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ALL-PRO VOTING: COMPARING BARRY SANDERS AND EMMITT SMITH Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith are two of the greatest running backs in NFL history. They also happened to be contemporaries, which let NFL fans and analysts compare them year after year. Today, I want to review how the media viewed these two players. Sanders entered the NFL a year before Smith, and was an LEADING RUSHERS IN EACH SUPER BOWL The last running back to win the Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis, which happened over 20 Super Bowls ago. One reason for that is a decline in big rushing games in the Super Bowl, particularly with respect to the winning team. Just once in the last 16 Super Bowls — Dominic Rhodes back in THE ORIGIN OF THE NAME ‘REDSKINS’ The federal government, which has " Tomahawk" cruise missiles and "Apache," "Blackhawk," 'Kiowa" and "Lakota' helicopters - and used the code name "Geronimo" in the attack that killed Osama bin Laden, officially objects to the name of the Washington Redskins. The words red skin was originated sometime in the 1700s. FOOTBALLPERSPECTIVE.COM Draft Capital Spent on Quarterbacks: 1950 to 2020. Update: The 2021 NFL Draft saw 156.7 points of draft value spent on quarterbacks, the 2nd-most in NFL history behind only 1999. As expected, Lawrence and Wilson were the first two picks, with Lance going third overall. THE GRAND LIST, OR: THE TOP 1000 FOOTBALL PLAYERS IN The Grand List, part 21. by Bryan Frye on May 17, 2021. in History. Strap in for part 21 of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in pro football history (who played enough time in the NFL to show they could succeed there). Doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but I’ve never been much for marketing and SEO optimization. HBCUS AND THE NFL DRAFT: THE LIST HBCUs and the NFL Draft: The List. There are over 100 academic institutions that are identified by the US Department of Education as Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). But when it comes to football, three stand out: Grambling State University is located in northern Louisiana in the city of Grambling. THE DEFINITIVE ANALYSIS OF OFFENSIVE FUMBLES 100.0%. 6.7%. 19.1%. 24.1%. 50.1%. 67.6%. As an example, look at the second to last row which shows fumbles following completed pass plays. This tells us that 21% of all offensive fumbles come on these types of plays. A good chunk of them go out of bounds (17%), and one in ten are recovered by the fumbler. HOW HARD IS IT TO BEAT A TEAM THREE TIMES IN ONE SEASON? It is hard to beat a good team three times in a season, they say. Since the 1970 NFL Merger, there have been 21 instances where a team swept a team in the regular season and then had a third battle in the playoffs. The sweeping team has gone 14-7 in those games, which means WHICH POSITION IS MORE VALUABLE: WIDE RECEIVER OR The debate was intense this spring. The Cincinnati Bengals desperately needed to help young quarterback Joe Burrow, and there were likely going to be two outstanding offensive prospects available for Cincinnati. But those players would help the offense in drastically different ways. One option was to draft Burrow’s AVERAGE HEIGHT OF DEFENSIVE BACKS AND WIDE RECEIVERS Average Height of Defensive Backs and Wide Receivers. In 1973, the top five fantasy wide receivers were 6’8 Harold Carmichael, 6’3 Charley Taylor, a pair of 6’1 guys in John Gilliam and Isaac Curtis, and 5’10 Harold Jackson. In 1988, the top five fantasy wide receivers were 6’2 Jerry Rice, a pair of 5’11 players in HenryEllard and
ALL-PRO VOTING: COMPARING BARRY SANDERS AND EMMITT SMITH Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith are two of the greatest running backs in NFL history. They also happened to be contemporaries, which let NFL fans and analysts compare them year after year. Today, I want to review how the media viewed these two players. Sanders entered the NFL a year before Smith, and was an LEADING RUSHERS IN EACH SUPER BOWL The last running back to win the Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis, which happened over 20 Super Bowls ago. One reason for that is a decline in big rushing games in the Super Bowl, particularly with respect to the winning team. Just once in the last 16 Super Bowls — Dominic Rhodes back in THE ORIGIN OF THE NAME ‘REDSKINS’ The federal government, which has " Tomahawk" cruise missiles and "Apache," "Blackhawk," 'Kiowa" and "Lakota' helicopters - and used the code name "Geronimo" in the attack that killed Osama bin Laden, officially objects to the name of the Washington Redskins. The words red skin was originated sometime in the 1700s. RECEIVERS - FOOTBALLPERSPECTIVE.COM Adam Steele is back with a long-awaited wide receiver edition of his beloved Wisdom of Crowds exercise. We thank him for the beautiful discussion it will prompt. It’s been a few years since FP has run a Wisdom of the Crowds exercise, and this time around we’re going to do wide receivers. For THE GRAND LIST, OR: THE TOP 1000 FOOTBALL PLAYERS IN The Grand List, part 21. by Bryan Frye on May 17, 2021. in History. Strap in for part 21 of the Grand List, or: the top 1000 players in pro football history (who played enough time in the NFL to show they could succeed there). Doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but I’ve never been much for marketing and SEO optimization. HBCUS AND THE NFL DRAFT: THE LIST HBCUs and the NFL Draft: The List. There are over 100 academic institutions that are identified by the US Department of Education as Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). But when it comes to football, three stand out: Grambling State University is located in northern Louisiana in the city of Grambling. HISTORY OF TRADING THE FIRST OVERALL PICK IN THE NFL DRAFT 1997: St. Louis trades up to select Orlando Pace. Rams trade the 6th pick, third round pick ( Dan Neil ), fourth round pick ( Terry Day ), and seventh round pick ( Koy Detmer) to New York for the first overall pick. The Jets had the first pick for the second year in a row, going 1-15 a year after selecting Keyshawn Johnson. THE HISTORY OF BLACK QUARTERBACKS IN THE NFL Five years ago, I wrote a four part series detailing the history of the black quarterback.With February being Black History Month and Super Bowl XLVII marking the 25th anniversary of Doug Williams becoming the first black quarterback to win a Super Bowl, I figured it was worth another trip down memory lane.. The history of black quarterbacks in professional football is complicated. CREATING A NFL DRAFT VALUE CHART, PART I In the NFL draft value chart, the first pick is worth 3,000 points, while all 224 picks are worth a total of 60,684 points. As a result, the first pick counts for 4.9% of the entire draft value, compared to just 2.1% in this modified AV system: As you can see, the charts look pretty different. According to the AV graph, the top picks are LONGEST ACTIVE STREAKS WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION Some fun with play by play data this morning. As you know, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Marcus Mariota are the only starting quarterbacks that have not thrown an interception so far this year. Going back to the 2019 regular season and playoffs, Mahomes has now gone 274 passes without throwing an interception, W NFL PLAYOFF SEEDINGS The 2 seed can make it by beating the 5 seed (18% chance, 65% conditional win probability, 12% chance the 2 seed makes it by beating the 5 seed), the 4 seed (22%, 70%, 15%), or the 3 seed (60%, 60%, 36%), for a 63% chance. You can do this calculation for all the seeds. The 6 seed, for example, only has an 8% chance (40% chance in the WildCard
WINNING THE TURNOVER BATTLE Winning The Turnover Battle. by Chase Stuart on April 24, 2017. in History. It’s one of football’s oldest maxims: the key to winning the game is to win the turnover battle. This works better as an explanation for why a team won rather than as a cause of success — correlation doesn’t equal causation, of course — but thatdoesn’t mean
THE ORIGIN OF THE NAME ‘REDSKINS’ The federal government, which has " Tomahawk" cruise missiles and "Apache," "Blackhawk," 'Kiowa" and "Lakota' helicopters - and used the code name "Geronimo" in the attack that killed Osama bin Laden, officially objects to the name of the Washington Redskins. The words red skin was originated sometime in the 1700s.≡ Menu
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JASON GARRETT COST DALLAS A CHANCE TO WIN THE GAME by Chase Stuart on October 14, 2019in Coaches
I’m telling you, Dak, Tom Landry never went for 2. In week 6, the Cowboys traveled to MetLife Stadium to face the Jets in what looked to be an easy win for Dallas. It was not: Sam Darnold injected some much needed offense into a lifeless Jets team, highlighted by a 92-yard touchdown passto Robby
Anderson
.
