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THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
ECRI INDUSTRIAL PRICE INDEX CONTINUES TO DROP ECRI Industrial Price Index Continues to Drop. Recent updates to the ECRI Industrial Price Index (IPI)* reveal that the weakness in global industrial growth being flagged by the latest international PMI data won’t let up anytime soon. In late November, we publicly shared an update to our private April call for a weakening global industrialRUSSIA ON THE RISE?
Russia on the Rise? Russia has been a prominent global political player in recent years, making waves with the annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, military intervention in Syria, and U.S. intelligence claims of election interference. While these political developments have garnered ample coverage, the country’s emergingeconomic
U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE: A PRIMER U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary NEW JAPANESE BUSINESS CYCLE DATES ECRI has determined a new business cycle trough date of January 2013 as well as a growth rate cycle trough of January 2013. Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.. Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions. WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
ECRI INDUSTRIAL PRICE INDEX CONTINUES TO DROP ECRI Industrial Price Index Continues to Drop. Recent updates to the ECRI Industrial Price Index (IPI)* reveal that the weakness in global industrial growth being flagged by the latest international PMI data won’t let up anytime soon. In late November, we publicly shared an update to our private April call for a weakening global industrialRUSSIA ON THE RISE?
Russia on the Rise? Russia has been a prominent global political player in recent years, making waves with the annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, military intervention in Syria, and U.S. intelligence claims of election interference. While these political developments have garnered ample coverage, the country’s emergingeconomic
U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE: A PRIMER U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary NEW JAPANESE BUSINESS CYCLE DATES ECRI has determined a new business cycle trough date of January 2013 as well as a growth rate cycle trough of January 2013. Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.. Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle CHINESE CYCLICAL OUTLOOK Keywords: China inflation, economic growth, prompt leading index, export, home price, demographics, PBOC. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. For information on our professional services please contact us. Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.ABOUT ECRI | ECRI
The Leading Predictor of Cyclical Turning Points. ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan: we are not linked, funded, or in any way beholden to a cause other than serving our clients with accurate and reliable intelligence for managing cycle risk.ECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.THE ECRI APPROACH
A century-long tradition of business cycle research gives ECRI a singular perspective on the ebb and flow of the economy, even in the face of unexpected shocks. Our approach builds on the work of ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. Our track record reflects the major strides we have UPDATED GROWTH AND INFLATION OUTLOOKS We have been on the lookout for several important pivot points this year. The timing of these cyclical transitions is coming more into focus, according to our highly targeted leading indexes of growth andinflation.
GLOSSARY | ECRI
The ECRI Industrial Price Index (IPI) was created in 1985 by Geoffrey H. Moore, ECRI's co-founder, and was previously known as the JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index. The IPI is based on the prices of 18 industrial commodities and is compiled daily by ECRI. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS Cyclical risk rises and falls over the course of the business cycle. Through our work, our clients watch these directional shifts develop, and are able to better time critical decisions – including asset allocation, business management and, in some cases, government policy. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE NAVIGATES INFLATION DIVIDE Future Inflation Gauge Navigates Inflation Divide. Lacking the tools to predict inflation, the Fed’s new framework makes a virtue of necessity. In contrast, the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge cuts through the noise to show where inflation is heading in the coming months. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
RUSSIA ON THE RISE?
Russia on the Rise? Russia has been a prominent global political player in recent years, making waves with the annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, military intervention in Syria, and U.S. intelligence claims of election interference. While these political developments have garnered ample coverage, the country’s emergingeconomic
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record.SERVICES | ECRI
ECRI professional services deliver a clear view of the path ahead. Forewarned of upcoming turning points in economic and inflation cycles, our members have the FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.ALL INDEXES
All Indexes. Over decades, ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries, including multi-country groupings. Most ECRI data are updated on a regular monthly basis, reflecting the freshest possible data. A list of ECRI’s proprietary indexes is available upon request. WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.ECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.REPORTS AND INDEXES
Reports & Indexes. We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100proprietary
TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record.SERVICES | ECRI
ECRI professional services deliver a clear view of the path ahead. Forewarned of upcoming turning points in economic and inflation cycles, our members have the FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.ALL INDEXES
All Indexes. Over decades, ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries, including multi-country groupings. Most ECRI data are updated on a regular monthly basis, reflecting the freshest possible data. A list of ECRI’s proprietary indexes is available upon request. WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.ECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.REPORTS AND INDEXES
Reports & Indexes. We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100proprietary
TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions. INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE DATES ECRI has long determined international recession start and end dates (now covering 21 countries) using the same approach used to establish official recession dates for the U.S., which were decided by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore on the NBER’s behalf for threeECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.ABOUT ECRI | ECRI
The Leading Predictor of Cyclical Turning Points. ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan: we are not linked, funded, or in any way beholden to a cause other than serving our clients with accurate and reliable intelligence for managing cycle risk. Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental UPDATED GROWTH AND INFLATION OUTLOOKS We have been on the lookout for several important pivot points this year. The timing of these cyclical transitions is coming more into focus, according to our highly targeted leading indexes of growth andinflation.
