising, Apple Benedict Evans 25 May 2021. Can Apple change ads? 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes RESETTING THE APP STORE Resetting the App Store. Apple launched the App Store in 2008, and tightened up the payment rules in 2011, and we’ve been arguing about it ever since. In many ways the issues haven’t really changed - it’s just that the numbers got a lot bigger. Almost everyone understands that some kind of locked-down, sandboxed software modelhas been a
ARE YOU A SEAL?
Are you a seal? There is a theory that when a shark bites a surfer, this is because they look like a seal, especially from 50 feet underwater. The shark circles, comes close, and sometimes it takes a bite out of a leg, and sometimes it takes a bite out of the surfboard and gets a mouthful of fibreglass. Generally, it realises the mistakeand
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work IS CONTENT MODERATION A DEAD END? Is content moderation a dead end? In the late 1990s, Microsoft was the evil empire, and a big part of ‘evil’ was that it was too closed - it made things too hard for developers. But then came the great malware explosion, which at one point shut down half the Pentagon, and we realised that the real problem was that Windows and Office were DOES AMAZON MAKE MORE FROM ADS THAN AWS? At the top end, if we assume that $20bn of Amazon’s $21.5bn ‘Ads and other’ was actually ads, and it matched Google’s operating margin, that would be $13.6bn of operating income, the same as AWS. It could also be, say, $5bn lower - which would be in line with all of Amazon North America. Either way, it’s big, and growing,LTE AND DC-HSPA+
Of course, LTE is more efficient than DC-HSPA and over time LTE speeds (with new handsets) will improve substantially. But today, differences in coverage and congestion will create bigger differences. In other words, rather more iPhone 5 customers will have DC-HSPA than LTE, and they'll probably not notice the difference. BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Ecommerce, Advertising, Regulation Benedict Evans 24 October 2020. The ecommerce surge. Both the UK and (today) the USA have given official statistics on how ecommerce and retail have changed during lockdown. The headline numbers are pretty dramatic. The UK went from 20% ecommerce penetration to over 30% in two months, and the USA from 17%to 22%.
OUTGROWING SOFTWARE
Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Outgrowing software. Source: Walmart. Ten years ago Marc Andreessen wrote an article in the WSJ called ‘ Software is eating the world ’, arguing that there was a fundamental shift in the role that software plays in the economy. In the past, IBM, Oracle or Microsoftsold
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Advertising, Apple Benedict Evans 25 May 2021. Can Apple change ads? 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes RESETTING THE APP STORE Resetting the App Store. Apple launched the App Store in 2008, and tightened up the payment rules in 2011, and we’ve been arguing about it ever since. In many ways the issues haven’t really changed - it’s just that the numbers got a lot bigger. Almost everyone understands that some kind of locked-down, sandboxed software modelhas been a
ARE YOU A SEAL?
Are you a seal? There is a theory that when a shark bites a surfer, this is because they look like a seal, especially from 50 feet underwater. The shark circles, comes close, and sometimes it takes a bite out of a leg, and sometimes it takes a bite out of the surfboard and gets a mouthful of fibreglass. Generally, it realises the mistakeand
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work IS CONTENT MODERATION A DEAD END? Is content moderation a dead end? In the late 1990s, Microsoft was the evil empire, and a big part of ‘evil’ was that it was too closed - it made things too hard for developers. But then came the great malware explosion, which at one point shut down half the Pentagon, and we realised that the real problem was that Windows and Office were DOES AMAZON MAKE MORE FROM ADS THAN AWS? At the top end, if we assume that $20bn of Amazon’s $21.5bn ‘Ads and other’ was actually ads, and it matched Google’s operating margin, that would be $13.6bn of operating income, the same as AWS. It could also be, say, $5bn lower - which would be in line with all of Amazon North America. Either way, it’s big, and growing,LTE AND DC-HSPA+
Of course, LTE is more efficient than DC-HSPA and over time LTE speeds (with new handsets) will improve substantially. But today, differences in coverage and congestion will create bigger differences. In other words, rather more iPhone 5 customers will have DC-HSPA than LTE, and they'll probably not notice the difference. BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Ecommerce, Advertising, Regulation Benedict Evans 24 October 2020. The ecommerce surge. Both the UK and (today) the USA have given official statistics on how ecommerce and retail have changed during lockdown. The headline numbers are pretty dramatic. The UK went from 20% ecommerce penetration to over 30% in two months, and the USA from 17%to 22%.
OUTGROWING SOFTWARE
Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Outgrowing software. Source: Walmart. Ten years ago Marc Andreessen wrote an article in the WSJ called ‘ Software is eating the world ’, arguing that there was a fundamental shift in the role that software plays in the economy. In the past, IBM, Oracle or Microsoftsold
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Advertising, Apple Benedict Evans 25 May 2021. Can Apple change ads? 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes RESETTING THE APP STORE Resetting the App Store. Apple launched the App Store in 2008, and tightened up the payment rules in 2011, and we’ve been arguing about it ever since. In many ways the issues haven’t really changed - it’s just that the numbers got a lot bigger. Almost everyone understands that some kind of locked-down, sandboxed software modelhas been a
ARE YOU A SEAL?
