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NEGATIVE REAL YIELDS AND HIGHER INFLATION FORECASTS While the Treasury market has increasingly embraced a reflationary narrative, inflation-indexed government bonds have plumbed ever deeper levels of negative real yields. THE FED'S "BASE-EFFECT" INFLATION ARGUMENT IS NONSENSE The 1.83% reading for twelve months ending March 2021 essentially matches the average inflation rate of the two prior years. And that 12 month period includes the three months (April to June) when the economy was closed, and GDP plunged a record 31% annualized. ECONMATTERS: NATURAL GAS MARKET ANALYSIS Welcome To EconMatters, home to the In depth analysis of global economic, stock, energy and commodity market events GAMESTOP AND PEER-TO-PEER POWER GameStop and Peer-to-peer Power. During Great Britain's golden age of gambling, a Scot named William Cunninghame Graham—losing at cards, out of money, but not yet ready to quit for the evening—secured a loan of 1,000 pounds from a Colonel Archibald Campbell. Graham pledged as security the use of his estate to Campbell for the rest of ECONMATTERS: MAP SHOWS DEVASTATING CROP LOSSES ARE Heatmap From The April "Eye-Popping" CPI Report. As BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the "eye-popping" April CPI report was a "massive surprise" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of WHY M1 MONEY SUPPLY IS SKYROCKETING LIKE NO TIME IN This could be due to Biden’s promised termination of tax welfare to the rich. The first answer is my own surmising based on an article I just read about major tax-planning moves that are happening now in anticipation of Joe Biden’s promise finally to curtail the massive welfare to the rich that has gone on since the Reagan era (as the core of Reaganomics) in the form of that special tax ECONMATTERS: CONSUMER GOODS PRICES INCREASE BY MOST IN The bizarre phenomenon of companies complaining about “labor shortages” amid dropping job applicants, while 9.8 million are “unemployed,” and 16.2 million people claim unemployment benefits. Employers of all types – companies, governments, and nonprofits – reported that they added only 266,000 workers to their payrolls inApril
CHINESE BOMBERS CARRIED OUT "SIMULATED ATTACK" ON USS FT cites unnamed intelligence sources to report that "Chinese military aircraft simulated missile attacks on a nearby US aircraft carrier during an incursion into Taiwan’s air defense zone three days after Joe Biden’s inauguration, according to intelligence from the US and its allies." We earlier noted that on Sunday Taiwan reported a huge ECONMATTERSTAIWANCURRENCYOIL MARKETECONOMY The American Society of Civil Engineers 2021 infrastructure report card gives the United States an overall grade of C minus. Everyone in Washington, yes, everyone, believes some sort of major investment needs to be made in our transportation, water, and sewer systems which have been sorely neglected. May. ECONMATTERS: HEATMAP FROM THE APRIL "EYE-POPPING" CPI REPORT Heatmap From The April "Eye-Popping" CPI Report. As BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the "eye-popping" April CPI report was a "massive surprise" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of 0.3%. However, in some potentially mitigatingdetails, BofA
NEGATIVE REAL YIELDS AND HIGHER INFLATION FORECASTS While the Treasury market has increasingly embraced a reflationary narrative, inflation-indexed government bonds have plumbed ever deeper levels of negative real yields. THE FED'S "BASE-EFFECT" INFLATION ARGUMENT IS NONSENSE The 1.83% reading for twelve months ending March 2021 essentially matches the average inflation rate of the two prior years. And that 12 month period includes the three months (April to June) when the economy was closed, and GDP plunged a record 31% annualized. ECONMATTERS: NATURAL GAS MARKET ANALYSIS Welcome To EconMatters, home to the In depth analysis of global economic, stock, energy and commodity market events GAMESTOP AND PEER-TO-PEER POWER GameStop and Peer-to-peer Power. During Great Britain's golden age of gambling, a Scot named William Cunninghame Graham—losing at cards, out of money, but not yet ready to quit for the evening—secured a loan of 1,000 pounds from a Colonel Archibald Campbell. Graham pledged as security the use of his estate to Campbell for the rest of ECONMATTERS: MAP SHOWS DEVASTATING CROP LOSSES ARE Heatmap From The April "Eye-Popping" CPI Report. As BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the "eye-popping" April CPI