ALL REPORTS
Members recently received the following reports, including in-depth analysis for 20 economies accounting for 80% of world GDP – including major sectors – all of the information needed to accurately decipher the complex cyclical dynamics of the globaleconomy.
THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE NAVIGATES INFLATION DIVIDE Future Inflation Gauge Navigates Inflation Divide. Lacking the tools to predict inflation, the Fed’s new framework makes a virtue of necessity. In contrast, the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge cuts through the noise to show where inflation is heading in the coming months. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE: A PRIMER U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary CONSENSUS PLAYS CATCH UP TO OUR GLOBAL GROWTH CALL Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call. A full year ago – when the IMF slashed its global growth forecasts – ECRI forecast “a cyclical upturn in global growth” ( International Cyclical Outlook, October 2016 ). This was based on concerted upswings in thegrowth rates of
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record.SERVICES | ECRI
ECRI professional services deliver a clear view of the path ahead. Forewarned of upcoming turning points in economic and inflation cycles, our members have the FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.ALL INDEXES
All Indexes. Over decades, ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries, including multi-country groupings. Most ECRI data are updated on a regular monthly basis, reflecting the freshest possible data. A list of ECRI’s proprietary indexes is available upon request. WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.ECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.REPORTS AND INDEXES
Reports & Indexes. We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100proprietary
TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record.SERVICES | ECRI
ECRI professional services deliver a clear view of the path ahead. Forewarned of upcoming turning points in economic and inflation cycles, our members have the FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.ALL INDEXES
All Indexes. Over decades, ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries, including multi-country groupings. Most ECRI data are updated on a regular monthly basis, reflecting the freshest possible data. A list of ECRI’s proprietary indexes is available upon request. WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.ECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.REPORTS AND INDEXES
Reports & Indexes. We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100proprietary
TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions. INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE DATES ECRI has long determined international recession start and end dates (now covering 21 countries) using the same approach used to establish official recession dates for the U.S., which were decided by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore on the NBER’s behalf for threeECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.ABOUT ECRI | ECRI
The Leading Predictor of Cyclical Turning Points. ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan: we are not linked, funded, or in any way beholden to a cause other than serving our clients with accurate and reliable intelligence for managing cycle risk. Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental UPDATED GROWTH AND INFLATION OUTLOOKS We have been on the lookout for several important pivot points this year. The timing of these cyclical transitions is coming more into focus, according to our highly targeted leading indexes of growth andinflation.
ALL REPORTS
Members recently received the following reports, including in-depth analysis for 20 economies accounting for 80% of world GDP – including major sectors – all of the information needed to accurately decipher the complex cyclical dynamics of the globaleconomy.
THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE NAVIGATES INFLATION DIVIDE Future Inflation Gauge Navigates Inflation Divide. Lacking the tools to predict inflation, the Fed’s new framework makes a virtue of necessity. In contrast, the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge cuts through the noise to show where inflation is heading in the coming months. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE: A PRIMER U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary CONSENSUS PLAYS CATCH UP TO OUR GLOBAL GROWTH CALL Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call. A full year ago – when the IMF slashed its global growth forecasts – ECRI forecast “a cyclical upturn in global growth” ( International Cyclical Outlook, October 2016 ). This was based on concerted upswings in thegrowth rates of
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record.SERVICES | ECRI
ECRI professional services deliver a clear view of the path ahead. Forewarned of upcoming turning points in economic and inflation cycles, our members have the FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.ALL INDEXES
All Indexes. Over decades, ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries, including multi-country groupings. Most ECRI data are updated on a regular monthly basis, reflecting the freshest possible data. A list of ECRI’s proprietary indexes is available upon request. WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.ECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.REPORTS AND INDEXES
Reports & Indexes. We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100proprietary
TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record.SERVICES | ECRI
ECRI professional services deliver a clear view of the path ahead. Forewarned of upcoming turning points in economic and inflation cycles, our members have the FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.ALL INDEXES
All Indexes. Over decades, ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries, including multi-country groupings. Most ECRI data are updated on a regular monthly basis, reflecting the freshest possible data. A list of ECRI’s proprietary indexes is available upon request. WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.ECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.REPORTS AND INDEXES
Reports & Indexes. We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100proprietary
TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions. INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE DATES ECRI has long determined international recession start and end dates (now covering 21 countries) using the same approach used to establish official recession dates for the U.S., which were decided by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore on the NBER’s behalf for threeECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.ABOUT ECRI | ECRI
The Leading Predictor of Cyclical Turning Points. ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan: we are not linked, funded, or in any way beholden to a cause other than serving our clients with accurate and reliable intelligence for managing cycle risk. Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental UPDATED GROWTH AND INFLATION OUTLOOKS We have been on the lookout for several important pivot points this year. The timing of these cyclical transitions is coming more into focus, according to our highly targeted leading indexes of growth andinflation.
ALL REPORTS
Members recently received the following reports, including in-depth analysis for 20 economies accounting for 80% of world GDP – including major sectors – all of the information needed to accurately decipher the complex cyclical dynamics of the globaleconomy.
THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE NAVIGATES INFLATION DIVIDE Future Inflation Gauge Navigates Inflation Divide. Lacking the tools to predict inflation, the Fed’s new framework makes a virtue of necessity. In contrast, the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge cuts through the noise to show where inflation is heading in the coming months. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE: A PRIMER U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary CONSENSUS PLAYS CATCH UP TO OUR GLOBAL GROWTH CALL Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call. A full year ago – when the IMF slashed its global growth forecasts – ECRI forecast “a cyclical upturn in global growth” ( International Cyclical Outlook, October 2016 ). This was based on concerted upswings in thegrowth rates of
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record.SERVICES | ECRI
ECRI professional services deliver a clear view of the path ahead. Forewarned of upcoming turning points in economic and inflation cycles, our members have the FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.ALL INDEXES
All Indexes. Over decades, ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries, including multi-country groupings. Most ECRI data are updated on a regular monthly basis, reflecting the freshest possible data. A list of ECRI’s proprietary indexes is available upon request. WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.ECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.REPORTS AND INDEXES
Reports & Indexes. We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100proprietary
TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record.SERVICES | ECRI
ECRI professional services deliver a clear view of the path ahead. Forewarned of upcoming turning points in economic and inflation cycles, our members have the FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.ALL INDEXES
All Indexes. Over decades, ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries, including multi-country groupings. Most ECRI data are updated on a regular monthly basis, reflecting the freshest possible data. A list of ECRI’s proprietary indexes is available upon request. WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.ECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.REPORTS AND INDEXES
Reports & Indexes. We help our clients manage their exposure to cycle risk. ECRI has been studying economic cycles – and forecasting recessions and recoveries – longer and more reliably than anyone, anywhere. We do this by making sense of the often-confusing big picture through unique cyclical insights based on more than 100proprietary
TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions. INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE DATES ECRI has long determined international recession start and end dates (now covering 21 countries) using the same approach used to establish official recession dates for the U.S., which were decided by ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore on the NBER’s behalf for threeECRI HISTORY
ECRI History. 1920-1949 A Groundbreaking Foundation. The business cycle and leading indicators are first defined. 1950-1990 Advancing the Methodology. New leading indexes are developed, significantly broadening the approach. 1990-Present The State of the Art.ABOUT ECRI | ECRI
The Leading Predictor of Cyclical Turning Points. ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan: we are not linked, funded, or in any way beholden to a cause other than serving our clients with accurate and reliable intelligence for managing cycle risk. Our century-long tradition of business cycle research is informed by the fundamental UPDATED GROWTH AND INFLATION OUTLOOKS We have been on the lookout for several important pivot points this year. The timing of these cyclical transitions is coming more into focus, according to our highly targeted leading indexes of growth andinflation.
ALL REPORTS
Members recently received the following reports, including in-depth analysis for 20 economies accounting for 80% of world GDP – including major sectors – all of the information needed to accurately decipher the complex cyclical dynamics of the globaleconomy.
THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE NAVIGATES INFLATION DIVIDE Future Inflation Gauge Navigates Inflation Divide. Lacking the tools to predict inflation, the Fed’s new framework makes a virtue of necessity. In contrast, the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge cuts through the noise to show where inflation is heading in the coming months. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE: A PRIMER U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary CONSENSUS PLAYS CATCH UP TO OUR GLOBAL GROWTH CALL Consensus Plays Catch Up to Our Global Growth Call. A full year ago – when the IMF slashed its global growth forecasts – ECRI forecast “a cyclical upturn in global growth” ( International Cyclical Outlook, October 2016 ). This was based on concerted upswings in thegrowth rates of
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years. WHO WE ARE | ABOUT ECRI | ECRI Anirvan Banerji Co-Founder. Anirvan Banerji is the co-founder of ECRI. Additionally, he is the editor-in-chief of the forecasting publications that ECRI produces each week and is the co-author of Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy ».. Banerji has worked closely with Geoffrey H. Moore since 1986 at Columbia University's Center for ECRI INDUSTRIAL PRICE INDEX CONTINUES TO DROP ECRI Industrial Price Index Continues to Drop. Recent updates to the ECRI Industrial Price Index (IPI)* reveal that the weakness in global industrial growth being flagged by the latest international PMI data won’t let up anytime soon. In late November, we publicly shared an update to our private April call for a weakening global industrialRUSSIA ON THE RISE?
Russia on the Rise? Russia has been a prominent global political player in recent years, making waves with the annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, military intervention in Syria, and U.S. intelligence claims of election interference. While these political developments have garnered ample coverage, the country’s emergingeconomic
U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE: A PRIMER U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years. WHO WE ARE | ABOUT ECRI | ECRI Anirvan Banerji Co-Founder. Anirvan Banerji is the co-founder of ECRI. Additionally, he is the editor-in-chief of the forecasting publications that ECRI produces each week and is the co-author of Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy ».. Banerji has worked closely with Geoffrey H. Moore since 1986 at Columbia University's Center for ECRI INDUSTRIAL PRICE INDEX CONTINUES TO DROP ECRI Industrial Price Index Continues to Drop. Recent updates to the ECRI Industrial Price Index (IPI)* reveal that the weakness in global industrial growth being flagged by the latest international PMI data won’t let up anytime soon. In late November, we publicly shared an update to our private April call for a weakening global industrialRUSSIA ON THE RISE?
Russia on the Rise? Russia has been a prominent global political player in recent years, making waves with the annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, military intervention in Syria, and U.S. intelligence claims of election interference. While these political developments have garnered ample coverage, the country’s emergingeconomic
U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE: A PRIMER U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationaryABOUT ECRI | ECRI
The Leading Predictor of Cyclical Turning Points. ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan: we are not linked, funded, or in any way beholden to a cause other than serving our clients with accurate and reliable intelligence for managing cycle risk.THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
UPDATED GROWTH AND INFLATION OUTLOOKS We have been on the lookout for several important pivot points this year. The timing of these cyclical transitions is coming more into focus, according to our highly targeted leading indexes of growth andinflation.
GLOSSARY | ECRI
The ECRI Industrial Price Index (IPI) was created in 1985 by Geoffrey H. Moore, ECRI's co-founder, and was previously known as the JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index. The IPI is based on the prices of 18 industrial commodities and is compiled daily by ECRI. INTERNATIONAL INFLATION OUTLOOK International Inflation Outlook. New developments on the international inflation cycle front warrant attention, amid the global recovery from the recession. Our international leading indexes and future inflation gauges help sift through global cyclical crosscurrents. Review ECRI'scurrent real
RUSSIA ON THE RISE?
