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CAIXABANK RESEARCH
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumptionwere
MONTHLY REPORT
Monthly analysis of the economic outlook for Spain, Portugal, and the world, as well as the developments in the financial markets. It includes specialised articles on the hot topics and the trends which are expected to determine the economic agenda in the short and mediumterm. Available in
EVERYTHING YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT THE EUROPEAN The Recovery Plan must still be approved by the European and national parliaments. The main element is the Recovery and Resilience Facility, which will provide up to 312.5 billion euros in grants and 360 billion in loans to Member States according to their size and the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. To access these funds, each country must GERMANY: A CHANGE IN DIRECTION FOR FISCAL POLICY Germany has managed to form a coalition government between conservatives and social democrats, known as the GroKo III as it is the country’s third Große Koalition, six months after September’s general elections.Agreeing on a coalition has been a complicated process and both parties have had to give up part of their programme. HOW DOES TELEWORKING AFFECT SOCIETY AND OUR WAY OF LIFE? The coronavirus outbreak has made remote work popular and fuelled debate regarding its impact on society and our way of life. However, the concept of working from home is not new; in fact, it was the norm for a large number of workers until well into the 19th century. HOW DOES INEQUALITY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? The relationship between economic growth and inequality has been studied by economists for more than a century. Nonetheless, this issue is still far from resolved and, as explained in this article, the answer to the question of how unequal household income affects a country’s growth is still not clear, both from a theoretical and also empirical perspective. THE SHARING ECONOMY AND TOURISM In this article, we analyse the impact that the sharing economy is having on the tourism market. The popularisation of the sharing economy is changing the way in which some tourism services are provided and has generated new ways of travelling (see figure). However, platforms’ level of penetration in the tourism market varies across subsectors. INEQUALITY AND POPULISM: MYTHS AND TRUTHS Inequality and populism: myths and truths. In recent times, much ink has spilled over the relationship between economic inequality and the rise in populism in advanced countries. In many cases this relationship has been taken as read, as if it were an undeniable fact that economic inequality is the main reason for the emergence ofpopulist parties.
BITCOIN: SPECULATIVE BUBBLE OR CURRENCY OF THE FUTURE? The price of these pizzas at the current bitcoin value would be close to 5.5 million dollars. The bitcoin's value basically reflects speculation on its future value. As with all fiduciary currencies, i.e. currencies not backed by precious metals, the bitcoin will have long-term value as long as it is commonly accepted as a medium ofexchange
EUROPE VS. US STOCK MARKET: MIND THE GAP But even when dividends are not included, Europe still comes off worse in the comparison because it distributes a larger percentage of profits (61.1% compared with 41% in the US) and the dividend yield is higher (3.7% compared with 2.0%). Underlying economic fundamentals are probably the main factor behind this gap between the two stock marketsCAIXABANK RESEARCH
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumptionwere
MONTHLY REPORT
Monthly analysis of the economic outlook for Spain, Portugal, and the world, as well as the developments in the financial markets. It includes specialised articles on the hot topics and the trends which are expected to determine the economic agenda in the short and mediumterm. Available in
EVERYTHING YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT THE EUROPEAN The Recovery Plan must still be approved by the European and national parliaments. The main element is the Recovery and Resilience Facility, which will provide up to 312.5 billion euros in grants and 360 billion in loans to Member States according to their size and the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. To access these funds, each country must GERMANY: A CHANGE IN DIRECTION FOR FISCAL POLICY Germany has managed to form a coalition government between conservatives and social democrats, known as the GroKo III as it is the country’s third Große Koalition, six months after September’s general elections.Agreeing on a coalition has been a complicated process and both parties have had to give up part of their programme. HOW DOES TELEWORKING AFFECT SOCIETY AND OUR WAY OF LIFE? The coronavirus outbreak has made remote work popular and fuelled debate regarding its impact on society and our way of life. However, the concept of working from home is not new; in fact, it was the norm for a large number of workers until well into the 19th century. HOW DOES INEQUALITY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? The relationship between economic growth and inequality has been studied by economists for more than a century. Nonetheless, this issue is still far from resolved and, as explained in this article, the answer to the question of how unequal household income affects a country’s growth is still not clear, both from a theoretical and also empirical perspective. THE SHARING ECONOMY AND TOURISM In this article, we analyse the impact that the sharing economy is having on the tourism market. The popularisation of the sharing economy is changing the way in which some tourism services are provided and has generated new ways of travelling (see figure). However, platforms’ level of penetration in the tourism market varies across subsectors. INEQUALITY AND POPULISM: MYTHS AND TRUTHS Inequality and populism: myths and truths. In recent times, much ink has spilled over the relationship between economic inequality and the rise in populism in advanced countries. In many cases this relationship has been taken as read, as if it were an undeniable fact that economic inequality is the main reason for the emergence ofpopulist parties.