report was a "massive surprise" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of WHY M1 MONEY SUPPLY IS SKYROCKETING LIKE NO TIME IN This could be due to Biden’s promised termination of tax welfare to the rich. The first answer is my own surmising based on an article I just read about major tax-planning moves that are happening now in anticipation of Joe Biden’s promise finally to curtail the massive welfare to the rich that has gone on since the Reagan era (as the core of Reaganomics) in the form of that special tax ECONMATTERS: CONSUMER GOODS PRICES INCREASE BY MOST IN The bizarre phenomenon of companies complaining about “labor shortages” amid dropping job applicants, while 9.8 million are “unemployed,” and 16.2 million people claim unemployment benefits. Employers of all types – companies, governments, and nonprofits – reported that they added only 266,000 workers to their payrolls inApril
CHINESE BOMBERS CARRIED OUT "SIMULATED ATTACK" ON USS FT cites unnamed intelligence sources to report that "Chinese military aircraft simulated missile attacks on a nearby US aircraft carrier during an incursion into Taiwan’s air defense zone three days after Joe Biden’s inauguration, according to intelligence from the US and its allies." We earlier noted that on Sunday Taiwan reported a hugeABOUT | ECONMATTERS
EconMatters (The Site) is not intended to provide tax, legal, insurance or investment advice. Nothing on The Site should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by the Site or any third party. ECONMATTERS: THE FED'S "BASE-EFFECT" INFLATION ARGUMENT IS Welcome To EconMatters, home to the In depth analysis of global economic, stock, energy and commodity market events ECONMATTERS: TRANSITORY OR NOT, WE ARE IN A BRAVE NEW "Transitory" or not, Goldman's global head of commodities research, Jeffrey Currie, told Bloomberg this week that "we're in a new world," and nowhere is that more evident than in the record-setting increase in the price of commodities across the globe. From US/Canadian lumber to Chilean copper and Chinese Iron Ore, prices are soaring with Bloomberg's Spot Commodity Index up a stunning HEATMAP FROM THE APRIL "EYE-POPPING" CPI REPORT Heatmap From The April "Eye-Popping" CPI Report. As BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the "eye-popping" April CPI report was a "massive surprise" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of 0.3%. However, in some potentially mitigatingdetails, BofA
CALENDAR | ECONMATTERS Welcome To EconMatters, home to the In depth analysis of global economic, stock, energy and commodity market events ECONMATTERS: THE LUMBER MARKET IS HOT AND SEXY AGAIN (VIDEO) In this world, life is exactly what it is, nothing more and nothing less, and oftentimes there is a slight difference between potential outcomes. Thus, enjoy the moments when life smiles your way on this tumultuous planet. In this video, we discuss the Taiwan train incident, the recent Mexico City train bridge collapse, and otheraccident
STOCK MARKET CRASH BY THE FATAL TRUTH Here are the truths that have emerged like karmic genies: 1. The stock market is nothing but one giant fraud. The entire market is corrupt and rigged from the ground up. The fraud is systemic, designed into every tendril of the market. It was a useful deception to blame it all on "bad players," but now the truth has been revealed: the market is ECONMATTERS: ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX SCREAM STAGFLATION Welcome To EconMatters, home to the In depth analysis of global economic, stock, energy and commodity market events ECONMATTERS: AMERICA IS NOW A 3RD WORLD COUNTRY America Is Now a 3rd World Country. I know it hurts, but the reality is painfully obvious: the USA is now a 3rd World nation. Dividing the Earth's nations into 1st, 2nd and 3rd world has fallen out of favor; apparently it offended sensibilities. It has been replaced by the politically correct developed and developing nations, a terminology ECONMATTERS: MAY 2019 Welcome to the bidding war that didn't happen. The decision last week by international oil giant Chevron Corp. to leave its takeover bid for shale oil and gas-heavy Anadarko Petroleum Corp. unaltered in the wake of a higher offer from rival bidder Occidental Petroleum Corp. surprised some who had expected a back and forth escalation between the two competitors.* Home
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A SECOND LOCKDOWN IN AMERICA? May 26, 2020 undefinedRead more