Are you a seal? There is a theory that when a shark bites a surfer, this is because they look like a seal, especially from 50 feet underwater. The shark circles, comes close, and sometimes it takes a bite out of a leg, and sometimes it takes a bite out of the surfboard and gets a mouthful of fibreglass. Generally, it realises the mistakeand
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work IS CONTENT MODERATION A DEAD END? Is content moderation a dead end? In the late 1990s, Microsoft was the evil empire, and a big part of ‘evil’ was that it was too closed - it made things too hard for developers. But then came the great malware explosion, which at one point shut down half the Pentagon, and we realised that the real problem was that Windows and Office were DOES AMAZON MAKE MORE FROM ADS THAN AWS? At the top end, if we assume that $20bn of Amazon’s $21.5bn ‘Ads and other’ was actually ads, and it matched Google’s operating margin, that would be $13.6bn of operating income, the same as AWS. It could also be, say, $5bn lower - which would be in line with all of Amazon North America. Either way, it’s big, and growing,LTE AND DC-HSPA+
Of course, LTE is more efficient than DC-HSPA and over time LTE speeds (with new handsets) will improve substantially. But today, differences in coverage and congestion will create bigger differences. In other words, rather more iPhone 5 customers will have DC-HSPA than LTE, and they'll probably not notice the difference. BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Ecommerce, Advertising, Regulation Benedict Evans 24 October 2020. The ecommerce surge. Both the UK and (today) the USA have given official statistics on how ecommerce and retail have changed during lockdown. The headline numbers are pretty dramatic. The UK went from 20% ecommerce penetration to over 30% in two months, and the USA from 17%to 22%.
OUTGROWING SOFTWARE
Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Outgrowing software. Source: Walmart. Ten years ago Marc Andreessen wrote an article in the WSJ called ‘ Software is eating the world ’, arguing that there was a fundamental shift in the role that software plays in the economy. In the past, IBM, Oracle or Microsoftsold
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Advertising, Apple Benedict Evans 25 May 2021. Can Apple change ads? 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes RESETTING THE APP STORE Resetting the App Store. Apple launched the App Store in 2008, and tightened up the payment rules in 2011, and we’ve been arguing about it ever since. In many ways the issues haven’t really changed - it’s just that the numbers got a lot bigger. Almost everyone understands that some kind of locked-down, sandboxed software modelhas been a
ARE YOU A SEAL?
Are you a seal? There is a theory that when a shark bites a surfer, this is because they look like a seal, especially from 50 feet underwater. The shark circles, comes close, and sometimes it takes a bite out of a leg, and sometimes it takes a bite out of the surfboard and gets a mouthful of fibreglass. Generally, it realises the mistakeand
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work IS CONTENT MODERATION A DEAD END? Is content moderation a dead end? In the late 1990s, Microsoft was the evil empire, and a big part of ‘evil’ was that it was too closed - it made things too hard for developers. But then came the great malware explosion, which at one point shut down half the Pentagon, and we realised that the real problem was that Windows and Office were DOES AMAZON MAKE MORE FROM ADS THAN AWS? At the top end, if we assume that $20bn of Amazon’s $21.5bn ‘Ads and other’ was actually ads, and it matched Google’s operating margin, that would be $13.6bn of operating income, the same as AWS. It could also be, say, $5bn lower - which would be in line with all of Amazon North America. Either way, it’s big, and growing,LTE AND DC-HSPA+
Of course, LTE is more efficient than DC-HSPA and over time LTE speeds (with new handsets) will improve substantially. But today, differences in coverage and congestion will create bigger differences. In other words, rather more iPhone 5 customers will have DC-HSPA than LTE, and they'll probably not notice the difference.No results found.
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BENEDICT EVANS
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Sep 9, 2019
Artificial Intelligence Face recognition, bad people and bad dataSep 9, 2019
Artificial Intelligence We worry about face recognition just as we worried about databases - we worry what happens if they contain bad data and we worry what bad people might do with themSep 9, 2019
Artificial IntelligenceJul 31, 2019
Television
Netflix is not a tech companyJul 31, 2019
Television
Like Sky before it, Netflix is a television company using tech as a crowbar for market entry. The tech has to be good, but it’s still fundamentally a commodity, and all of the questions that matter are TV questions. The same applies to Tesla, and indeed to many other companies using software to enter other industries, especially D2C - what are the questions that matter?Jul 31, 2019
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Jul 26, 2019
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Amazon as experimentJul 26, 2019
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I sometimes think that if you could look in the safe behind Jeff Bezos’s desk, instead of the sports almanac from Back to the Future you’d find an Encyclopedia of Retail, written in maybe 1985. There would be Post-It notes on every page, and every one of those notes has been turned into a team or and maybe a product.Jul 26, 2019
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Jul 19, 2019
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Computers that can seeJul 19, 2019
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Computer vision turns imaging into a universal input - it lets computers see. So what kinds of things will become vision problems, and how does that change Google or Instagram?Jul 19, 2019
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May 28, 2019
Mobile
The end of mobile
May 28, 2019
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5bn people have a mobile phone now, and 4bn have a smartphone. Time tostop making charts.