New York played well, but Dallas did have a chance to steal a come-from-behind victory. To do that, however, it would have requiredJason Garrett
to
maximize his team’s win probability with thoughtful end-game strategy. Instead, Garrett made two key blunders in the 4th quarter of Sunday’s game, lowering the Cowboys chances of completing acomeback.
Seven years ago, I wrote that when trailing by 15 points midway through the fourth quarter, a team that scores a touchdown should go for two. Midway through the fourth quarter, Dallas trailed the Jets by 12 points — which, math experts may quickly realize, is a 15-point lead minus one field goal. Therefore, the same logic applies, and you’ll see why in a moment.Ezekiel Elliott
rushed for a touchdown with 6:36 remaining, and this is when the Cowboys should have gone for two. And this is not Monday morning quarterbacking: I tweeted as such in real time. Instead,
Dallas sent out the kicker and cut the lead to 5 points.
The Jets responded with a field goal, which highlighted the problem. That made it a 8-point game, which is why it was a mistake to not go for two earlier. Just like when you score a touchdown down by 15, you want to go for two to make it either a 7-point game or a 9-point game. When trailing by 15, you need to score two touchdowns and convert a two-point conversion. If you convert the two-point conversion, IT DOESN’T MATTER WHETHER YOU GO FOR TWO AFTER THE FIRST TOUCHDOWN OR THE SECOND TOUCHDOWN (although, of course, only if you go for it the first time can you try to win the game with a 2-point attempt after the second touchdown). If you miss the two point conversion attempt, however, it makes a very big difference. Dallas was ignorant of the situation: by going for 1, the Cowboys did not know that they would go on to fail on their two-point conversion attempt. Here’s what actually happened: after the Jets kicked a field goal, Dallas took over with 3:23 remaining, and casually drove down the field, scoring with 47 seconds left. The Cowboys then missed the 2-point conversion play, effectively ending the game (more on thisin a minute).
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WHEN DOES ANY/A GET IT WRONG? BY ADAM STEELE by Chase Stuart on October 13, 2019in Passing ,
Theory
Adam Steele is back for another guest post. You can view all ofAdam’s posts here
. As always, we
thank him for contributing. ------------------------- When Does ANY/A Get It Wrong? In Chase’s review of week one passing stats,
I commented that the league’s passing efficiency was inflated byANY/A
in comparison to expected points added (EPA). Today’s post takes a deeper dive into the discrepancy between ANY/A and EPA and which quarterbacks look better in each metric. While ANY/A is a good metric for quick and dirty analysis, it ignores a number of important variables for accurately measuring a quarterback’s passing efficiency. These variables include: first downs, failed completions, air yard / YAC splits, dropped passes, fumbles, the context of interceptions,
and garbage time adjustments. My metric of choice to solve these issues is ESPN’s model of expected points (the primary component of Total QBR). I prefer ESPN’s version in particular because it attempts to isolate the quarterback’s share of credit for every play; the EPA numbers found at Pro Football Reference and Advanced Football Analytics hold the quarterback fully responsible for his team’s pass plays, which, in my opinion, is not much better thanjust using ANY/A.
In order to compare EPA to ANY/A, I divided pass EPA by dropbacks then converted EPA/A into an index stat using the same formula for ANY/A+. For those not familiar, index stats are scaled so a score of 100 is average and 15 points represents one standard deviation above or below that average. EPA data goes back to 2006 which gives us 439 qualifying seasons to compare. As you would suspect, these two variables are closely correlated (R^2 of 0.74) in the aggregate, but there will be many individual outliers. In the graph below, the X-Axis shows the ANY/A+ for each quarterback, while the Y-Axis shows the EPA/Attempt+ for that quarterback. Tagged as: Adam Steele, ANY/A
, Guest Posts
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LONGEST ACTIVE STREAKS WITHOUT A SACK by Chase Stuart on October 12, 2019in Current Events
Jacoby Brissett
has a
reputation as a guy who will take a lot of sacks. In fact, prior to 2019, he stood out as one of the most extreme examples of aquarterback
who would rather take a sack than throw an interception. But among all starting quarterbacks in the NFL, it’s Brissett who has the longest active streak of pass attempts without a sack. Earlier in the week, we looked at quarterbacks who had gone the longest without throwing an interception.
Per reader Eric Drew’s suggestion,
today we will look at the active streaks for all quarterbacks (through week 5, so excluding the Giants/Patriots TNF game) in terms of pass attempts without taking a sack. As you can see, Brissett has gone 85 pass attempts without a sack. During this stretch, he’s thrown two interceptions, while Deshaun Watsonhas the
longest active streak of pass plays without a sack or an interception:Tagged as: Sacks
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WEEK 5 (2019) GAME SCRIPTS: SEATTLE STICKS TO WHAT DOESN’T WORK by Chase Stuart on October 11, 2019in Checkdowns
Previously:
* Week 1 Game Scripts* Week 2
* Week 3
* Week 4
The Seahawks beat the Rams in week 5 by the smallest of margins, 30-29. Quarterback Russell Wilson was incredible, averaging 14.25 ANY/A against Los Angles on 24 dropbacks. Wilson also had 5 scrambles for 28 yards, two kneel downs, and one designed carry for six yards. The Seahawks also had 35 designed runs for players other than Wilson that picked up 135 yards. That is, to put it bluntly, not the correct ratio. Giving Wilson 30 plays and running the ball 35 times with someone else is pretty silly, but it’s doubly bad in a close game where Wilson is playing like a Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime. Seattle trailed entering the 4th quarter, and while Wilson’s 8 carries make the stats a bit misleading, consider the following: Seattle with 43 rush attempts on 67 plays, a 64% run ratio. That’s the second-highest run ratio of any game in the last 5 years where a team trailed entering the 4th quarter, behind a super run-heavy game by the Colts in the snow in Buffalo in 2017.
Seattle finished with a negative Game Script and ran more than they passed — by a lot — in a game where Wilson was outstanding! By way of reference, consider how the Colts had a super run-heavy game in week 5. Jacoby Brissett had 29 dropbacks and 6 runs (2 scrambles, 2 kneels, 2 designed runs), while Indianapolis runners besides Brissett had 39 rushes for 171 yards! That is a really run-heavy game, but keep in mind two things: Indianapolis had a slightly positive Game Script of +1.8, and Brissett wasn’t all that good, averaging 3.66 ANY/A! The Colts had the second most run-heavy game of the week, and were still less run-heavy than Seattle despite the better Game Script, the better rushing attack, and the much, much, much worse passing attack. The full week 5 Game Scripts, below: Tagged as: Game Scripts{ 0 comments
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LONGEST ACTIVE STREAKS WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION by Chase Stuart on October 10, 2019in Checkdowns
Some fun with play by play data this morning. As you know, PatrickMahomes
,
Russell Wilson
, and
Marcus Mariota
are the
only starting quarterbacks that have not thrown an interception so far this year. Going back to the 2019 regular season and playoffs, Mahomes has now gone 274 passes without throwing an interception, Wilson 201 passes, and Mariota 191 passes. The table below shows how long each quarterback in the NFL has gone without throwing an interception, as of week 5, 2019. I’ve also shown how many sacks that quarterback has taken during this streak, and their sack rate.{ 0 comments
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MARCUS MARIOTA NEEDS TO THROW MORE INTERCEPTIONS by Chase Stuart on October 9, 2019in Checkdowns
Mariota sacks and the leaves changing, a fall tradition like no other.Last December
,
I wrote that Marcus Mariota needs to throw more incomplete passes. At the time, Mariota had thrown just 71 incomplete passes all season,
while also taking 35 sacks. That’s nearly a 2:1 ratio of incomplete passes to sacks! Over the rest of the season, he threw 32 incomplete passes and only took 7 sacks, and the Titans went 4-0. Mariota is a frustrating quarterback to analyze because he seems so afraid of making mistakes. Last year, that manifested itself by taking a sack rather than throwing an incomplete pass. This year, Mariota is taking sacks and not throwing interceptions. Dating back to last season, Mariota has now thrown 191 straight passes without throwing an interception. But during that time, he’s taken 26 sacks, a 12% sackrate.