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THE FOLLY OF "ASK WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR YOUR COUNTRY" May 26, 2020 undefinedRead more
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BANKRUPTCY COURTS TO FACE A TSUNAMI OF PEOPLE GOING BROKE FROM CORONAVIRUS SHUTDOWN May 14, 2020 undefinedRead more
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COVID-19 SHOCK TO THE ECONOMY Apr 29, 2020 undefinedRead more
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YOU CAN'T JUST "RESTART" THE ECONOMY WHERE YOU LEFT OFF Apr 20, 2020 undefinedRead more
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IMF: THE GREAT LOCKDOWN: WORST ECONOMIC DOWNTURN SINCE THE GREATDEPRESSION
Apr 20, 2020 undefinedRead more
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3 OBSERVATIONS AMID THE COVID-19 CRISIS Apr 14, 2020 undefinedRead more
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HOW HIGH WILL UNEMPLOYMENT GO? DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION, 1 IN 4 AMERICANS WERE OUT OF WORK Apr 06, 2020 undefinedRead more
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WHY THE $2 TRILLION COVID-19 STIMULUS PACKAGE WILL REMAIN HALF-BAKED Mar 27, 2020 undefinedRead more
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IF U.S. HAD MOVED JUST ONE WEEK FASTER, 35,000 CORONAVIRUS DEATHS COULD HAVE BEEN AVOIDED BY EARLY MAY May 27, 2020 undefined If cities across the U.S. had moved just one week faster to shut down restaurants and businesses and order residents to stay home, they could have avoided over 35,000 coronavirus deaths by...Read more
ECONMATTERS
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EIA OIL MARKET ANALYSIS – BEARISH FUNDAMENTALS EMERGING IN YEAR OVERYEAR COMPS
By EconMattersIntroductionIn our past EIA reports this year, we referenced the fact that the inventory data wasn`t matching up to price expectations and the overall bullish sentiment con...*
GASOLINE MARKET TIGHTENING IN LATEST EIA ENERGY REPORT By EconMattersIntroductionAfter last week`s surprising build of 7.2 million barrels in the oil market, we were wondering if this was an anomaly, the effects of the shipping channel disru...*
EIA OIL INVENTORY ANALYSIS, APRIL 3, 2019 By EconMattersFirst Quarter ReboundThe oil market has had quite a robust first quarter right along with equities as the Fed has pulled back from rate hikes, taken a more dovish tone, and...*
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE OIL MARKET By EconMatters IntroductionThere are a lot of cross currents in the oil market right now with slowing growth in China and the United States from a Trade War, a prolonged government shut...*
THE FOURTH QUARTER MARKET MELTDOWN EXPLAINED By EconMattersCorrelated ChaosThe financial markets these days are highly leveraged, especially with loose monetary policy of the last decade providing ample credit for one sided risk ta...*
GASOLINE INVENTORIES AT RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR By EconMattersOil Market SpeculationIt is ironic that as Oil markets are at multi year highs and so are gasoline inventories for this time of year. But that is what you get in futures dr...* 1
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IF U.S. HAD MOVED JUST ONE WEEK FASTER, 35,000 CORONAVIRUS DEATHS COULD HAVE BEEN AVOIDED BY EARLY MAYEUROPE
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TRUMP SIGNS CORONAVIRUS RELIEF BILL, ECB INJECTS $821B IN LIQUIDITY, JAPAN CONSIDERS CASH PAYOUTSCHINA
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CHINA IS ITS OWN WORST ENEMYEMERGING MARKETS
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IEA: ASIA SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARSRECENT POST
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CHINA IS ITS OWN WORST ENEMY May 27, 2020 - undefined The global backlash against China over its culpability for the international spread of the deadly coronavirus from Wuhan has gained momentum in recent weeks. A...Read more
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"NEGATIVE" INTEREST RATES AND A CASHLESS SOCIETY May 27, 2020 - undefinedRead more
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IF U.S. HAD MOVED JUST ONE WEEK FASTER, 35,000 CORONAVIRUS DEATHS COULD HAVE BEEN AVOIDED BY EARLY MAY May 27, 2020 - undefinedRead more
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A SECOND LOCKDOWN IN AMERICA? May 26, 2020 - undefinedRead more
COMMODITIES
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WHY THE US-IRAN CONFLICT ISN’T DRIVING OIL PRICES HIGHER – AND WHYIT PROBABLY SHOULD