Russia on the Rise? Russia has been a prominent global political player in recent years, making waves with the annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, military intervention in Syria, and U.S. intelligence claims of election interference. While these political developments have garnered ample coverage, the country’s emergingeconomic
BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE After ECRI predicted the 2001 recession, there was popular demand for a better understanding of our approach. This led to the publication of Beating the Business Cycle, written by ECRI co-founders Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji.. Written in a straightforward, accessible style, the book reveals just how advanced the state of the art in cyclical forecasting has become. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE NAVIGATES INFLATION DIVIDE Future Inflation Gauge Navigates Inflation Divide. Lacking the tools to predict inflation, the Fed’s new framework makes a virtue of necessity. In contrast, the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge cuts through the noise to show where inflation is heading in the coming months. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. NEW JAPANESE BUSINESS CYCLE DATES ECRI has determined a new business cycle trough date of January 2013 as well as a growth rate cycle trough of January 2013. Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.. Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle BRAZIL'S STAGFLATION SCENARIO Brazil's Stagflation Scenario. The rollercoaster ride for Brazilian inflation may not be over yet. From its January 2014 low, year-over-year (yoy) CPI growth climbed to 10.7% in January 2016, only to plunge 8.3 percentage points by August 2017 (chart). Spurred by this sharp disinflation, the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) cut itstarget rate six
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years. WHO WE ARE | ABOUT ECRI | ECRI Anirvan Banerji Co-Founder. Anirvan Banerji is the co-founder of ECRI. Additionally, he is the editor-in-chief of the forecasting publications that ECRI produces each week and is the co-author of Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy ».. Banerji has worked closely with Geoffrey H. Moore since 1986 at Columbia University's Center for ECRI INDUSTRIAL PRICE INDEX CONTINUES TO DROPECRI LEADING INDEXECRI WEEKLY INDEXECRI INDEX BUSINESS CYCLEECRI DATAECRI ECONOMYECRI REPORTS ECRI Industrial Price Index Continues to Drop. Recent updates to the ECRI Industrial Price Index (IPI)* reveal that the weakness in global industrial growth being flagged by the latest international PMI data won’t let up anytime soon. In late November, we publicly shared an update to our private April call for a weakening global industrialRUSSIA ON THE RISE?
Russia on the Rise? Russia has been a prominent global political player in recent years, making waves with the annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, military intervention in Syria, and U.S. intelligence claims of election interference. While these political developments have garnered ample coverage, the country’s emergingeconomic
U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE: A PRIMER U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions.THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years. WHO WE ARE | ABOUT ECRI | ECRI Anirvan Banerji Co-Founder. Anirvan Banerji is the co-founder of ECRI. Additionally, he is the editor-in-chief of the forecasting publications that ECRI produces each week and is the co-author of Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy ».. Banerji has worked closely with Geoffrey H. Moore since 1986 at Columbia University's Center for ECRI INDUSTRIAL PRICE INDEX CONTINUES TO DROPECRI LEADING INDEXECRI WEEKLY INDEXECRI INDEX BUSINESS CYCLEECRI DATAECRI ECONOMYECRI REPORTS ECRI Industrial Price Index Continues to Drop. Recent updates to the ECRI Industrial Price Index (IPI)* reveal that the weakness in global industrial growth being flagged by the latest international PMI data won’t let up anytime soon. In late November, we publicly shared an update to our private April call for a weakening global industrialRUSSIA ON THE RISE?
Russia on the Rise? Russia has been a prominent global political player in recent years, making waves with the annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, military intervention in Syria, and U.S. intelligence claims of election interference. While these political developments have garnered ample coverage, the country’s emergingeconomic
U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE: A PRIMER U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationaryABOUT ECRI | ECRI
The Leading Predictor of Cyclical Turning Points. ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan: we are not linked, funded, or in any way beholden to a cause other than serving our clients with accurate and reliable intelligence for managing cycle risk.THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
UPDATED GROWTH AND INFLATION OUTLOOKS We have been on the lookout for several important pivot points this year. The timing of these cyclical transitions is coming more into focus, according to our highly targeted leading indexes of growth andinflation.
KOREAN CYCLICAL OUTLOOK Korean Cyclical Outlook. Korea’s recovery from the Covid-crisis is evolving, both cyclically and structurally. Included in this report: - Korea’s cyclical outlook featuring our Korean Leading Manufacturing Index. - Analysis of Korean export growth prospects. - Structural shifts in Korea’s manufacturing sector. INTERNATIONAL INFLATION OUTLOOK International Inflation Outlook. New developments on the international inflation cycle front warrant attention, amid the global recovery from the recession. Our international leading indexes and future inflation gauges help sift through global cyclical crosscurrents. Review ECRI'scurrent real
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ECRI forecasts originate from our objective leading indexes of the business cycle. That’s because they have solid foundations, informed by the fundamental drivers of economic cycles, and have proven their worth over more than a century of economic cycles in the U.S. and in FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE NAVIGATES INFLATION DIVIDE Future Inflation Gauge Navigates Inflation Divide. Lacking the tools to predict inflation, the Fed’s new framework makes a virtue of necessity. In contrast, the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge cuts through the noise to show where inflation is heading in the coming months. Review ECRI's current real-time track record.RUSSIA ON THE RISE?