This season, the Titans have taken a sack on 13.5% of pass plays, the second-worst rate behind the hapless Jets (who have been playing a third string quarterback). Meanwhile, Tennessee is one of just three teams (Seattle, Kansas City) that has yet to throw an interception.
Tennessee has picked up a 1st down on just 28.2% of passing plays this season (46 passing first downs, 141 pass attempts, 22 sacks), which ranks 27th so far in 2019. Avoiding interceptions is great, but that should be the product of good quarterback play and not the primarygoal.
Along with the Jets, the Titans are the only team this season to punt on over half of their drives. Tennessee is the only team this year without a turnover, while all other teams have at least four. But the objective of an offense is to score, and Tennessee is joined by the Redskins and the three stepsisters of the AFC East in the bottom five of the NFL in percentage of drives that end in a score. I don’t know if Mariota is ever going to take the leap and become a top quarterback, and the evidence so far suggests he won’t. But I do know that if he is going to take that leap, it’s going to be because he starts leading touchdown drives, and not because he doesn’t makemistakes.
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WEEK 5 (2019) PASSING STATS: DESHAUN WATSON STARS by Chase Stuart on October 8, 2019in Checkdowns
Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is pretty darn good when he isn’t being sacked. On Sunday against the Falcons, for just the second time in his career, Watson played a game without being sacked. And now both times, he has thrown 5 TDs in those games. He also has a 3-sack, 5 TD game, meaning he’s played more games where he’s thrown 5 TDs than he’s avoided any sacks. Against Atlanta, the Texans punted on their opening drive. After that, Houston scored on its other 8 drives in the game, discarding end of half/game drives. And most of those drives were touchdowns, with all of them covering at least 59 yards. Houston went 10/13 on third down conversions, averaged nearly 9 yards per play, and looked dominant against an overmatched Falcons pass defense. Watson stood out as by far the best passer of week 5, overshadowing strong performances from Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater.
On the other side of things, Luke Falkand Baker Mayfield
turned in two of the sorriest performances you’ll witness this season. Both finished with negative ANY/A, and the Jets and Browns combined for only 11 passing first downs. The full week 5 passing numbers below:Search:
RK
QUARTERBACK
TM
OPP
RESULT
ATT
YDS
TD
INT
SK
YDS
ANY/A
VALUE
1
Deshaun Watson
HOU
ATL
W 53-32
33
426
5
0
0
0
15.94
323
2
Russell Wilson
SEA
LAR
W 30-29
23
268
4
0
1
6
14.25
194
3
Teddy Bridgewater
NOR
TAM
W 31-24
34
314
4
1
0
0
10.26
140
4
Kirk Cousins
MIN
NYG
W 28-10
27
306
2
0
3
27
10.63
134
5
Gardner Minshew
JAX
CAR
L 27-34
44
374
2
0
2
16
8.65
115
6
Jared Goff
LAR
SEA
L 29-30
49
395
1
1
0
0
7.55
68
7
Andy Dalton
CIN
ARI
L 23-26
38
262
2
0
1
0
7.74
62
8
Dak Prescott
DAL
GNB
L 24-34
44
463
2
3
3
22
7.36
57
9
Kyler Murray
ARI
CIN
W 26-23
32
253
0
0
1
5
7.52
45
10
Tom Brady
NWE
WAS
W 33-7
42
348
3
1
4
36
7.11
44
11
Patrick Mahomes
KAN
IND
L 13-19
39
321
1
0
4
33
7.16
43
12
Matt Ryan
ATL
HOU
L 32-53
46
330
3
1
2
14
6.9
35
13
Derek Carr
OAK
CHI
W 24-21
32
229
0
0
0
0
7.16
32
14
Jimmy Garoppolo
SFO
CLE
W 31-3
29
181
2
0
2
10
6.81
20
15
Carson Wentz
PHI
NYJ
W 31-6
29
189
1
0
1
8
6.7
16
16
Odell Beckham
CLE
SFO
L 3-31
1
20
0
0
0
0
20
14
17
Devlin Hodges
PIT
BAL
L 23-26
9
68
0
0
0
0
7.56
13
18
Taysom Hill
NOR
TAM
W 31-24
1
18
0
0
0
0
18
12
19
Mason Rudolph
PIT
BAL
L 23-26
20
131
1
0
1
11
6.67
11
20
Alvin Kamara
NOR
TAM
W 31-24
1
13
0
0
0
0
13
7
21
Jameis Winston
TAM
NOR
L 24-31
27
204
2
0
6
46
6
-5
22
Garrett Gilbert
CLE
SFO
L 3-31
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
-6
22
Christian McCaffrey
CAR
JAX
W 34-27
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
-6
22
Jarrett Stidham
NWE
WAS
W 33-7
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
-6
25
Aaron Rodgers
GNB
DAL
W 34-24
34
238
0
0
2
23
5.97
-7
26
Joe Flacco
DEN
LAC
W 20-13
20
182
1
1
3
23
5.83
-8
27
Marcus Mariota
TEN
BUF
L 7-14
22
183
0
0
5
33
5.56
-16
28
Josh Allen
BUF
TEN
W 14-7
32
219
2
1
4
15
5.53
-23
29
Kyle Allen
CAR
JAX
W 34-27
30
181
1
0
3
21
5.45
-23
30
Jaylen Samuels
PIT
BAL
L 23-26
2
4
0
1
0
0
-20.5
-53
31
Chase Daniel
CHI
OAK
L 21-24
30
231
2
2
4
37
4.24
-65
32
Jacoby Brissett
IND
KAN
W 19-13
29
151
0
1
0
0
3.66
-73
33
Daniel Jones
NYG
MIN
L 10-28
38
182
1
1
4
35
2.9
-137
34
Colt McCoy
WAS
NWE
L 7-33
27
119
0
1
6
44
0.91
-173
35
Philip Rivers
LAC
DEN
L 13-20
48
211
0
2
0
0
2.52
-175
36
Lamar Jackson
BAL
PIT
W 26-23
28
161
1
3
5
22
0.73
-179
37
Baker Mayfield
CLE
SFO
L 3-31
22
100
0
2
4
42
-1.23
-192
38
Luke Falk
NYJ
PHI
L 6-31
26
120
0
2
9
52
-0.63
-237
Total
991
7395
43
24
80
581
6.16
0
As usual, the teams that won the passing battle won the game. But there were three notable outliers in week 5: the Steelers pass defense was great, but Pittsburgh still lost in overtime to Baltimore. Jacksonville won the passing battle against Carolina, but didn’t have Christian McCaffrey.
And the Colts had a run-heavy and very efficient offense against the Chiefs, shutting down Kansas City enough times to steal the win. What stands out to you? Tagged as: Weekly ANY/A{ 0 comments
}
THE JETS OFFENSE IS AVERAGING 3.16 YARDS PER PLAY by Chase Stuart on October 7, 2019in Checkdowns
That’s it. That’s the article. The Jets are averaging 3.16 yards per play this year, which is embarrassing beyond belief. Throug Since 1970, the Jets are just the 8th team to average under 3.2 yards per play of offense through four games, and THE FIRSTSINCE 1978.
