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PRESENTATIONS
Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is being overturned, and software is remaking everything from cars to pharma. ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Ecommerce, Advertising, Regulation Benedict Evans 24 October 2020. The ecommerce surge. Both the UK and (today) the USA have given official statistics on how ecommerce and retail have changed during lockdown. The headline numbers are pretty dramatic. The UK went from 20% ecommerce penetration to over 30% in two months, and the USA from 17%to 22%.
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is being overturned, and software is remaking everything from cars to pharma. ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Ecommerce, Advertising, Regulation Benedict Evans 24 October 2020. The ecommerce surge. Both the UK and (today) the USA have given official statistics on how ecommerce and retail have changed during lockdown. The headline numbers are pretty dramatic. The UK went from 20% ecommerce penetration to over 30% in two months, and the USA from 17%to 22%.
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Ecommerce, Advertising, Regulation Benedict Evans 24 October 2020. The ecommerce surge. Both the UK and (today) the USA have given official statistics on how ecommerce and retail have changed during lockdown. The headline numbers are pretty dramatic. The UK went from 20% ecommerce penetration to over 30% in two months, and the USA from 17%to 22%.
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products,ARE YOU A SEAL?
Are you a seal? There is a theory that when a shark bites a surfer, this is because they look like a seal, especially from 50 feet underwater. The shark circles, comes close, and sometimes it takes a bite out of a leg, and sometimes it takes a bite out of the surfboard and gets a mouthful of fibreglass. Generally, it realises the mistakeand
WHAT COMES AFTER SMARTPHONES? What comes after smartphones? For as long as most people can remember, the tech industry has had a new centre roughly every fifteen years. A model of computing sets the agenda, and the company or companies that win that model dominate the industry, and everyone is scared of them, and then a new model comes along, forms a new centre, and the old LOCKDOWN TAKES ECOMMERCE TO 40% Lockdown takes ecommerce to 40%. The growth of ecommerce has always fit the old line about a frog in boiling water. Every year, the share of retail taken by ecommerce rose a little higher, and physical retailers got a little more uncomfortable (and recently have started failing), but the growth in any given year was never dramatic enoughto
THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work WHAT'S AMAZON'S MARKET SHARE? 35% OR 5%? Amazon won’t either. Still, if you disagree, and do think that Amazon will go much further towards taking over ‘everything’, then your definition of Amazon’s market share has to be its share of, well, ‘everything’. Today, that’s around 6%, not 35% or 50%. Amazon, Regulation, Ecommerce Benedict Evans 19 December 2019. 0Likes.
LTE AND DC-HSPA+
Of course, LTE is more efficient than DC-HSPA and over time LTE speeds (with new handsets) will improve substantially. But today, differences in coverage and congestion will create bigger differences. In other words, rather more iPhone 5 customers will have DC-HSPA than LTE, and they'll probably not notice the difference. LISTS ARE THE NEW SEARCH All search grows until it requires curation. — Benedict Evans (@BenedictEvans) December 18, 2015. Hence, I always thought the most appealing part of Flipboard was the manually curated directory of sites to follow. It's a list of lists, but it isn't trying to encompass everything, and so, unlike Yahoo, it isn't unmanageably big. BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
AMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING There is an easy way to get this wrong if you’re not careful. If you only look at AWS and total operating profit, or aggregate the numbers that Amazon reports into AWS and ‘Other’, the resulting numbers will be misleading: the losses for RoW balance out the profit in the USA and make it look as though AWS is the only profitable business, especially from 2015 to 2017. THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work WHAT'S AMAZON'S MARKET SHARE? 35% OR 5%? Amazon won’t either. Still, if you disagree, and do think that Amazon will go much further towards taking over ‘everything’, then your definition of Amazon’s market share has to be its share of, well, ‘everything’. Today, that’s around 6%, not 35% or 50%. Amazon, Regulation, Ecommerce Benedict Evans 19 December 2019. 0Likes.
INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
AMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING There is an easy way to get this wrong if you’re not careful. If you only look at AWS and total operating profit, or aggregate the numbers that Amazon reports into AWS and ‘Other’, the resulting numbers will be misleading: the losses for RoW balance out the profit in the USA and make it look as though AWS is the only profitable business, especially from 2015 to 2017. THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work WHAT'S AMAZON'S MARKET SHARE? 35% OR 5%? Amazon won’t either. Still, if you disagree, and do think that Amazon will go much further towards taking over ‘everything’, then your definition of Amazon’s market share has to be its share of, well, ‘everything’. Today, that’s around 6%, not 35% or 50%. Amazon, Regulation, Ecommerce Benedict Evans 19 December 2019. 0Likes.
INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but WHAT COMES AFTER SMARTPHONES? What comes after smartphones? For as long as most people can remember, the tech industry has had a new centre roughly every fifteen years. A model of computing sets the agenda, and the company or companies that win that model dominate the industry, and everyone is scared of them, and then a new model comes along, forms a new centre, and the oldPAYING FOR NEWS
Paying for news. Newspaper revenue really started to collapse well over a decade ago, and we've been discussing what to do about it for almost as long. None of the issues have changed much: newspapers had an oligopoly of attention and an oligopoly of a certain kind of advertising reach, and the internet removed both of these.ABOUT / CONTACT
What matters in tech? What’s going on, and what will happen next? I’ve spent 20 years analysing mobile, media and technology, and worked in equity research, strategy, consulting and venture capital. RESETTING THE APP STORE Resetting the App Store. Apple launched the App Store in 2008, and tightened up the payment rules in 2011, and we’ve been arguing about it ever since. In many ways the issues haven’t really changed - it’s just that the numbers got a lot bigger. Almost everyone understands that some kind of locked-down, sandboxed software modelhas been a
AMAZON'S PRIVATE LABELS The largest share is in softlines, where private label was 2.5% of total sales in that category on Amazon (9% of first party sales, which are only 28% of total sales), and most of the rest are below 1%. This is clearly much less than the 15-35% seen at other large retailers. Amazon Benedict Evans 28 SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
LOCKDOWN TAKES ECOMMERCE TO 40% Lockdown takes ecommerce to 40%. The growth of ecommerce has always fit the old line about a frog in boiling water. Every year, the share of retail taken by ecommerce rose a little higher, and physical retailers got a little more uncomfortable (and recently have started failing), but the growth in any given year was never dramatic enoughto
THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work PRESENTATION: THE END OF THE BEGINNING Presentation: The End of the Beginning. I gave this presentation at a16z’s annual tech conference last week. YouTube. Close to three quarters of all the adults on earth now have a smartphone, and most of the rest will get one in the next few years. However, the use of thisconnectivity is
LISTS ARE THE NEW SEARCH All search grows until it requires curation. — Benedict Evans (@BenedictEvans) December 18, 2015. Hence, I always thought the most appealing part of Flipboard was the manually curated directory of sites to follow. It's a list of lists, but it isn't trying to encompass everything, and so, unlike Yahoo, it isn't unmanageably big. BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work BENEDICT EVANSNEWSLETTERESSAYSPRESENTATIONSCONTACTSOCIALAMAZON'S PROFITS, AWS AND ADVERTISING Once a week, I send a newsletter to 160,000 people - what happened in tech that actually mattered, and what it means. I pick out the changes and ideas you don’t want to miss in all the noise, and give them context and analysis. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.PRESENTATIONS
The Great Unbundling. Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘The Great Unbundling’. Covid brought shock and a lot of broken habits to tech, but mostly, it accelerates everything that was already changing. 20 trillion dollars of retail, brands, TV and advertising is BENEDICT'S NEWSLETTER The weekly Benedict Evans newsletter is a good way to catch up on all the relevant technology news with context, without the unnecessary throat clearing. journalist, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. Former Head of Microsoft Windows, Partner at Andreessen Horowitz.Steven Sinofsky.
STEP CHANGES IN ECOMMERCE Step changes in ecommerce. This might be quite an important chart. The lockdowns of the past 12 months led to a lot of forced adoption and forced experiment, and a lot of future growth was pulled forward into a couple of quarters in all sorts of sectors. But the UK had a much more rigorous lockdown than the USA, and it had a much larger ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes more money than the entire global digital music industry. Now, perhaps, it’s SHOPIFY — BENEDICT EVANS Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Shopify. Shopify’s 2020 results came out today, and much as expected, it reported that consumers spent a total of $120bn on its platform, almost exactly double the figure from 2019. Amazon’s rather different Marketplace business, which started back in 1999,probably had $275bn
SOLVING ONLINE EVENTS Solving online events. Online events remind me a lot of ecommerce in about 1996. The software is raw and rough around the edges, and often doesn’t work very well, though that can get fixed. But more importantly, no-one quite knows what they should be building. A conference, or an ‘event’, is a bundle. There is content from astage, with
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, INEVITABILITY IN TECHNOLOGY Napoleon Bonaparte. Technology has much of this issue. There are very strong deterministic forces that drive the industry forward - Moore's Law, network effects, economies of scale, migration of value up the stack and so on. But there's also a strong element of chance and luck. Great talent and execution and great ideas are part of the mix, but THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work ECOMMERCE — ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Ecommerce, Advertising, Regulation Benedict Evans 24 October 2020. The ecommerce surge. Both the UK and (today) the USA have given official statistics on how ecommerce and retail have changed during lockdown. The headline numbers are pretty dramatic. The UK went from 20% ecommerce penetration to over 30% in two months, and the USA from 17%to 22%.