Russia on the Rise? Russia has been a prominent global political player in recent years, making waves with the annexation of Crimea and the resulting sanctions, military intervention in Syria, and U.S. intelligence claims of election interference. While these political developments have garnered ample coverage, the country’s emergingeconomic
NEW JAPANESE BUSINESS CYCLE DATES ECRI has determined a new business cycle trough date of January 2013 as well as a growth rate cycle trough of January 2013. Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.. Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle BRAZIL'S STAGFLATION SCENARIO Brazil's Stagflation Scenario. The rollercoaster ride for Brazilian inflation may not be over yet. From its January 2014 low, year-over-year (yoy) CPI growth climbed to 10.7% in January 2016, only to plunge 8.3 percentage points by August 2017 (chart). Spurred by this sharp disinflation, the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) cut itstarget rate six
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions. ABOUT ECRI | ECRISEE MORE ON BUSINESSCYCLE.COM WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
ALL INDEXES
All Indexes. Over decades, ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries, including multi-country groupings. Most ECRI data are updated on a regular monthly basis, reflecting the freshest possible data. A list of ECRI’s proprietary indexes is available upon request. TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
WHO WE ARE | ABOUT ECRI | ECRI Anirvan Banerji Co-Founder. Anirvan Banerji is the co-founder of ECRI. Additionally, he is the editor-in-chief of the forecasting publications that ECRI produces each week and is the co-author of Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy ».. Banerji has worked closely with Geoffrey H. Moore since 1986 at Columbia University's Center for ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More. Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018. Upcoming Client Reports. May 26, 2021 International Essentials. May 28, 2021 ECRI Weekly Update. Jun 02, 2021 U.S. Focus. Jun 09, 2021 International Focus. CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 Chinese Growth Prospects In 2021. The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This report updates our full suite of Chinese leading indexes, offering fresh insights. Review ECRI's current real-time track record. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning point calls. We also work directly with them to customize the integration of cycle risk management into their existing processes. Top Questions. ABOUT ECRI | ECRISEE MORE ON BUSINESSCYCLE.COM WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? What Do Shorter Economic Cycles Mean? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over 25-years.THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
ALL INDEXES
All Indexes. Over decades, ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 22 countries, including multi-country groupings. Most ECRI data are updated on a regular monthly basis, reflecting the freshest possible data. A list of ECRI’s proprietary indexes is available upon request. TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS It is an approach pioneered by ECRI's co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, and his mentors, Wesley C. Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developedthe
DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Bond markets were also caught flat-footed, with the 10-year treasury yield around 3¼% in October, and again in November, as inflation expectations remained high through last fall. This is the elephant in the room crushing bond yields. It’s really about the inflation cycle. Highlight: @businesscycle ’s Lakshman Achuthan on theeconomy: “I
WHO WE ARE | ABOUT ECRI | ECRI Anirvan Banerji Co-Founder. Anirvan Banerji is the co-founder of ECRI. Additionally, he is the editor-in-chief of the forecasting publications that ECRI produces each week and is the co-author of Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy ».. Banerji has worked closely with Geoffrey H. Moore since 1986 at Columbia University's Center forABOUT ECRI | ECRI
The Leading Predictor of Cyclical Turning Points. ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan: we are not linked, funded, or in any way beholden to a cause other than serving our clients with accurate and reliable intelligence for managing cycle risk.THE ECRI APPROACH
ECRI's forecasting framework is the state of the art. Our indicator systems are designed to predict the timing of future changes in the economy's direction. They signal those turns before the fact, and well before the consensus. ECRI's focus is on identifying when thosechanges in
ALL REPORTS
Members recently received the following reports, including in-depth analysis for 20 economies accounting for 80% of world GDP – including major sectors – all of the information needed to accurately decipher the complex cyclical dynamics of the globaleconomy.
ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Economic Cycle Research Institute | ECRI Mobile. New York +1 212 557 7788 • London +44 207 060 1223. pro@businesscycle.com. ECRI is the world's leading authority on business cycles. Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points. Learn more about ECRI ». APR 5, 2021. CNN. Biden Boom FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS We do not use models to make our cycle forecasts. Rather, we employ a robust leading indicator approach which is unrivaled in accurately calling turning points in economic growth and inflation worldwide. This is very different from mainstream economists, who base their forecasts on econometric models. Top Questions. Background &Methodology.
CONTACT ECRI
Contact Us. pro@businesscycle.com. New York: +1 (212) 557-7788 London:+44 (207) 060-1223.