The graph below shows the yards per play gained by each NFL offense since 1970. As you can see, the Jets stick out on the bottom right. The X-Axis shows teams by year, and the Y-Axis shows the yards per play gained by that offense.{ 0 comments
}
WASHINGTON REDSKINS, TRAILING 16 GAME HISTORY by Chase Stuart on October 6, 2019in Uncategorized
The Washington Redskins are 0-4, and are 15-point underdogs at home today against the Patriots. It is the largest spread the Redskins have ever faced in a home game, topping a 13-point margin against the 1995 Cowboys. A loss today means Washington will have lost 11 of its last 12 games, as the Redskins finished 2018with a 1-6
mark in the team’s final 7 games once Alex Smithwent
down.
It certainly _feels_ like a low point in franchise history. And over a long enough time horizon, that’s certainly true: since 1993, Washington has the fourth worst record in the NFL,
below even the Cardinals. The graph below shows the team’s trailing 16-game winning percentage over each 16-game period in franchise history. Less than a year ago, Washington had a 9-7 record over its previous 16 games. But that was with Smith, and with a head coach who apparently didn’t want the team’s first round quarterback,
the team seems as directionless now as it has in years. But take note, Redskins fans: it could be worse. As you can see from the graph above, Washington lost 16 straight gamesfrom ’60
to ’61, and went 22 straight games during this stretch without awin.
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THE PATRIOTS AND THE POINT SPREAD UNDER TOM BRADY by Chase Stuart on October 5, 2019in Vegas
Tomorrow, the Patriots will be 15-point favorites to win on the road in Washington. This is the third time in four weeks that New England is favored to win by more than two touchdowns. The Patriots had been favored in 69 consecutive games until the 2018 AFC Championship Game,
but the Patriots have quickly resumed their usual role as favorites. The graph below shows the point spread in every Patriots game since 2001. The games are colored based on whether it was a regular season game, a playoff game, or a game without Tom Brady.
Tagged as: Tom Brady, Vegas
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WHEN WILL A QUARTERBACK START 16 GAMES AND AVOID THROWING AN INTERCEPTION ALL SEASON? by Chase Stuart on October 4, 2019in Checkdowns
Can this man go 12 more games without an interception?Russell Wilson
,
Marcus Mariota
,
and Patrick Mahomes
have yet to throw an interception this season. Wilson has now started five games, with Mariota and Mahomes set to start their fifth games of the season on Sunday. Of the three, Mariota seems the least likely to put together any sort of long streak here. While the Titans quarterback is famous for his ability to take a sack at the first sign of trouble, he entered the 2019 season with a career 2.6% interception rate. More importantly (and related to that fact), most interceptions are thrown when trailing, and Mariota plays on the worst of these three teams. On the other hand, he has now gone 6 straight games without an interception and 169 passes without an interception, while taking 21 sacks during that period. Presumably,
Mariota will at some point soon throw an interception while in catch-up mode, but you never know: against the Jaguars in week 4, Tennessee took over down 13 points with 3:23 remaining,
and were so aggressive that they… got to the Jaguars 37-yard line with 2 seconds remainin. Since the start of the 2015 season, 62% of all interceptions have come when a team was behind on the scoreboard, 14% in tie games, and the remaining 24% by the team in the lead. The easiest way to avoid throwing interceptions is to take a sack; the second-easiest way is to play with the lead. You might have noticed that since the Saints have become good again, Drew Brees has stopped throwing interceptions. Wilson, of course, is therefore in a very good position. He takes a lot of sacks and often plays with the lead, which should help to minimize his chances of throwing an interception. He’s also one of the most accurate passers in the NFL, which helps quite a lot, too. Wilson is completing 73.1% of his passes so far in 2019, and he has a career interception rate under 2.0%. Can he go the next 11 games without throwing an interception? It’s been done before, but onlyonce: Tom Brady
,
during the last 11 games of the 2010 season, is the only quarterback to go 11 straight games without throwing an interception (minimum 10 pass attempts in each game). The next time he took the field, he threw an interception on the first drive of the Patriots playoff game against the Jets, which New England lost. If Brady wasn’t so clutch, that would have looked like he choked in a playoff game. Tagged as: Interceptions{ 0 comments
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WEEK 4 (2019) GAME SCRIPTS: THE EAGLES AND PACKERS BATTLE VERYDIFFERENTLY
by Chase Stuart on October 3, 2019in Checkdowns
Previously:
* Week 1 Game Scripts* Week 2
* Week 3
If you drop back to pass 70 times, it doesn’t matter what the score is: that’s a very pass-heavy game! The Rams had one of the most pass-heavy games of the season on Sunday in a 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay. Los Angeles finished with 70 pass plays versus just 11 runs, an 86.4% pass ratio rarely see in the NFL.
Someone asked: should we hand the ball to Gurley? And it wasn’t all game script. Los Angeles had 7 passes and 1 run (aCooper Kupp
handoff, no less) on the team’s first offensive drive of the game. And on the Rams second drive, with the score only 7-0, Los Angeles had 7 passes and no runs. The Rams seemed to overcorrect on their third drive by running on the first two plays of their third drive, but twoMalcolm Brown
runs
led to a 3rd-and-4 and a Jared Goff interception. This means Todd Gurley didn’t get his first carry of the game until the team’s 18th play from scrimmage and fourth drive of the game.Aaron Rodgers
and the Packers also had a very pass-heavy game plan in week four. This was a perfectly even game: it was a back-and-forth contest where Green Bay finished with a -0.1 Game Script. Running back Aaron Jonesrushed
13 times for only 21 yards, while Rodgers had 53 pass attempts, 1 sack, and 5 scrambles (with zero designed runs). That means the Packers called 59 pass plays and just 15 rushes, although Game Scripts data currently considers scrambles as rushing plays. That’s remarkably pass-heavy for an even game.Finally, Joe Flacco
and the Broncos stood out as pass-happy, too. Denver lost, but led the most of the game and finished with a +4.9 Game Script. Flacco played pretty well, taking no sacks and throwing for 15 first downs and 303 yards on 38 attempts. Perhaps this was a response to my article about how Denver was over-the-top run-heavyin week 3?
The full week 4 Game Script data below: Tagged as: Game Scripts{ 0 comments
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1962 IN REVIEW: THE RECORD-SETTING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SEASON by Chase Stuart on October 2, 2019in History ,
Passing
There were 14 NFL teams back in 1962, and the starting quarterbacks for 11 of them averaged more yards per pass attempt than the starting quarterbacks for those same teams did in 2018. We learned that in PartI of this series
.
Today, in Part II, we will look at the evolution of passing efficiency in the NFL since 1940. In 1962, the league as a whole averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt. That’s a _remarkable_ figure. So remarkable that it remains the record and is unlikely to be broken anytime soon. The graph below shows the NFL yards per attempt average in each season from 1940 to2018.