May 28, 2019
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* Work & Productivity ------------------------- Views expressed in “content” (including posts, podcasts, videos) linked on this website or posted in social media and other platforms (collectively, “content distribution outlets”) are my own and are not the views of AH Capital Management, L.L.C. (“a16z”) or its respective affiliates. AH Capital Management is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any special skill or training. The posts are not directed to any investors or potential investors, and do not constitute an offer to sell -- or a solicitation of an offer to buy -- any securities, and may not be used or relied upon in evaluating the merits of any investment. The content should not be construed as or relied upon in any manner as investment, legal, tax, or other advice. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Any charts provided here are for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Certain information contained in here has been obtained from third-party sources. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, I have not independently verified such information and makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Under no circumstances should any posts or other information provided on this website -- or on associated content distribution outlets -- be construed as an offer soliciting the purchase or sale of any security or interest in any pooled investment vehicle sponsored, discussed, or mentioned by a16z personnel. Nor should it be construed as an offer to provide investment advisory services; an offer to invest in an a16z-managed pooled investment vehicle will be made separately and only by means of the confidential offering documents of the specific pooled investment vehicles -- which should be read in their entirety, and only to those who, among other requirements, meet certain qualifications under federal securities laws. Such investors, defined as accredited investors and qualified purchasers, are generally deemed capable of evaluating the merits and risks of prospective investments and financial matters. There can be no assurances that a16z’s investment objectives will be achieved or investment strategies will be successful. Any investment in a vehicle managed by a16z involves a high degree of risk including the risk that the entire amount invested is lost. Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described are not representative of all investments in vehicles managed by a16z and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by funds managed by a16z is available at https://a16z.com/investments/. Excluded from this list are investments for which the issuer has not provided permission for a16z to disclose publicly as well as unannounced investments in publicly traded digital assets. Past results of Andreessen Horowitz’s investments, pooled investment vehicles, or investment strategies are not necessarily indicative offuture results.
Please see https://a16z.com/disclosures for additional importantinformation.
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I’ve been doing a newsletter every Sunday since 2013 - my notes for the week on the news that actually matters and what it might mean, plus any new blog posts here. There are now around 125,000 subscribers. You should sign up too - apparently it's pretty good.Email Address
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TOPICS
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* Work & Productivity -------------------------Benedict Evans
Views expressed in “content” (including posts, podcasts, videos) linked on this website or posted in social media and other platforms (collectively, “content distribution outlets”) are my own and are not the views of AH Capital Management, L.L.C. (“a16z”) or its respective affiliates. AH Capital Management is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any special skill or training. The posts are not directed to any investors or potential investors, and do not constitute an offer to sell -- or a solicitation of an offer to buy -- any securities, and may not be used or relied upon in evaluating the merits of any investment. The content should not be construed as or relied upon in any manner as investment, legal, tax, or other advice. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Any charts provided here are for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Certain information contained in here has been obtained from third-party sources. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, I have not independently verified such information and makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Under no circumstances should any posts or other information provided on this website -- or on associated content distribution outlets -- be construed as an offer soliciting the purchase or sale of any security or interest in any pooled investment vehicle sponsored, discussed, or mentioned by a16z personnel. Nor should it be construed as an offer to provide investment advisory services; an offer to invest in an a16z-managed pooled investment vehicle will be made separately and only by means of the confidential offering documents of the specific pooled investment vehicles -- which should be read in their entirety, and only to those who, among other requirements, meet certain qualifications under federal securities laws. Such investors, defined as accredited investors and qualified purchasers, are generally deemed capable of evaluating the merits and risks of prospective investments and financial matters. There can be no assurances that a16z’s investment objectives will be achieved or investment strategies will be successful. Any investment in a vehicle managed by a16z involves a high degree of risk including the risk that the entire amount invested is lost. Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described are not representative of all investments in vehicles managed by a16z and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by funds managed by a16z is available at https://a16z.com/investments/. Excluded from this list are investments for which the issuer has not provided permission for a16z to disclose publicly as well as unannounced investments in publicly traded digital assets. Past results of Andreessen Horowitz’s investments, pooled investment vehicles, or investment strategies are not necessarily indicative offuture results.
Please see https://a16z.com/disclosures for additional importantinformation.
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