MONITORING BUSINESS CYCLES TODAY A Framework That Provides Clarity. During periods of so-called “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be evidence of a countertrend. U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE AT 70-MONTH HIGH ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) rose again in June. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle. "With the USFIG trending up and hitting a 70-month high in June, underlying inflation pressures have risen further."News. Events.
ECRI INDUSTRIAL PRICE INDEX CONTINUES TO DROP ECRI Industrial Price Index Continues to Drop. Recent updates to the ECRI Industrial Price Index (IPI)* reveal that the weakness in global industrial growth being flagged by the latest international PMI data won’t let up anytime soon. In late November, we publicly shared an update to our private April call for a weakening global industrial NEW JAPANESE BUSINESS CYCLE DATES ECRI has determined a new business cycle trough date of January 2013 as well as a growth rate cycle trough of January 2013. Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.. Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE ECRI is the leading authority on business cycles. Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycleturning points.
CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This reportupdates our
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning pointcalls.
WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over25-years.
REPORTS AND INDEXES
To help the public monitor recessions and recoveries ECRI publicly releases the U.S. Weekly Leading Index and U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, which form the basisTHE ECRI APPROACH
The Forecasting Challenge. Many believe that recessions are hard to predict, and for good reason. As an IMF study of economist forecasts from 63 countries concluded, their “record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.”ALL INDEXES
ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 20 countries, including multi-country groupings. As a public service, ECRI provides limited free data on the indexes shown here. WHO WE ARE | ABOUT ECRI | ECRI Anirvan Banerji Co-Founder. Anirvan Banerji is the co-founder of ECRI. Additionally, he is the editor-in-chief of the forecasting publications that ECRI produces each week and is the co-author of Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy ».. Banerji has worked closely with Geoffrey H. Moore since 1986 at Columbia University's Center for TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles. DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM The Fed and the bond market have both been way behind the curve in anticipating the inflation cycle downturn. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge was far more prescient. ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE ECRI is the leading authority on business cycles. Our state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycleturning points.
CHINESE GROWTH PROSPECTS IN 2021 The pandemic has turbocharged structural shifts around the world, but not all aspects of China’s recovery are created equal. This reportupdates our
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS The components of ECRI's composite indexes are proprietary, but through our reports and private meetings our clients are fully apprised of the “story” behind all of our cycle turning pointcalls.
WHAT DO SHORTER ECONOMIC CYCLES MEAN? Since the turn of the century, the duration of cyclical swings in economic growth has shortened dramatically. For instance, the U.S. experienced six growth rate cycles in the 14-year period from 1998 through 2012, while the previous six growth rate cycles stretched over25-years.
REPORTS AND INDEXES
To help the public monitor recessions and recoveries ECRI publicly releases the U.S. Weekly Leading Index and U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, which form the basisTHE ECRI APPROACH
The Forecasting Challenge. Many believe that recessions are hard to predict, and for good reason. As an IMF study of economist forecasts from 63 countries concluded, their “record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.”ALL INDEXES
ECRI has developed more than 100 proprietary indexes covering 20 countries, including multi-country groupings. As a public service, ECRI provides limited free data on the indexes shown here. WHO WE ARE | ABOUT ECRI | ECRI Anirvan Banerji Co-Founder. Anirvan Banerji is the co-founder of ECRI. Additionally, he is the editor-in-chief of the forecasting publications that ECRI produces each week and is the co-author of Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy ».. Banerji has worked closely with Geoffrey H. Moore since 1986 at Columbia University's Center for TURNING POINTS AND LEAD INDICATORS ECRI has had a very stellar record. They've been making pretty bold calls and going against the conventional wisdom. So far their record has been one of the most impressive, and has been written up in the press as well as talked about in policy circles. DISINFLATION: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM The Fed and the bond market have both been way behind the curve in anticipating the inflation cycle downturn. ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge was far more prescient.ABOUT ECRI | ECRI
The Leading Predictor of Cyclical Turning Points. ECRI is independent, objective and non-partisan: we are not linked, funded, or in any way beholden to a cause other than serving our clients with accurate and reliable intelligence for managing cycle risk.THE ECRI APPROACH
The Forecasting Challenge. Many believe that recessions are hard to predict, and for good reason. As an IMF study of economist forecasts from 63 countries concluded, their “record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.”ALL REPORTS
Members recently received the following reports, including in-depth analysis for 20 economies accounting for 80% of world GDP – including major sectors – all of the information needed to accurately decipher the complex cyclical dynamics of the globaleconomy.