It
doesn’t take a long examination to see that the 1962 season is a significant outlier. So what caused this? It helps to begin by breaking down yards per attempt into two components: Completions per Attempt and Yards per Completion; the product of these two statistics is, of course, yards per attempt. Over the last 80 years, completion percentages have been rising. This is well known, but less discussed is that the average gain on those completed passes — the statistic known as yards per completion — has been steadily falling. The graph below shows the NFL average COMPLETION PERCENTAGE IN BLUE and marked against the LEFT Y-AXIS, and NFL YARDS PER COMPLETION AVERAGE IN ORANGE marked against the RIGHT Y-AXIS, for each year from 1940 to 2018. The graph forms a jagged X: YARDS PER COMPLETION starts up and to the left and ends down and to the right, with COMPLETION PERCENTAGE beginning in the lower left quadrant and ending on the upper right quadrant.To
make it easier for you to see, I shaded the 1962 season in black dots on both lines. There was a large jump in completion percentage in 1962 — in fact, ’62 set the new record for completion percentage in a season at 53%, and that mark wasn’t broken until 1979! On the other hand, this wasn’t shocking for the era: after all, 1961 also set a new record for completion percentage. The 53% rate was notably high and a bit of an outlier, but part of a (still) growing trend towards higher completion percentages year over year. On the other hand, the 1962 season also represented a reversal of the trend in terms of yards per completion. Teams gained 14.74 yards per completed pass, the 4th-highest since 1940 both at the time and since. And the three higher seasons all had come well over a decade earlier, so this was a true change in the tides. Not only were teams completing more passes than ever, but they were doing so at a rate similar to what happened prior to 1950. Of course, simple math tells us that if you have an extraordinarily high (for that era) completion percentage combined with an extraordinarily high yards per completion average, that you will wind up with a record-setting yards per attempt average. And that’s exactly what happened. The early 1960s were somewhat of an inflection point in this regard: the top three yards per attempt seasons in NFL history were in 1961, 1962, and 1963! And the 4th-best mark came in 1965. In the early part of the ’60s, while the AFL was earning a reputation for being a pass-happy league, the NFL was quietly enjoying its most pass efficient seasons in history. And to be clear, all data in this post is NFL-only. But even among this era of rising completion percentages and still-high YPC averages, the ’62 season stands alone. If 1962 didn’t exist, we’d talk about how 1961 and 1963 were remarkably high yards/attempt seasons, but 1962 easily eclipses both of those marks. Finally, here is the data from every year since 1940, presented intable form.
So what caused all of this? Stay tuned for Part III. Tagged as: 1962 Season{ 0 comments
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WEEK 4 (2019) PASSING STATS: NFL OFFENSES STRUGGLE by Chase Stuart on October 1, 2019in Checkdowns
It was a rough week for a lot of passers in week 4: there were just 39 touchdown passes by the 30 teams, and the league averaged only 5.82 ANY/A. There were a pair of 16-10 victories (NE/BUF, CAR/HOU) where all quarterbacks played poorly, a 16-6 victory that was pretty ugly (CHI/MIN), and a 12-10 matchup on Sunday Night (NO/DAL) that was equally hard to watch. NFL teams have gotten very conservative in the passing game, and I’d suggest that they are far too conservative. Kirk Cousins did not throw an interception, but that’s because he showed no sign of aggressiveness. Take a look at his passing chart,
and keep in mind that this does not show the six times he took a sack: Tagged as: Weekly ANY/A{ 0 comments
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FRANK GORE IS REMARKABLE by Chase Stuart on September 30, 2019in Rushing
In 1977, the Kansas City Chiefs went 2-10. This was
during one of the worst passing seasons in NFL history, the season that encouraged the 1978 rules changes.
Quarterback Mike Livingstonwent
1-10 as the starter and he was about as bad as his record. Kansas City brought him back as the team’s starter in 1978, but changed coaches, bringing in Marv Levy. The
future Bills coach inherited a terrible team in Kansas City that was particularly inexperienced on defense: all three starters on the defensive line were rookies, as was one of the linebackers; two other starters were ’77 draft picks, and another two starters were 24-year old players drafted in 1976. That’s 8 of 11 starters on defense that were 24 or younger, to go with a a bad passing attack centered around Livingston, and WRs Henry Marshalland
Larry Dorsey
.
So what did Levy do? He decided to install the Wing-T offense , centered around three halfbacks, a tight end, and Marshall at split end. Kansas City hadTony Reed
as the starting halfback, Arnold Morgando as the fullback, and TedMcKnight
as the Wingback
as part of a ball-controlled offense designed to keep the young defense (and weak passing game) off the field. But on October 1st, 1978, it was veteran backup Macarthur Lane — with the emphasis on _veteran_ — that powered the offense. Lane rushed 17 times for 144 yards in a game where Livingston and backup Tony Adams combined to complete 9 of 21 passes for just 83 yards. So why is this noteworthy today? Well, on October 1st, Lane was 36 years and 199 days old. Playing in that Wing-T offense, he became the oldest player to ever rush for 100 yards in a game. And yesterday,Frank Gore
nearly matched him. The ageless Gore rushed 17 times for 109 yards in a Bills loss to the Patriots. He wasn’t aided by a Wing-T offense, but the 36 year, 138-day old back did his best to keep the Bills alive on a day where the passing attack was a disaster (averaging 1.22 ANY/A). And historians, take note: Gore will be 36 years and over 200 days old for the Bills four games in December, making him eligible to set the new record for the oldest player to rush for 100 yards in a game. Tagged as: Frank Gore{ 0 comments
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ARIZONA’S PASSING ATTACK WITH KYLER MURRAY IS STRUGGLING TO GETFIRST DOWNS
by Chase Stuart on September 29, 2019in Data Dump
Murray has been sacked 16 times in 3 games. Arizona rookie Kyler Murrayhas
some pretty strong counting stats so far this year: he’s averaging 276 passing yards per game, which would lead him to breaking the mark for passing yards by a rookie if he keeps this up for 16 games. He “only” has three interceptions, and he is completing a whopping 28 passes per game:only Drew Brees
(5x), Peyton Manning (2x), and Ben Roethlisberger (2018) have ever done that in a season while playing in at least 8games.
But Murray’s efficiency numbers have been, well, bad. He’s averaging just 4.42 ANY/A this year,
thanks to an awful sack rate (10.5%) and a poor yards per completion average (9.9). But we don’t need an advanced stat like ANY/A to see Murray’s struggles: the most basic of stats will suffice. Murray has thrown for only 37 first downs so far this year, despite having 153 passing plays (pass attempts plus sacks). That is an ugly 24.2% rate, while the league average is 32.6%. First down rate is one of the most basic stats to measure passing success, but it’s much better than completion percentage and is a handy way to quickly and easily check in on quarterback performance. The table below shows the passing stats for quarterbacks prior to today: Tagged as: First Downs{ 0 comments
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INTERCEPTIONS BY WIN PROBABILITY, PART 2 by Chase Stuart on September 28, 2019in Checkdowns
Mayfield is having a tough start to the year, but don’t point to his interception against Tennessee as a reason why.Last year
,
I wrote about how not all interceptions are created equally, and that there is a large diversity in the impact of interceptions. There have been a lot of meaningless interceptions this season already. Baker Mayfield threw an interception down by 23 points with 3 minutes remaining atthe Cleveland 20
.
That interception dropped the Browns chances of winning from zero to zero. Trailing by 42 points, Josh Rosen opened the 4th quarter of the opening game loss to the Ravensby
throwing a meaningless interception. The next week, Miami’s RyanFitzpatrick
threw two 4th quarter interceptions in a blowout loss to the Patriots:
yeah, maybe all Dolphins interceptions are meaningless, but these three were *really* meaningless. And the most meaningless (is that a thing?) one yet? Rosen threw an interception on the final play of thatPatriots game, too.
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IS GARDNER MINSHEW ALREADY THE BEST MIKE LEACH QUARTERBACK IN THE NFL? by Chase Stuart on September 27, 2019in Coaches
Mike Leach
has
been at the front of the passing revolution in football circles for three decades. He worked with Hal Mummeat
Iowa Wesleyan in 1989, and that’s where the two began creating theAir Raid offense
.
Together they moved on to Valdosta State in Georgia, and then up to major college football when they moved to Kentucky in 1997. There, Leach mentored a future number one overall draft pick; two years later, he moved to Oklahoma and helped the Sooners win a national title before embarking on a decade-long stint in Lubbock as head coach of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. And since 2012, Leach has been the head coach at Washington State. The table below shows all of Leach’s starting quarterbacks during his time in major college football: Tagged as: Mike Leach{ 0 comments
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WEEK 3 (2019) GAME SCRIPTS: THE PATRIOTS ARE DOMINATING OPPONENTS by Chase Stuart on September 26, 2019in Checkdowns
Previously:
* Week 1 Game Scripts* Week 2
New England is at it again, rolling through the NFL in dominant fashion. For the third time in three games, the Patriots had a Game Script of over +14.0. The Patriots have outscored teams by 53 points at halftime and 73 points through three quarters;
both are the best marks in the league. Here’s your money stat of the week: NEW ENGLAND OPPONENTS HAVE RUN 169 PLAYS THIS YEAR, AND 120 OF THEM (71%) HAVE COME WITH THE PATRIOTS LEADING BY MORE THAN TWOTOUCHDOWNS.