OUTGROWING SOFTWARE
Benedict Evans. Newsletter Essays Presentations About / Contact. Outgrowing software. Source: Walmart. Ten years ago Marc Andreessen wrote an article in the WSJ called ‘ Software is eating the world ’, arguing that there was a fundamental shift in the role that software plays in the economy. In the past, IBM, Oracle or Microsoftsold
ESSAYS — BENEDICT EVANS Advertising, Apple Benedict Evans 25 May 2021. Can Apple change ads? 20 years ago Apple seized music, and turned it into a lever for its broader business. It failed to do the same to TV, and lost control of music, but won massively in games, where it now makes RESETTING THE APP STORE Resetting the App Store. Apple launched the App Store in 2008, and tightened up the payment rules in 2011, and we’ve been arguing about it ever since. In many ways the issues haven’t really changed - it’s just that the numbers got a lot bigger. Almost everyone understands that some kind of locked-down, sandboxed software modelhas been a
ARE YOU A SEAL?
Are you a seal? There is a theory that when a shark bites a surfer, this is because they look like a seal, especially from 50 feet underwater. The shark circles, comes close, and sometimes it takes a bite out of a leg, and sometimes it takes a bite out of the surfboard and gets a mouthful of fibreglass. Generally, it realises the mistakeand
WOULD BREAKING UP 'BIG TECH' WORK? WHAT Most of the things we worry about aren't actually competition problems, but even where they are, breakups are unlikely to be effective. The real answers are in much more detailed and micro work: in regulating the internal mechanics of these products, THE DEPLOYMENT PHASE OF MACHINE LEARNING The deployment phase of machine learning. In 2012 or so, if you’d asked most people in tech about ’neural networks’, if they had any answer at all they might well have said that it was an obscure idea from the 1980s that had never really worked - rather like VR. Then, in 2013, Imagenet gave us an explosive realisation that this could work IS CONTENT MODERATION A DEAD END? Is content moderation a dead end? In the late 1990s, Microsoft was the evil empire, and a big part of ‘evil’ was that it was too closed - it made things too hard for developers. But then came the great malware explosion, which at one point shut down half the Pentagon, and we realised that the real problem was that Windows and Office were DOES AMAZON MAKE MORE FROM ADS THAN AWS? At the top end, if we assume that $20bn of Amazon’s $21.5bn ‘Ads and other’ was actually ads, and it matched Google’s operating margin, that would be $13.6bn of operating income, the same as AWS. It could also be, say, $5bn lower - which would be in line with all of Amazon North America. Either way, it’s big, and growing,LTE AND DC-HSPA+
Of course, LTE is more efficient than DC-HSPA and over time LTE speeds (with new handsets) will improve substantially. But today, differences in coverage and congestion will create bigger differences. In other words, rather more iPhone 5 customers will have DC-HSPA than LTE, and they'll probably not notice the difference.Benedict Evans
Newsletter Essays PresentationsContact
Benedict Evans
Newsletter Essays PresentationsContact
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I’VE SPENT 20 YEARS ANALYSING MOBILE, DIGITAL MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY, AND WORKED IN INVESTMENT BANKING, INDUSTRY, CONSULTING AND VENTURE CAPITAL. I’M NOW AN INDEPENDENT ANALYST. I TRY TO WORK OUT WHAT'S GOING ON AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT.NEWSLETTER
I write a weekly newsletter around tech and media, picking the 10-20 pieces of news that actually mattered and explaining what they mean, with analysis and opinion to put things in context. Launched in 2013, it now has 140,000 subscribers, with a wide and senior audience in technology, media and finance. You’ll now get a confirmation email - make sure to click to completeyour subscription.
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ESSAYS
THE VR WINTER
VR is working on a small scale as a games platform, and in some industrial niches, but we still haven’t worked out any use cases with broader appeal, and it’s not clear how we would. If that doesn’t change, VR will only be a subset of games consoles, not the next universal platform and successor to smartphones that some people hope. That means we probably face another VR winter.MORE ESSAYS
PRESENTATIONS
Every year, I produce a big presentation digging into macro and strategic trends in the tech industry. This year, ‘Standing on the shoulders of giants’.MORE PRESENTATIONS
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I write a weekly newsletter around tech and media, picking the 10-20 pieces of news that actually mattered and explaining what they mean, with analysis and opinion to put things in context. Launched in 2013, it now has 140,000 subscribers, with a wide and senior audience in technology, media and finance.Email Address
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