Jan 29, 2020 - undefined Assassinations, militaries on high alert, geopolitical tensions at the boil. Any one of these in Persian Gulf countries would have roiled oil prices a few year...Read more
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ENERGY OUTLOOK 2020
Jan 13, 2020 - undefinedRead more
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GUYANA: FROM GOLD, SUGAR TO OIL Dec 04, 2019 - undefinedRead more
ENERGY
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COVID-19: BEWARE OF OVERDOING THE LOCKDOWN AND QUARANTINE Mar 24, 2020 - undefined We have learned historically that if we can isolate sick people, we can often keep a communicable disease from spreading. Unfortunately, the situation with the...Read more
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THE RESURGENCE OF RESOURCE NATIONALISM Feb 23, 2020 - undefinedRead more
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WHEN A SHALE OIL PRODUCER GOES OFFSHORE Feb 12, 2020 - undefinedRead more
CURRENCY
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VIETNAM: RUMP'S NEXT TRADE WAR TARGET: Jul 22, 2019 - undefined Southeast Asian nation has dramatically whipsawed between US-China trade war winner to potential next big tariffed loser The popular consensus is that Vietnam ...Read more
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CHINA TRIES TO REPLACE DOLLAR AS DOMINANT ‘PAYMENTS CURRENCY,’ May 02, 2019 - undefinedRead more
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IS THE DOLLAR ABOUT TO CRASH? Mar 26, 2019 - undefinedRead more
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DOLLAR: THE DOG NEITHER BARKS NOR BITES Jan 30, 2019 - undefinedRead more
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EUROPE IN CHOPPY WATER AMID BREXIT AND CRISIS IN ITALY Oct 23, 2018 - undefinedRead more
RETIREMENT
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ROTH IRA CONTRIBUTIONS AND CONVERSIONS Nov 10, 2019 - undefined A few AAII members asked me questions about Roth IRA conversions following the portfolio strategy boot camp I gave a day before our recent Investor Conferen...Read more
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TOP TIPS TO START INVESTING WITH LITTLE MONEY Oct 25, 2018 - undefinedRead more
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HOW WILL TRUMP’S TAX REFORMS AFFECT SENIOR AMERICANS? Oct 03, 2017 - undefinedRead more
GEOPOLITICS
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CHINA IS ITS OWN WORST ENEMY May 27, 2020 - undefined The global backlash against China over its culpability for the international spread of the deadly coronavirus from Wuhan has gained momentum in recent weeks. A...Read more
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CHINA EXAPNDING IN ASIA WHILE COVID-19 ROILING OTHERS May 03, 2020 - undefinedRead more
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THE RESURGENCE OF RESOURCE NATIONALISM Feb 23, 2020 - undefinedRead more
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IRAN, ENERGY AND WAR Jan 29, 2020 - undefinedRead more
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WHY THE US-IRAN CONFLICT ISN’T DRIVING OIL PRICES HIGHER – AND WHYIT PROBABLY SHOULD
Jan 29, 2020 - undefinedRead more
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WHAT TO WATCH IN GEOPOLITICS IN 2020 Jan 18, 2020 - undefinedRead more
POLITICS
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THE FOLLY OF "ASK WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR YOUR COUNTRY" May 26, 2020 - undefined Recently, I was reminded of John F. Kennedy’s most famous line, “Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country,” when I hear...Read more
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COEXISTENCE WITH CHINA OR COLD WAR II? May 14, 2020 - undefinedRead more
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THE TRUTH BEHIND THE “TRADE DEAL” WITH CHINA Oct 19, 2019 - undefinedRead more
TECHNOLOGY
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HOW A CORONAVIRUS CASE IN KOREA INSTANTLY HIT A SMALL BUSINESS IN THEUS
Feb 29, 2020 - undefined Everyone is trying to figure out how to get around the sudden hurdles. A small US company that specializes in exporting US frozen and refrigerated food produc...Read more
May 27, 2020
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CHINA IS ITS OWN WORST ENEMY 5/27/2020 02:00:00 PM The global backlash against China over its culpability for the international spread of the deadly coronavirus from Wuhan has gained...