From a Game Scripts perspective, the most interesting thing about week 3 might have been that Tom Brady was still really pass-happy. The Patriots joined the rare 10/15/20/45 club: leading by at least 10, 15, and 20 points after the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters, respectively, and throwing 45+ times in the game.
The last time it happened was so unusual I wrote about it in thiscolumn
then, too.
The other team that was really pass-heavy was Philip Rivers and the Chargers. In a game where Los Angeles had a +2.4 Game Script, you’d expect a pretty average pass ratio. Instead, L.A. passed on 74% of plays, the most of all 32 teams in week 3. It is unusual that the team with the highest pass ratio in a week had a positive Game Script, but it’s hard to fault a team like the Chargers for passing a lot. Also worth noting: the two Chargers running backs, Austin Ekelerand Justin Jackson
,
caught 11 of 11 targets for 51 yards (and 3 first downs), which … well, I’m not quite sure what to think about that. Tagged as: Game Scripts{ 0 comments
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COACHING TIPS: DON’T MISS OUT ON A FREE PASS PLAY by Chase Stuart on September 25, 2019in Coaches
In 2012
,
the New Orleans Saints led the Cowboys, 31-24, with 2:46 remaining and Dallas holding just two timeouts. Drew Brees completed a pass to Jimmy Graham for the first down, and the Saints looked to be in great shape. New Orleans still had to run another play before the 2 minute warning, however, and with 2:04 remaining, the Saints ran Mark Ingramoff
left tackle. He lost a yard and the two minute warning stopped the clock. New Orleans ran again on second down, and the Cowboys called their second timeout. On third and long, Brees completed a pass short of the sticks, and the Cowboys called their final timeout. After a punt, the Cowboys took over with 1:29 remaining and no timeouts, and needing 64 yards for a touchdown. That was all TonyRomo
,
always known for his great 4th quarter passing numbers, needed to tie the game: with 21 seconds remaining, he threw a game-tying touchdown pass, and the two teams went to overtime. Why am I bringing that up today? Because the Saints should have passed the ball with 2:04 remaining! When you are that close to the two minute warning, coaches should view that as a free opportunity to pass the ball and pick up a first down. This happened again onSunday
in
an even more egregious situation. The Ravens scored a touchdown with 2:01 remaining to cut the lead to 33-28. Baltimore then brilliantly chose to do a drop kick onside kick;
the Chiefs correctly responded with a fair catch, but that meant no time went off the clock. So now Kansas City had the ball, with 2:01 remaining, and Baltimore down to just one timeout. The Chiefs, I remind you, have PatrickMahomes
.
There was no downside to passing here other than an interception, and well, that’s not something Mahomes is very likely to do. This is an obvious passing situation, and I said so immediately when thesituation arose:
> If you're the Chiefs, and you get the ball with 2:01 left, you > should pass on first down. The clock is stopping anyway.>
> — Football Perspective (@fbgchase) September 22, 2019>
Alas, the Chiefs chose to run the ball twice, and then were forced to pass on 3rd and 9 (which, of course, Mahomes converted because well, he’s Mahomes). But that outcome doesn’t change the bad process.{ 0 comments
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WEEK 3 (2019) PASSING STATS: KYLER MURRAY HITS ROCK BOTTOM by Chase Stuart on September 24, 2019in Passing
If you took a quick glance at the passing stats from week 3, you might not notice how bad number one overall pick Kyler Murray performed against the Panthers. You’d see that he threw for only 173 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs, and might think that it was a typical underwhelming performance by a rookie quarterback. What you might not have noticed was that Murray had 43 pass attempts and also was sacked a whopping 8 times, losing 46 yards. He also only passed for 9 first downs, a pitiful number given his 51 passing plays (17.6%). Murray threw for just 127 net passing yards against Carolina, a shockingly-low 2.49 net yards per attempt average. In fact, nopasser had averaged
under 2.50 NY/A in a game with 40+ attempts since 2003. Murray finished week 3 with a 1.51 ANY/A average, the second-worst performance in week 3 by any starting quarterback. The worst? Well, that honor belongs to Jets third string QB Luke Falk, who
was basically useless against the Patriots. Falk had 27 passing plays on Sunday: 20 of them produced negative EPA,
meaning they were a negative play, 3 were slightly positive plays (i.e., a 5-yard pass on 1st-and-10), and 4 picked up first downs. New York scored 14 points courtesy of a special teams touchdown and a defensive touchdown. On the positive side of things, the top three passing stat lines belonged to Patrick Mahomes,
Deshaun Watson
, and
Kyle Allen
. The
full week 3 passing stats below: Tagged as: Weekly ANY/A{ 0 comments
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ADVANCED STATS PAGES NOW ON PRO-FOOTBALL-REFERENCE.COM by Chase Stuart on September 23, 2019in Checkdowns
You may have noticed that PFR has been making some additions to their fantastic website, including by adding some advanced statistics pages.
For example, regular readers may recall Adam’s post this offseasonabout Nick Mullens
and how much he benefited from yards after the catch.
> In the cases of Beathard and Mullens, it’s no coincidence that > both played for the same team. Kyle Shanahan’s> scheme
> was able to exploit defenses and create gaping holes in the zone for > his receivers to pick up huge chunks of yardage. This created long > gains that boosted the stat sheet for his quarterbacks but only > required simple throws that nearly every professional passer could> make.
Well, now you can check for yourself at PFR: this page shows advanced passing stats from 2018; as it turns out, Mullens averaged 6.9 yards of “YAC” — yards after the catch — on his completions last season, the highest rate in the NFL. And while they didn’t throw enough passes to qualify, 49ers quarterbacks C.J.Beathard
(7.1 YAC/C) and Jimmy Garoppolo(6.9)
also had crazy-high YAC numbers. This season? With Garoppolo back as the San Francisco starter, his receivers are averaging an NFL-best 9.8 yards after the catch.
This page is a great resource, and also can help you uncover some surprises. For example, I expected the marriage between head coach Bruce Ariansand
quarterback Jameis Winston to lead to a lot of big plays down the field. Winston averaged 8.5 air yards per attempt last season,
2nd-highest in the NFL behind his Bucs teammate Ryan Fitzpatrick. But
Winston also ranked last in yards gained after the catch per completion, at 3.7, a residue of Tampa Bay’s downfield style. Arians was known for constructive a similar offense, but so far this year, Winston is one of five passers averaging over 9 yards of YAC per completion. Is that sustainable over 16 games? We have no way of knowing, but it will be interesting to monitor. And thanks to PFR’s new advanced stats pages, we can. For fun, I graphed the passers in 2018 and 2019 by their YAC per completion, with 2018 data on the X-Axis and 2019 data on the Y-Axis. Jimmy G and Pat Mahomesare in
the upper right, with high YAC numbers in both ’18 and ’19. But Winston is on the upper left, with high YAC in ’19 but low YAC in’18.
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THREE DIFFERENT STARTING QBS IN A TEAM’S FIRST THREE GAMES by Chase Stuart on September 22, 2019in Checkdowns
Luke Falk, who came on in relief for the Jets in week 2. The Jets started Sam Darnold in week 1 at quarterback, but due to mono, New York was forced to start Trevor Siemian in week two. But in Siemian’s first start, he injured his ankle and was lost for the season. Now, the Jets turn to Luke Falk today to be the team’s third starting quarterback in just threeweeks.
