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FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. POLITICS – FIVETHIRTYEIGHT What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About 2022. FiveThirtyEight. May 28, 2021 6:00 AM. What’s Happening In Arizona Is Not Really An Audit Or A Recount. ItLATEST POLLS
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. WILL 2022 BE A GOOD YEAR FOR REPUBLICANS? Our average gave Democrats an 8.7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8.6 points. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in 2021 MLB PREDICTIONS 2021 MLB Predictions. Proj. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an 2020-21 NBA PREDICTIONS 2020-21 NBA Predictions. Standings Games. Teams 76ers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers Grizzlies Hawks Heat Hornets Jazz Kings Knicks Lakers Magic Mavericks Nets Nuggets Pacers Pelicans Pistons Raptors Rockets Spurs Suns Thunder Timberwolves Trail Blazers Warriors Wizards Teams 76ers Blazers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers 11 HOUSE MEMBERS HAVE SAID THEY’RE NOT RUNNING AGAIN. HERE Here’s Why That’s Important. Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan is one of the 11 House members who won’t run for reelection in 2022. We’re still more than a year away from the 2022 midterms, but we’re DOES YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS VOTE WITH OR AGAINST BIDEN Votes. -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Joe Manchin Susan Collins Mitch McConnell Elizabeth Warren Kyrsten Sinema Biden Margin Biden Score States Biden won States Biden lost Votes more with Biden Votes less with Biden. Biden margin. Biden’s share of the vote in the 2020 election minus Trump’s.Biden
WHY JOE MANCHIN IS SO WILLING AND ABLE TO BLOCK HIS PARTY Why Joe Manchin Is So Willing And Able To Block His Party’s Goals. Senate Democrats need all 50 members of their caucus to band togetherto
HOW POPULAR IS JOE BIDEN? Ronald Reagan 1981-89. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. Gerald Ford 1974-77. Richard Nixon 1969-74. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. John F. Kennedy 1961-63. Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-61. Harry S. Truman 1945-53. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown.FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. POLITICS – FIVETHIRTYEIGHT What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About 2022. FiveThirtyEight. May 28, 2021 6:00 AM. What’s Happening In Arizona Is Not Really An Audit Or A Recount. ItLATEST POLLS
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. WILL 2022 BE A GOOD YEAR FOR REPUBLICANS? Our average gave Democrats an 8.7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8.6 points. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in 2021 MLB PREDICTIONS 2021 MLB Predictions. Proj. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an 2020-21 NBA PREDICTIONS 2020-21 NBA Predictions. Standings Games. Teams 76ers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers Grizzlies Hawks Heat Hornets Jazz Kings Knicks Lakers Magic Mavericks Nets Nuggets Pacers Pelicans Pistons Raptors Rockets Spurs Suns Thunder Timberwolves Trail Blazers Warriors Wizards Teams 76ers Blazers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers 11 HOUSE MEMBERS HAVE SAID THEY’RE NOT RUNNING AGAIN. HERE Here’s Why That’s Important. Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan is one of the 11 House members who won’t run for reelection in 2022. We’re still more than a year away from the 2022 midterms, but we’re DOES YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS VOTE WITH OR AGAINST BIDEN Votes. -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Joe Manchin Susan Collins Mitch McConnell Elizabeth Warren Kyrsten Sinema Biden Margin Biden Score States Biden won States Biden lost Votes more with Biden Votes less with Biden. Biden margin. Biden’s share of the vote in the 2020 election minus Trump’s.Biden
WHY JOE MANCHIN IS SO WILLING AND ABLE TO BLOCK HIS PARTY Why Joe Manchin Is So Willing And Able To Block His Party’s Goals. Senate Democrats need all 50 members of their caucus to band togetherto
HOW POPULAR IS JOE BIDEN? Ronald Reagan 1981-89. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. Gerald Ford 1974-77. Richard Nixon 1969-74. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. John F. Kennedy 1961-63. Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-61. Harry S. Truman 1945-53. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. SPORTS – FIVETHIRTYEIGHT Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight is the authoritative source for sports analytics, covering MLB, the NBA, NFL, and beyond. HOW TRUMP’S REMOVAL FROM SOCIAL MEDIA COULD AFFECT HIS 1 day ago · Facebook said last month that it plans to suspend Donald Trump for at least the next two years, which, coupled with his permanent suspension from REPUBLICANS REALLY, REALLY DISLIKE BIDEN. BUT IT’S NOT Republicans Really, Really Dislike Biden. But It’s Not Just About Him. In our current politics, voters from the party that’s out of power intensely oppose the president. THE REASON BLACK AMERICANS ARE GETTING VACCINATED AT A The early data we have on vaccination rates is incomplete, but one fact is particularly alarming: Black Americans are getting vaccinatedat a much