BITCOIN: SPECULATIVE BUBBLE OR CURRENCY OF THE FUTURE? The price of these pizzas at the current bitcoin value would be close to 5.5 million dollars. The bitcoin's value basically reflects speculation on its future value. As with all fiduciary currencies, i.e. currencies not backed by precious metals, the bitcoin will have long-term value as long as it is commonly accepted as a medium ofexchange
EUROPE VS. US STOCK MARKET: MIND THE GAP But even when dividends are not included, Europe still comes off worse in the comparison because it distributes a larger percentage of profits (61.1% compared with 41% in the US) and the dividend yield is higher (3.7% compared with 2.0%). Underlying economic fundamentals are probably the main factor behind this gap between the two stock markets EVERYTHING YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT THE EUROPEAN The Recovery Plan must still be approved by the European and national parliaments. The main element is the Recovery and Resilience Facility, which will provide up to 312.5 billion euros in grants and 360 billion in loans to Member States according to their size and the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. THE SHARING ECONOMY AND TOURISM In this article, we analyse the impact that the sharing economy is having on the tourism market. The popularisation of the sharing economy is changing the way in which some tourism services are provided and has generated new ways of travelling (see figure). However, platforms’ level of penetration in the tourism market varies across subsectors. WHAT WILL BE OF THE US FISCAL POLICY? WHATEVER WILL BE According to estimates by CaixaBank Research, in 2018, the impact of the fiscal stimulus on economic growth was 0.73 pps, with 0.36 pps coming from the tax reform and 0.37 pps from the increase in expenditure. In 2019, the impact of the fiscal stimulus is estimated at 0.24 pps, mainly stemming from the tax reform. 3. HOW IS POTENTIAL GDP CALCULATED? Both the GDP and employment of the countries in the epicentre of the crisis have been significantly hit. Yet the damage could be greater if the crisis hindered their production capacity or growth in the long term which, in economics jargon, is known as potential GDP and potential growth, respectively. POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN EUROPE: FRANCE IN THE EYE OF THE Social unrest in France: short-term economic impact. The protests of the yellow vests in France erupted in November in response to a fuel tax rise aimed at cutting carbon dioxide emissions. We estimate that, on average, these taxes were going to reduce the disposable income of drivers of diesel vehicles by 17 euros per month in 2019 and by 9 PAYMENT SYSTEMS, A KEY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Payment systems, a key infrastructure for economic development. In 1328, Pope John XXII sent 60,000 florins in coins from Rome to Lombardy. In spite of being guarded by 150 men, the expedition fell into an ambush and half the treasure was stolen. Many years later, between 1567 and 1632, Madrid successfully sent 500 million florins tothe
SPAIN'S AGRI-FOOD SECTOR: THE GARDEN OF EUROPE AND MUCH MORE In spite of its secular trend towards tertiarisation, the agri-food sector is a fundamental pillar for Spain's economy. Although primary sectors have gradually lost share, 1 the food industry, responsible for producing processed foods with greater value added, has kept its contribution at around 3.0% of total GVA and has consolidated its position as the leading industrial branch: contributing WHY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IS DECLINING The consequences of lower productivity growth over the past few years are palpable. For instance, it is estimated that, in 2015, the average US citizen would have earned an extra USD 8,400 if productivity had grown at the same rate between 2005 and 2015 as between 1995 and 2004. 1 Moreover, as shown by the article «The technological revolution and slowdown in productivity» in this Dossier CÓMO EVOLUCIONARÁ EL PRECIO DE LA VIVIENDA EN LASTRANSLATE THISPAGE
CaixaBank Research ha desarrollado unos nuevos modelos de previsión del precio de la vivienda a nivel provincial usando grandes cantidades de información (big data) y aplicando técnicas de machine learning. Según estos modelos, el precio de la vivienda disminuirá en 7 de cada 10 provincias españolas en 2021 y crecerá de forma muy moderadaen el resto.