How rare is that? Excluding the 1987 season which featured replacement players during week three, the Jets will be just the 6th team since 1950 to start three different quarterbacks in the team’s openingthree games.
In 2016, as the Browns embarked on an 0-16 season, Cleveland
started Robert Griffinin week
1, Josh McCown
in week
2, and Cody Kessler
in week
3. Both changes were the result of injury, with Griffin suffering a broken bone in his shoulder and McCown breaking his collarbone. In 2008, the soon to be 2-14 Chiefswent with
Brodie Croyle
at
quarterback to open the season, Damon Huard, and
finally Tyler Thigpenin week
3. Croyle suffered a shoulder injury in week one, while Huard had a neck/head injury in week two, leading to Thigpen’s promotion to starting quarterback. In 1997, the Jaguars had a rough start to the year beginning in the preseason. Starting quarterback Mark Brunell suffered a knee injury during the preseason which sidelined him for a few weeks. As a result, Rob Johnsonwound
up starting week 1, but suffered a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss the following week. Steve Matthewswould
start for the team in week 2, and following a week 3 bye, Brunell returned as the starter in week 4. Jacksonville won all three games and went 11-5 that season.
In 1988, Bernie Kosarstarted
for the Browns in week 1, but injured his elbow and was replaced byGary Danielson
. In
week 2, Danielson started but played poorly in the last game of his NFL career; he was replaced by Mike Pagel, who
would start in week 3. Cleveland would finish the season 10-6, with
Kosar starting nine games. Finally, in 1976, the Rams started three different quarterbacks. Starter James Harrisinjured
his thumb in the preseason, leading Ron Jaworskito open
the season as the starter. But Jaws was injured in week 1, leading PatHaden
to start in week 2 for Los Angeles. By the third game, Harris was back, and the Rams would finish the year 10-3-1.
And that’s it. The Jets are now the 6th team to have to start three different quarterbacks to open the season, and none of the first five teams had to start four different quarterbacks in its first fourgames.
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LARGEST POINT SPREADS IN FRANCHISE HISTORY by Chase Stuart on September 21, 2019in Vegas
Did you know: Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland have never been 14-point favorites in any game since 1978? In December 1995, facing the expansion Jaguars quarterbacked by backup Steve Beuerlein, the
Lions were 13-point favorites. That is the largest points spread the team has had since ’78, and the playoff-bound Lions won 44-0. In 2005, in a game against the Katrina Saints with backup Todd Bouman, the
Bucs were 13-point favorites. This was the last game of the regular season, and the host Bucs scored a late defensive touchdown to cover, 27-13. Tampa Bay would finish the year 11-5. And finally, we have the Browns. In 1995, against those same expansion Jaguars, the old Browns were 13.5 point favorites coming off of a bye. But for the first time, a Bill Belichick-led
favorite was shocked by a Tom Coughlin-led
underdog, as the Jaguars won 23-15. From a points spread perspective, this was actually a bigger upset than the 2007 Super Bowl!
The largest points spread for the new Browns came in the final game of the 2007 season, where Cleveland beat San Francisco 20-7 as 11.5-pointfavorites
.
The table below shows the largest points spread for each team in agame since 1978.
Tagged as: Vegas
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LUKE FALK, THE PATRIOTS, AND SCOTT ZOLAK by Chase Stuart on September 20, 2019in Vegas
Luke Falk, who came on in relief for the Jets in week 2. On Sunday, the Jets will be a sacrificial lamb for the enjoyment of 70,000 fans in Foxboro. New York is a 23-point underdog to the Patriots, making this one of the largest point spreads in NFL history. The Jets have lost 12 straight regular season games in Gilette Stadium to the Tom Brady Patriots, with the last victory coming back in 2006 (during this span, the Jets beat New England once without Brady, in ’08, and also inthe 2010 playoffs).
Remarkably, New York was an underdog of over 2 TDs in each of the team’s last three games in New England, and a 3-TD underdog against the ’07 Patriots. And yet it is Sunday’s matchup that brings the largest points spread in Jets history. The table
below shows the points spread in each Jets game in Foxboro during Brady’s time with the team prior to 2019 (as for 2001, that is not included; the Jets game in Foxboro that year was the origin story forBrady).
VEGAS
VEGAS
VEGAS
VEGAS
TM
YEAR
DATE
OPP
WEEK
G#
DAY
RESULT
SPREAD
VS. LINE
OVER/UNDER
OU RESULT
NYJ
2018
2018-12-30
@
NWE
17
16
Sun
L 3-38
14.5
not covered
46.5
under
NYJ
2017
2017-12-31
@
NWE
17
16
Sun
L 6-26
17.0
not covered
43.5
under
NYJ
2016
2016-12-24
@
NWE
16
15
Sat
L 3-41
17.0
not covered
45.0
under
NYJ
2015
2015-10-25
@
NWE
7
6
Sun
L 23-30
7.5
covered
47.5
over
NYJ
2014
2014-10-16
@
NWE
7
7
Thu
L 25-27
9.5
covered
44.5
over
NYJ
2013
2013-09-12
@
NWE
2
2
Thu
L 10-13
11.5
covered
43.0
under
NYJ
2012
2012-10-21
@
NWE
7
7
Sun
L 26-29
10.5
covered
47.0
over
NYJ
2011
2011-10-09
@
NWE
5
5
Sun
L 21-30
7.5
not covered
50.0
over
NYJ
2010
2011-01-16
@
NWE
19
18
Sun
W 28-21
9.5
covered
45.0
over
NYJ
2010
2010-12-06
@
NWE
13
12
Mon
L 3-45
4.0
not covered
44.5
over
NYJ
2009
2009-11-22
@
NWE
11
10
Sun
L 14-31
11.0
not covered
45.0
push
NYJ
2007
2007-12-16
@
NWE
15
14
Sun
L 10-20
20.5
covered
41.0
under
NYJ
2006
2007-01-07
@
NWE
18
17
Sun
L 16-37
9.0
not covered
38.5
over
NYJ
2006
2006-11-12
@
NWE
10
9
Sun
W 17-14
10.5
covered
38.0
under
NYJ
2005
2005-12-04
@
NWE
13
12
Sun
L 3-16
7.5
not covered
42.5
under
NYJ
2004
2004-10-24
@
NWE
7
6
Sun
L 7-13
6.0
push
43.5
under
NYJ
2003
2003-09-21
@
NWE
3
3
Sun
L 16-23
6.0
not covered
38.0
over
NYJ
2002
2002-12-22
@
NWE
16
15
Sun
W 30-17
3.5
covered
41.0
over
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com:
View Original Table
But the most shocking thing to me isn’t that the Jets are heavy underdogs, but that the over/under for the game is just 43 points! This means that Vegas is setting the Over/Under on the Jets points total at 10 points, and the Patriots total at 33 points. I mean, I know the Jets are down to third-string quarterback Luke Falk, but a
10-point total for one team is really, really low. Since 1978, there have only been 45 times where a team, based on the Vegas point spread and over/under, was projected to score under 11 points. The Jets against the Patriots will be the 46th, but New England has not always been on the positive side of things. Before there were Patriots fans, the team once traveled to Arrowhead Stadiumin 1992
to
face the mighty Chiefs. Kansas City, with Neil Smith,
Derrick Thomas
, and
Dale Carter
, had a
pretty good defense in those days, but the real issue was the Patriots offense. Quarterbacked by Scott Zolak, the
2-11 Patriots had been shut out in backto
back
games entering the trip to Kansas City and had gained _a total of 199yards of offense_.
So on December 13th, 1992, on a cold and rainy day,
the Chiefs were favored to win by 16.5 points, and the over/under was 33 points. That means New England was expected to score only 8.25 points, with Kansas City projected to score 24.75 points. Kansas City ultimately won, 27-20, with the Patriots scoring touchdowns once on defense and once after a turnover gaave the team the ball at the8-yard line.