WHY IT’S SO HARD TO GAUGE SUPPORT FOR QANON 1 day ago · Why it’s so hard to poll Americans about QAnon. The other statements that PRRI polled, about a “storm coming” to “sweep away elites in power,” (20 percent) and that “patriotsmay have
KIDS CAN’T GET THE COVID-19 VACCINE YET. HOW MUCH OF A For example, even after many school districts had been open for a while last fall and case numbers were rising to a surge, a study modeling the spread of COVID-19 in HOW LOW CAN AMERICA’S BIRTH RATE GO BEFORE IT’S A PROBLEM? The U.S. fertility rate hit a record low in 2020 — just as it did in 2019, and 2018. Although the COVID-19 pandemic seems to have accelerated this decline, the drop has been underway for years WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE WEIRD STANLEY CUP SEMIFINALS 1 day ago · terrence.doyle: The Bruins outplayed the Isles in terms of expected goals in four of the six games. Of course, expected goals don’t always equal real goals, and Varlamov was the reason why. CAN YOU SPLIT THE STATES? 1 day ago · Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Expressfor
HOW WELL DID OUR SPORTS PREDICTIONS HOLD UP DURING A YEAR In terms of overall accuracy, 2020 wasn’t our baseball model’s worst year — though it wasn’t its best, either. The model’s 2020 Brier score (0.243) was tied with 2017 for the worstFIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. POLITICS – FIVETHIRTYEIGHT What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About 2022. FiveThirtyEight. May 28, 2021 6:00 AM. What’s Happening In Arizona Is Not Really An Audit Or A Recount. It2022 ELECTION
May 20, 2021. 11 House Members Have Said They’re Not Running Again. Here’s Why That’s Important. By Geoffrey Skelley. Filed under 2022 Election. May 12, 2021. WILL 2022 BE A GOOD YEAR FOR REPUBLICANS? Our average gave Democrats an 8.7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8.6 points. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more inLATEST POLLS
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. 2020-21 NBA PREDICTIONS 2020-21 NBA Predictions. Standings Games. Teams 76ers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers Grizzlies Hawks Heat Hornets Jazz Kings Knicks Lakers Magic Mavericks Nets Nuggets Pacers Pelicans Pistons Raptors Rockets Spurs Suns Thunder Timberwolves Trail Blazers Warriors Wizards Teams 76ers Blazers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers 2021 MLB PREDICTIONS Proj. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of theseason
HOW POPULAR IS JOE BIDEN? Harry S. Truman 1945-53. 1 year 2 3 4 20 50 80%. % Truman % Truman % Biden % Biden. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Design and development by Aaron Bycoffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver. 11 HOUSE MEMBERS HAVE SAID THEY’RE NOT RUNNING AGAIN. HERE Here’s Why That’s Important. Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan is one of the 11 House members who won’t run for reelection in 2022. We’re still more than a year away from the 2022 midterms, but we’re BUILD AN NBA CONTENDER WITH OUR ROSTER-SHUFFLING MACHINE How this works: When a trade is made, our model updates the rosters of the teams involved and reallocates the number of minutes each player is expected to play. We then run our full NBA forecast with the new lineups to produce updated win totals and playoff probabilities. Injury icons are an approximation of the share of minutes that a player will miss through the rest of the season becauseFIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. POLITICS – FIVETHIRTYEIGHT What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About 2022. FiveThirtyEight. May 28, 2021 6:00 AM. What’s Happening In Arizona Is Not Really An Audit Or A Recount. It2022 ELECTION
May 20, 2021. 11 House Members Have Said They’re Not Running Again. Here’s Why That’s Important. By Geoffrey Skelley. Filed under 2022 Election. May 12, 2021. WILL 2022 BE A GOOD YEAR FOR REPUBLICANS? Our average gave Democrats an 8.7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8.6 points. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more inLATEST POLLS
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. 2020-21 NBA PREDICTIONS 2020-21 NBA Predictions. Standings Games. Teams 76ers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers Grizzlies Hawks Heat Hornets Jazz Kings Knicks Lakers Magic Mavericks Nets Nuggets Pacers Pelicans Pistons Raptors Rockets Spurs Suns Thunder Timberwolves Trail Blazers Warriors Wizards Teams 76ers Blazers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers 2021 MLB PREDICTIONS Proj. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of theseason