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"NEGATIVE" INTEREST RATES AND A CASHLESS SOCIETY 5/27/2020 11:24:00 AM Why are Central Banks promoting the idea of a Cashless Society? The talking heads featured on the corporate mainstream media have...Email This
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IF U.S. HAD MOVED JUST ONE WEEK FASTER, 35,000 CORONAVIRUS DEATHS COULD HAVE BEEN AVOIDED BY EARLY MAY 5/27/2020 08:15:00 AM If cities across the U.S. had moved just one week faster to shut down restaurants and businesses and order residents to stay home, ...Email This
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May 26, 2020
Buchanan
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A SECOND LOCKDOWN IN AMERICA? 5/26/2020 02:00:00 PM The protesters seem to be saying: We deplore the losses and know the risks, but we cannot live our lives behind closed doors in o...Email This
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THE FOLLY OF "ASK WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR YOUR COUNTRY" 5/26/2020 11:00:00 AM Recently, I was reminded of John F. Kennedy’s most famous line, “Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do fo...Email This
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WHY BUFFETT WAS WRONG TO DUMP AIRLINES 5/26/2020 08:00:00 AM Warren Buffett is arguably the most respected and accomplished investor in U.S. history. He turned Berkshire Hathaway, astruggling...
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May 25, 2020
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WATCH FOR 3 POLICY SHIFTS IN CHINA IN RESPONSE TO VIRUS IMPACT 5/25/2020 06:55:00 PM China is poised to announce new policy initiatives later this month to cushion the pandemic’s fallout, including possible fiscal st...Email This
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WHY BUFFETT WAS WRONG TO DUMP AIRLINES May 26, 2020 - undefined Warren Buffett is arguably the most respected and accomplished investor in U.S. history. He turned Berkshire Hathaway, a struggling textile company, into a mu...Read more
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BOND
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SEARCH OF INCOME IN EMERGING MARKET DEBT CENTRAL BANKS ARE SHIFTING TOWARD MONETARY EASING, AS THEY AIM TO CUSHION A GLOBAL SLOWDOWN SPARKED BY TRADE TENSIONS. THIS POLICY PIVOTSHOULD ...
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YIELD
AS A VALUATION AND RISK INDICATOR YIELD IS COMMONLY VIEWED FROM THE STANDPOINT OF INCOME. IT’S A MEASURE OF HOW MUCH CASH YOU CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE FROM AN INVESTMENT,SUCH AS A ...
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= THE CRITICAL NUMBER TO WATCH IN 2020 IN THE SEASON OF PROLIFERATING 2020 OUTLOOKS, AND IN AN AGE OF ONE-WORD ANSWERS TO COMPLEX QUESTIONS, OFTEN ENDING IN HEDGED LANGUAGE LIKE “–ISH,”...*
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RESILIENCE OF US BOND MARKETS THE LONG-RUNNING BULL MARKET IN BONDS CONTINUES TO DEFY BEARISH FORECASTS, AS SHOWN BY A SET OF EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS. POSITIVEYEAR-TO-DATE PER...
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SEARCH OF INCOME IN EMERGING MARKET DEBT CENTRAL BANKS ARE SHIFTING TOWARD MONETARY EASING, AS THEY AIM TO CUSHION A GLOBAL SLOWDOWN SPARKED BY TRADE TENSIONS. THIS POLICY PIVOTSHOULD ...
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YIELD
AS A VALUATION AND RISK INDICATOR YIELD IS COMMONLY VIEWED FROM THE STANDPOINT OF INCOME. IT’S A MEASURE OF HOW MUCH CASH YOU CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE FROM AN INVESTMENT,SUCH AS A ...
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