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WEEK 2 (2019) GAME SCRIPTS: ARE THE LIONS BECOMING A RUNNING TEAM? by Chase Stuart on September 19, 2019in Checkdowns
Previously:
* Week 1 Game Scripts In week 2, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Atlanta — with three high-profile quarterbacks — all went pass-happy. Arizona and Carolina — who also sport a pair of number one overall picks at quarterback, did the same. Cleveland dominated the Jets in a game that wasn’t really ever in doubt, and yet Baker Mayfield still wound up throwing on nearly two-thirds of all plays. In Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes was tasked to throw on over two-thirds of Chiefs plays, but hey –he’s Mahomes
!
The Falcons have Matt Ryan,
and while he was inconsistent against the Eagles, Devonta Freeman rushed for just 22 yards on 11 carries. As a result, Atlanta threw on over 70% of its plays in a competitive game against Philadelphia, the highest pass ratio of any winning team in week two. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray had 43 dropbacks and 3 rushing attempts against the Ravens, while RBDavid Johnson
had
just 7 carries. Arizona was trailing most of the way (-6.4 Game Script), but an 80% pass ratio is always going to stand out as pass-heavy. Arizona and Kliff Kingsburyhad a
similar Game Script in week 1 and threw on 72% of plays: it appears Arizona will not be easing into things for the number one overall pick. Finally, we have Carolina and Cam Newton, who
is likely to miss week 3 with a lingering foot injury. Newton was obviously not at 100% in week 2 — he tied a career low with just 2 carries, and they gained 0 yards — and yet he tied a career high with 54 dropbacks! Christian McCaffrey (16 for 37) was not particularly effective on the ground, but this was a competitive game throughout. Normally, we suggest passing frequently in close games, but with an injured Newton, it’s fair to wonder if that was the right strategy. The full week 2 Game Scripts below: Tagged as: Game Scripts{ 0 comments
}
ELI MANNING RANKS IN THE TOP 10 ALL-TIME IN PASSING YARDS AND TDS by Chase Stuart on September 18, 2019in Checkdowns
, HOF
, Quarterbacks
Can you spot the HOF QB?Eli Manning
has been benched by the Giants, which means he may have taken his last NFL snap. As of today, he ranks 7th all-time in passing yards and 8th all-time in passing touchdowns. Manning also ranks 6th all-time in pass attempts, and his career is one of the more unusual ones in NFL history. And that’s because when a quarterback stays with one team for so long, it usually means he was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Today I want to compare how Eli Manning has fared, statistically, to the rest of the NFL. Manning was the first pick in the 2004 Draft, and so I looked at all passing stats in the NFL from 2004 through week 2of the 2019 season.
Tagged as: Eli Manning, HOF
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WEEK 2 (2019) PASSING STATS: PATRICK MAHOMES BEGINS HIS REELECTIONCAMPAIGN
by Chase Stuart on September 17, 2019in Checkdowns
In week 1
,
the passing stats were once again remarkable: the league averaged 7.08 ANY/A and produced a passer rating of 100.2. In week 2, though, things dipped down quite a bit to 5.96 ANY/A and a passer rating of 87.6. There are injuries to be discussed. Sam Darnoldis out
with mono and didn’t play last night. Nick Folesbroke
his left clavicle early in week one and is out indefinitely. In week two, two Hall of Fame quarterbacks went down: Ben Roethlisbergeris out
for the season with an injured right elbow, and Drew Breesis out
for two months torn ligament in the thumb on his throwing hand. There are also the Dolphins to be discussed. Ryan Fitzpatrickand
Josh Rosen
combined to be terrible: 7 passing first downs, 4 interceptions, and 7 sacks. And Eli Manning, Carson
Wentz ,
and Derek Carr
all had
ugly weeks, too.
What _did_ help week 2? The reigning MVP of the NFL, Patrick Mahomes. The
best player in football put together a 2nd quarter for the ages on Sunday against the Raiders. Mahomes completed 12 of 17 passes, for a remarkable 278 yards (23.2 yards per completion) and 4 touchdowns, with no interceptions or sacks and *ten* first downs. Jimmy Garoppoloand his
former mentor Tom Bradyboth
had great weeks, but there’s no question who was the best quarterback in week two. The table below shows the full passing stats: Tagged as: Weekly ANY/A{ 0 comments
}
KLIFF KINGSBURY KICKS, KICKS, AND KICKS AGAIN by Chase Stuart on September 16, 2019in Theory
Kliff Kingsbury, flirting with the apple of his eye Week 2 of the 2019 NFL season. With 2 minutes left in the first quarter, trailing 7-0, Arizona faced a 3rd-and-1 from the Ravens 4-yard line. Kyler Murraythrew
an incomplete pass, setting up a 4th-and-1 from the same distance. This is an obvious situation to go for it, particularly when you are a 13-point underdog. Only contortionists can concoct 4th-and-1 situations where going for it is a bad idea, and nobody can sustain that argument from the opponent’s 4-yard line in the first quarter. And yet, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsburysent out
Zane Gonzalez
to
kick a short field goal, cutting the lead to 7-3. After the next Baltimore drive resulted in a field goal, Arizona again drove down the field. The Cardinals reached 3rd-and-goal from the 3-yard line, when Murray threw an incomplete pass. That set up 4th-and-goal from the 3, trailing 10-3 midway through the 2nd quarter. This was another obvious go-for-it situation, but once again, Kingsbury sent Gonzalez out to get three points. Over the last 10 years, NFL offenses have scored touchdowns on about 41% of 3rd (or 4th) and goal plays from the 3-yard line.
And as we’ll see in a minute, a 41% success rate is far above the necessary rate to make going for it the correct decision. On Arizona’s first drive of the second half, trailing 17-6, Arizona once again drove inside Baltimore’s 10-yard line. On 2nd-and-goal from the 5, Murray threw to Larry Fitzgerald.
Incomplete. On 3rd-and-goal from the 5, Murray again failed to connect with Fitzgerald. Facing 4th-and-goal from the 5, the Cardinals again sent out Gonzalez for a third chip shot. The Ravens defense was then called for a delay of game, moving Arizona up to the 2-yard line. From there, Kingsbury — trailing by 11 in the 2nd half — kept Gonzalez on the field! In perhaps the most indefensible move of the day, Kingsbury chose to kick a field goal. Over the last 5 years, teams have converted half of these 3rd (or 4th) and goal plays from the 2into touchdowns
.
Tagged as: 4th down
, Kliff Kingsbury
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FIRST NFL STARTS BY BACKUP QUARTERBACKS AND THE POINT SPREAD by Chase Stuart on September 15, 2019in Vegas
Minshew and Leach at Washington State Jaguars rookie Gardner Minshewis
making his first NFL start today, as Jacksonville starting quarterbackNick Foles
is out
with a broken left calvicle. Minshew replaced Foles in week 1 and promptly had one of the best passing performances any player has ever had in his first NFL game,
at least if you don’t adjust for era. He completed 22 of 25 passes for 275 yards and 2 TDs with one interception, far exceeding how you would expect a rookie 6th round pick would perform in a season opener. You might think this would mean Vegas would have high hopes for Minshew, who starred at Washington Stateunder Mike Leach
.
Together with Minshew and his mustache,
he “led the Cougars to 10 wins for the sixth time in programhistory.”
You might think that this would mean Vegas would be buying on Minshew today against Houston, but that’s not the case: the Jaguars are 8-point underdogs in Houston. Jason Lisk recently wrote about Minshew in the context of the point spread in games started by non-first round backup quarterbacks. That made me wonder: what would cause a team starting a “player like Minshew” to be favored? I looked at all quarterbacks since 1978 who:Tagged as: Vegas
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He tried following your advice and got benched for it.Your such a douce.
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