HOW POPULAR IS JOE BIDEN? Harry S. Truman 1945-53. 1 year 2 3 4 20 50 80%. % Truman % Truman % Biden % Biden. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Design and development by Aaron Bycoffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver. 11 HOUSE MEMBERS HAVE SAID THEY’RE NOT RUNNING AGAIN. HERE Here’s Why That’s Important. Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan is one of the 11 House members who won’t run for reelection in 2022. We’re still more than a year away from the 2022 midterms, but we’re BUILD AN NBA CONTENDER WITH OUR ROSTER-SHUFFLING MACHINE How this works: When a trade is made, our model updates the rosters of the teams involved and reallocates the number of minutes each player is expected to play. We then run our full NBA forecast with the new lineups to produce updated win totals and playoff probabilities. Injury icons are an approximation of the share of minutes that a player will miss through the rest of the season because HOW FIVETHIRTYEIGHT’S 2020 FORECASTS DID AND WHAT WE’LL BE 1 day ago · It turns out that the “simple” Lite version of our model called 455 of the 472 races correctly, as compared to 450 for Classic and 451 for Deluxe. That’s a surprise, perhaps, especially HOW LOW CAN AMERICA’S BIRTH RATE GO BEFORE IT’S A PROBLEM? 11 hours ago · The U.S. fertility rate hit a record low in 2020 — just as it did in 2019, and 2018. Although the COVID-19 pandemic seems to have accelerated this decline, the drop has been underway for years HOW WELL DID OUR SPORTS PREDICTIONS HOLD UP DURING A YEAR 1 day ago · In terms of overall accuracy, 2020 wasn’t our baseball model’s worst year — though it wasn’t its best, either. The model’s 2020 Brier score (0.243) was tied with 2017 for the worst DEANDRE AYTON HAS ARRIVED 8 hours ago · Deandre Ayton Has Arrived The former No. 1 overall draft pick is making a difference on both ends of the court during his first playoff appearance. WITH THE JULIO JONES TRADE, DID BOTH ATLANTA AND TENNESSEE 1 day ago · First, we discuss the big news out of the NFL: Julio Jones is no longer a Falcon, and however weird that might be to fans in Atlanta, it was a long time coming. FiveThirtyEight NFL analystJosh
WHY MOST CANDIDATES DON’T RUN AGAIN AFTER LOSING TWICE 15 hours ago · On paper, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke and current Florida Rep. Charlie Crist have little in common. The former, a somewhat progressive three-term Democratic House member with a ZACK WHEELER WAS ALWAYS THE NEXT BIG THING. HE’S FINALLY 9 hours ago · Zack Wheeler might be baseball's best-kept secret. There was a time when the New York Mets’ young starting rotation was the envy of all of Major NOBODY SHUTS DOWN THE PAINT LIKE THE JAZZ. BUT WHAT IF THE 1 day ago · Unfortunately for Utah, the team it’s facing in the second round of the NBA playoffs is one of the rare few that doesn’t prioritize access to the paint to create efficient offense — and inSTEPHANIE H. MURRAY
11 hours ago · Stephanie H. Murray is a public policy researcher turned freelance journalist. THE BEST NBA PLAYERS, ACCORDING TO RAPTOR The Best NBA Players, According To RAPTOR Our ratings, updated daily, use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement, which accounts for playing timeFIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. POLITICS – FIVETHIRTYEIGHT What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About 2022. FiveThirtyEight. May 28, 2021 6:00 AM. What’s Happening In Arizona Is Not Really An Audit Or A Recount. It SPORTS – FIVETHIRTYEIGHT Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight is the authoritative source for sports analytics, covering MLB, the NBA, NFL, and beyond.2022 ELECTION
May 20, 2021. 11 House Members Have Said They’re Not Running Again. Here’s Why That’s Important. By Geoffrey Skelley. Filed under 2022 Election. May 12, 2021.LATEST POLLS
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. 2020-21 NBA PREDICTIONS 2020-21 NBA Predictions. Standings Games. Teams 76ers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers Grizzlies Hawks Heat Hornets Jazz Kings Knicks Lakers Magic Mavericks Nets Nuggets Pacers Pelicans Pistons Raptors Rockets Spurs Suns Thunder Timberwolves Trail Blazers Warriors Wizards Teams 76ers Blazers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers 2021 MLB PREDICTIONS Proj. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of theseason
WHERE DID ALL THE BELLWETHER COUNTIES GO? Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election everysingle time. The