WEEKLY LEADING INDEX SLIPS ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 158.2. The growth rate decreased to below 22%. ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here. The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points ineconomic growth.
MONITORING BUSINESS CYCLES TODAY A Framework That Provides Clarity. During periods of so-called “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be evidence of a countertrend. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS We do not use models to make our cycle forecasts. Rather, we employ a robust leading indicator approach which is unrivaled in accurately calling turning points in economic growth and inflation worldwide. This is very different from mainstream economists, who ECRI INDUSTRIAL PRICE INDEX CONTINUES TO DROP ECRI’s industrial price index is a critical tool for monitoring the risk of cycle turns in commodity price inflation. U.S. FUTURE INFLATION GAUGE AT 70-MONTH HIGH ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) rose again in June. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures FLASHBACK: DECLINING PRODUCTIVITY IN CONSTRUCTION In the two key sectors of the economy where President Trump has promised to create “good jobs” – manufacturing and construction – productivity has actually been falling. NEW JAPANESE BUSINESS CYCLE DATES ECRI has determined a new business cycle trough date of January 2013 as well as a growth rate cycle trough of January 2013. Click here for the complete international business and growth rate cycle chronologies.. Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycleContact
ECRI - Economic Cycle Research InstituteView Chart
* November 13, 2020
* Macro Voices
PODCAST: ECONOMIC CYCLES, INFLATION AND RECOVERY UPDATE ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan shares updated cycle research insights, highlighting the inflation cycle and the shape of the recovery.Read More
ECRI IS THE WORLD'S LEADING AUTHORITY ON BUSINESS CYCLES. Providing customized cycle risk management services.Our Services
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Posted November 25, 2020ECRI Weekly Update
Posted November 20, 2020ECRI Weekly Update
Posted November 19, 2020 COVID-19 SURGE, WHAT'S NEXT? Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Nov 19, 2020 Posted November 13, 2020ECRI Weekly Update
Posted November 11, 2020 WILL THE CONSUMER KEEP SPENDING? Full Report: U.S. Focus: Nov 11, 2020View More Reports
FEATURED PAST REPORT SUMMARY: Posted January 31, 2018 THE BEST WAY TO USE THE WEEKLY LEADING INDEX (WLI) The WLI is part of sequence of leading indexes that together flag cyclical turns in economic growth. More Full Report: U.S. Essentials: Jan 19, 2018 UPCOMING CLIENT REPORTS * Nov 30, 2020 International Essentials * Dec 02, 2020 U.S. Focus * Dec 04, 2020 ECRI Weekly Update * Dec 09, 2020 International Focus * Dec 18, 2020 U.S. Essentials Learn more about ECRI reports and download sample excerptsNEWS
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WEEKLY LEADING INDEX ADVANCES ECRI November 25, 2020 ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to 9.6%.More
WEEKLY LEADING INDEX RISES ECRI November 20, 2020 ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate increases to 8.6%More
PODCAST: ECONOMIC CYCLES, INFLATION AND RECOVERY UPDATE Macro Voices November 13, 2020 ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan shares updated cycle research insights, highlighting the inflation cycle and the shape of the recovery.More
WEEKLY LEADING INDEX INCREASES ECRI November 13, 2020 ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth highest since early 2018.More
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FEATURED ECRI COMPOSITE INDEXESWLIW
U.S. Weekly Leading Index (weekly)0.4
Jan '20Jul '20108126144PUBLIC UPDATE:
Nov 25
10:30am
MEMBER UPDATE:
Nov 25
9:00am
XLS
USFIGM
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (monthly)12.1
PUBLIC UPDATE:
Nov 06
9:40am
MEMBER UPDATE:
Nov 06
9:00am
USLHPI
U.S. Leading Home Price Index1.9
Leads cyclical turns in U.S. real home prices. Historical data beginsin 1953.
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INTERNATIONAL GROWTH RATE AND BUSINESS CYCLECHRONOLOGIES
* Growth Rate Cycle Chronologies October 2, 2020 * Business Cycle Chronologies August 14, 2020 More About Cycle DatesClose
ECRI’S WEEKLY LEADING INDEX (WLI) IS PART OF A SEQUENCE OF LEADING INDEXES DESIGNED TO FLAG CYCLICAL TURNS IN U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH. DOWNLOAD THE WLI DATA AFTER PROVIDING YOUR BUSINESS CONTACTINFORMATION.
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