COLECCIÓN ESTUDIOS ECONÓMICOS Ana Isabel Guerra, Ferran Sancho, Isabel Busom, Josep M. Vegara, Montserrat Colldeforns / 21 octubre 2009. El primer objetivo de este nuevo volumen de la Colección Estudios Económicos, que edita el Servicio de Estudios de "la Caixa", es exponer los principales problemas que es preciso afrontar para tratar las cuestionesfundamentales
CAIXABANK RESEARCH
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumptionwere
MONTHLY REPORT
Monthly analysis of the economic outlook for Spain, Portugal, and the world, as well as the developments in the financial markets. It includes specialised articles on the hot topics and the trends which are expected to determine the economic agenda in the short and mediumterm. Available in
EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES: LEVELLING THE PLAYING FIELD FOR EVERYONE Seen in a different context, the Spanish philosopher sums up the essential conclusion to this debate: equal opportunity ultimately means levelling the playing field so that (uncontrollable) circumstances are as minor as possible and people’s lives should be, above all, the result of free will, of assiduously cultivated talentand hard work. 1.
HOW DOES TELEWORKING AFFECT SOCIETY AND OUR WAY OF LIFE? The coronavirus outbreak has made remote work popular and fuelled debate regarding its impact on society and our way of life. However, the concept of working from home is not new; in fact, it was the norm for a large number of workers until well into the 19th century. WHAT WILL BE OF THE US FISCAL POLICY? WHATEVER WILL BE According to estimates by CaixaBank Research, in 2018, the impact of the fiscal stimulus on economic growth was 0.73 pps, with 0.36 pps coming from the tax reform and 0.37 pps from the increase in expenditure. In 2019, the impact of the fiscal stimulus is estimated at 0.24 pps, mainly stemming from the tax reform. 3. RECESSION INEVITABLE IN PORTUGAL, DESPITE THE GOOD Recession inevitable in Portugal, despite the good performance prior to the pandemic. The Portuguese economy was facing 2020 from a position of strength. In 2019, GDP grew by 2.2% (exceeding most forecasts) and the consumption and economic activity indicators for the beginning of 2020 suggested that economic activity remainedhealthy (in
BITCOIN: SPECULATIVE BUBBLE OR CURRENCY OF THE FUTURE? The price of these pizzas at the current bitcoin value would be close to 5.5 million dollars. The bitcoin's value basically reflects speculation on its future value. As with all fiduciary currencies, i.e. currencies not backed by precious metals, the bitcoin will have long-term value as long as it is commonly accepted as a medium ofexchange
HOW DOES INEQUALITY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? The relationship between economic growth and inequality has been studied by economists for more than a century. Nonetheless, this issue is still far from resolved and, as explained in this article, the answer to the question of how unequal household income affects a country’s growth is still not clear, both from a theoretical and also empirical perspective. GERMANY: A CHANGE IN DIRECTION FOR FISCAL POLICY Germany has managed to form a coalition government between conservatives and social democrats, known as the GroKo III as it is the country’s third Große Koalition, six months after September’s general elections.Agreeing on a coalition has been a complicated process and both parties have had to give up part of their programme. INEQUALITY AND POPULISM: MYTHS AND TRUTHS Inequality and populism: myths and truths. In recent times, much ink has spilled over the relationship between economic inequality and the rise in populism in advanced countries. In many cases this relationship has been taken as read, as if it were an undeniable fact that economic inequality is the main reason for the emergence ofpopulist parties.
CAIXABANK RESEARCH
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumptionwere
MONTHLY REPORT
Monthly analysis of the economic outlook for Spain, Portugal, and the world, as well as the developments in the financial markets. It includes specialised articles on the hot topics and the trends which are expected to determine the economic agenda in the short and mediumterm. Available in
EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES: LEVELLING THE PLAYING FIELD FOR EVERYONE Seen in a different context, the Spanish philosopher sums up the essential conclusion to this debate: equal opportunity ultimately means levelling the playing field so that (uncontrollable) circumstances are as minor as possible and people’s lives should be, above all, the result of free will, of assiduously cultivated talentand hard work. 1.