HOW POPULAR IS JOE BIDEN? Harry S. Truman 1945-53. 1 year 2 3 4 20 50 80%. % Truman % Truman % Biden % Biden. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Design and development by Aaron Bycoffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver. FINALLY, A PERSONALITY QUIZ BACKED BY SCIENCE First, the Big Five doesn’t put people into neat personality “types,” because that’s not how personalities really work. Instead, the quiz gives you a score on five different traits: extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, negative emotionality and openness to experience. For each of those traits, you’re gradedon a scale from
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. POLITICS – FIVETHIRTYEIGHT What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About 2022. FiveThirtyEight. May 28, 2021 6:00 AM. What’s Happening In Arizona Is Not Really An Audit Or A Recount. It SPORTS – FIVETHIRTYEIGHT Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight is the authoritative source for sports analytics, covering MLB, the NBA, NFL, and beyond.2022 ELECTION
May 20, 2021. 11 House Members Have Said They’re Not Running Again. Here’s Why That’s Important. By Geoffrey Skelley. Filed under 2022 Election. May 12, 2021.LATEST POLLS
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. 2020-21 NBA PREDICTIONS 2020-21 NBA Predictions. Standings Games. Teams 76ers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers Grizzlies Hawks Heat Hornets Jazz Kings Knicks Lakers Magic Mavericks Nets Nuggets Pacers Pelicans Pistons Raptors Rockets Spurs Suns Thunder Timberwolves Trail Blazers Warriors Wizards Teams 76ers Blazers Bucks Bulls Cavaliers Celtics Clippers 2021 MLB PREDICTIONS Proj. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of theseason
WHERE DID ALL THE BELLWETHER COUNTIES GO? Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election everysingle time. The
HOW POPULAR IS JOE BIDEN? Harry S. Truman 1945-53. 1 year 2 3 4 20 50 80%. % Truman % Truman % Biden % Biden. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Design and development by Aaron Bycoffe and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver. FINALLY, A PERSONALITY QUIZ BACKED BY SCIENCE First, the Big Five doesn’t put people into neat personality “types,” because that’s not how personalities really work. Instead, the quiz gives you a score on five different traits: extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, negative emotionality and openness to experience. For each of those traits, you’re gradedon a scale from
HOW FIVETHIRTYEIGHT’S 2020 FORECASTS DID AND WHAT WE’LL BE 18 minutes ago · It turns out that the “simple” Lite version of our model called 455 of the 472 races correctly, as compared to 450 for Classic and 451 for Deluxe. That’s a surprise, perhaps,especially
CULTURE – FIVETHIRTYEIGHT From trends in online dating to analysis of which airline is most likely to land its planes on time, FiveThirtyEight tells the lifestyle stories you’ll want to share with your friends. POLITICS PODCAST: ONE SPECIAL ELECTION CAN’T FORECAST THE 11 hours ago · Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District by a 25-point margin on Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did HOW WELL DID OUR SPORTS PREDICTIONS HOLD UP DURING A YEAR 18 minutes ago · In terms of overall accuracy, 2020 wasn’t our baseball model’s worst year — though it wasn’t its best, either. The model’s 2020 Brier score (0.243) was tied with 2017 for theworst
THE RIDDLER
Welcome to The Riddler, your weekly set of puzzles. June 4, 2021 3:35 PM Politics Podcast: How The Politics Of Cities Shape The DemocraticParty
WHY THE METS MIGHT ACTUALLY BE GOOD 16 hours ago · If we rank off base runs’ expectations instead of the actual numbers, New York still ranks 28th in scoring but easily has the best run-prevention corps in MLB — a full half-run betterthan the
NOBODY SHUTS DOWN THE PAINT LIKE THE JAZZ. BUT WHAT IF THE 18 minutes ago · Unfortunately for Utah, the team it’s facing in the second round of the NBA playoffs is one of the rare few that doesn’t prioritize access to the paint to create efficient offense— and in
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING IN THE VIRGINIA AND NEW JERSEY 1 day ago · However, given how racially and ideologically diverse the primary field is in a political party that is also diverse, the fact that McAuliffe is an older white man has meant there is a lot oftalk
CAN NETS-BUCKS LIVE UP TO THE HYPE? tchow (Tony Chow, video producer):NBA fans, we’re back with our NBA postseason chats! On the heels of the defending champions’ elimination, I’ve asked Jared Dubin, Andres Waters and Louis WHY TEXAS DEMOCRATS WALKED OUT Voting regulations in Texas were already among the most stringent in the nation, but that didn’t stop Republican lawmakers in the state from trying to pass a bill that would, among other things Skip to main content__
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