HOW DOES TELEWORKING AFFECT SOCIETY AND OUR WAY OF LIFE? The coronavirus outbreak has made remote work popular and fuelled debate regarding its impact on society and our way of life. However, the concept of working from home is not new; in fact, it was the norm for a large number of workers until well into the 19th century. WHAT WILL BE OF THE US FISCAL POLICY? WHATEVER WILL BE According to estimates by CaixaBank Research, in 2018, the impact of the fiscal stimulus on economic growth was 0.73 pps, with 0.36 pps coming from the tax reform and 0.37 pps from the increase in expenditure. In 2019, the impact of the fiscal stimulus is estimated at 0.24 pps, mainly stemming from the tax reform. 3. RECESSION INEVITABLE IN PORTUGAL, DESPITE THE GOOD Recession inevitable in Portugal, despite the good performance prior to the pandemic. The Portuguese economy was facing 2020 from a position of strength. In 2019, GDP grew by 2.2% (exceeding most forecasts) and the consumption and economic activity indicators for the beginning of 2020 suggested that economic activity remainedhealthy (in
BITCOIN: SPECULATIVE BUBBLE OR CURRENCY OF THE FUTURE? The price of these pizzas at the current bitcoin value would be close to 5.5 million dollars. The bitcoin's value basically reflects speculation on its future value. As with all fiduciary currencies, i.e. currencies not backed by precious metals, the bitcoin will have long-term value as long as it is commonly accepted as a medium ofexchange
HOW DOES INEQUALITY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? The relationship between economic growth and inequality has been studied by economists for more than a century. Nonetheless, this issue is still far from resolved and, as explained in this article, the answer to the question of how unequal household income affects a country’s growth is still not clear, both from a theoretical and also empirical perspective. GERMANY: A CHANGE IN DIRECTION FOR FISCAL POLICY Germany has managed to form a coalition government between conservatives and social democrats, known as the GroKo III as it is the country’s third Große Koalition, six months after September’s general elections.Agreeing on a coalition has been a complicated process and both parties have had to give up part of their programme. INEQUALITY AND POPULISM: MYTHS AND TRUTHS Inequality and populism: myths and truths. In recent times, much ink has spilled over the relationship between economic inequality and the rise in populism in advanced countries. In many cases this relationship has been taken as read, as if it were an undeniable fact that economic inequality is the main reason for the emergence ofpopulist parties.
INDICATORS AND FORECASTS Indicators and forecasts. Click on the charts' title to see our forecasts in more detail. THE SHARING ECONOMY AND TOURISM In this article, we analyse the impact that the sharing economy is having on the tourism market. The popularisation of the sharing economy is changing the way in which some tourism services are provided and has generated new ways of travelling (see figure). However, platforms’ level of penetration in the tourism market varies across subsectors. HOW TO FINANCE PENSIONS The Spanish Social Security system is currently financed mostly via contributions, accounting for 85% of all the system’s income. The rest comes from the state budget and is used to meet the cost of non-contributory pensions, 1 so it has zero effect on the Social Security income statement. Funding pensions via Social Securitycontributions is
GLOBALISATION AT A HISTORIC CROSSROADS: DEGLOBALISATION OR Globalisation, defined as the global integration of markets for goods, services, capital and people, is a phenomenon with very old roots and which still has a lot of life left in it. Most studies agree that we are currently in the aftermath of the so-called second wave of globalisation and that, in the event of a new drive towards greater POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN EUROPE: FRANCE IN THE EYE OF THE Social unrest in France: short-term economic impact. The protests of the yellow vests in France erupted in November in response to a fuel tax rise aimed at cutting carbon dioxide emissions. We estimate that, on average, these taxes were going to reduce the disposable income of drivers of diesel vehicles by 17 euros per month in 2019 and by 9 THE ROLE OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN SPAIN’S PRODUCTIVITY 1. We define labour productivity as the gross value added per hour worked. We define the degree of penetration of new technologies as the stock of capital per hour worked in software and databases, research and development, computers and telecommunications equipment (according to EU KLEMS). As discussed in the second article, this is a broad approximation for new technologies. EUROPE VS. US STOCK MARKET: MIND THE GAP But even when dividends are not included, Europe still comes off worse in the comparison because it distributes a larger percentage of profits (61.1% compared with 41% in the US) and the dividend yield is higher (3.7% compared with 2.0%). Underlying economic fundamentals are probably the main factor behind this gap between the two stock markets THE IMPORTANCE OF WAGE PRESSURES IN PRICE DETERMINATION The importance of wage pressures in price determination. Historically, we have seen a strong relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation: in general, when unemployment falls, wage pressures tend to increase, and vice versa. However, this relationship, which is known as the Phillips curve, appears to have been weakened in recent years. PORTUGAL: THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY LEADS EXPORTS OF GOODS The importance of automotive exports 1. In recent years, the automotive cluster in Portugal has acquired greater economic weight in terms of GDP. Today, the automotive sector is responsible for nearly 8.5% of the production of Portugal’s industry and 2.1% of the production of the Portuguese economy as a whole. CÓMO COMPARAR EL BIENESTAR ENTRE PAÍSES?TRANSLATE THIS PAGE Los países del norte de Europa suelen tener fama de ser los países más felices del mundo. En 2017, el Índice de Felicidad publicado por el Programa de Desarrollo de las Naciones Unidas situó a Noruega como el país más feliz del mundo, y quitó el trono a otro país nórdico, Dinamarca, que había encabezado el ranking desde 2012, año en que se publicó por primera vez dicho índice.CAIXABANK RESEARCH
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumptionwere
MONTHLY REPORT
Monthly analysis of the economic outlook for Spain, Portugal, and the world, as well as the developments in the financial markets. It includes specialised articles on the hot topics and the trends which are expected to determine the economic agenda in the short and mediumterm. Available in
EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES: LEVELLING THE PLAYING FIELD FOR EVERYONE Seen in a different context, the Spanish philosopher sums up the essential conclusion to this debate: equal opportunity ultimately means levelling the playing field so that (uncontrollable) circumstances are as minor as possible and people’s lives should be, above all, the result of free will, of assiduously cultivated talentand hard work. 1.
HOW DOES TELEWORKING AFFECT SOCIETY AND OUR WAY OF LIFE? The coronavirus outbreak has made remote work popular and fuelled debate regarding its impact on society and our way of life. However, the concept of working from home is not new; in fact, it was the norm for a large number of workers until well into the 19th century. WHAT WILL BE OF THE US FISCAL POLICY? WHATEVER WILL BECURRENT US FISCAL POLICYEXAMPLES OF FISCAL POLICIESUS FISCAL POLICIES IN 2000SAMERICA S FISCAL POLICYCURRENT FISCAL POLICY UNITED STATESFISCAL POLICY EXAMPLES UNITED STATES According to estimates by CaixaBank Research, in 2018, the impact of the fiscal stimulus on economic growth was 0.73 pps, with 0.36 pps coming from the tax reform and 0.37 pps from the increase in expenditure. In 2019, the impact of the fiscal stimulus is estimated at 0.24 pps, mainly stemming from the tax reform. 3. RECESSION INEVITABLE IN PORTUGAL, DESPITE THE GOOD Recession inevitable in Portugal, despite the good performance prior to the pandemic. The Portuguese economy was facing 2020 from a position of strength. In 2019, GDP grew by 2.2% (exceeding most forecasts) and the consumption and economic activity indicators for the beginning of 2020 suggested that economic activity remainedhealthy (in
BITCOIN: SPECULATIVE BUBBLE OR CURRENCY OF THE FUTURE?BITCOIN FUTURES MARKETFUTURE OF BITCOIN PRICEBITCOIN FUTURE PREDICTIONSBITCOIN FUTURE PRICE 2020BITCOIN FUTURES CHARTBITCOIN FUTURE VALUE 2025 The price of these pizzas at the current bitcoin value would be close to 5.5 million dollars. The bitcoin's value basically reflects speculation on its future value. As with all fiduciary currencies, i.e. currencies not backed by precious metals, the bitcoin will have long-term value as long as it is commonly accepted as a medium ofexchange
HOW DOES INEQUALITY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? The relationship between economic growth and inequality has been studied by economists for more than a century. Nonetheless, this issue is still far from resolved and, as explained in this article, the answer to the question of how unequal household income affects a country’s growth is still not clear, both from a theoretical and also empirical perspective. GERMANY: A CHANGE IN DIRECTION FOR FISCAL POLICYWHAT IS FISCAL POLICYCURRENT US FISCAL POLICYFISCAL POLICY VS MONETARY POLICYEXAMPLES OF FISCAL POLICIESFISCAL POLICIES IN THE 1950STYPES OF FISCAL POLICIES Germany has managed to form a coalition government between conservatives and social democrats, known as the GroKo III as it is the country’s third Große Koalition, six months after September’s general elections.Agreeing on a coalition has been a complicated process and both parties have had to give up part of their programme. INEQUALITY AND POPULISM: MYTHS AND TRUTHSECONOMIC CLUSTERING AND POPULISMECONOMIC POPULISM DEFINEDEXAMPLES OF POPULISM TODAYPOPULISMDEFINITION
Inequality and populism: myths and truths. In recent times, much ink has spilled over the relationship between economic inequality and the rise in populism in advanced countries. In many cases this relationship has been taken as read, as if it were an undeniable fact that economic inequality is the main reason for the emergence ofpopulist parties.
CAIXABANK RESEARCH
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumptionwere
MONTHLY REPORT
Monthly analysis of the economic outlook for Spain, Portugal, and the world, as well as the developments in the financial markets. It includes specialised articles on the hot topics and the trends which are expected to determine the economic agenda in the short and mediumterm. Available in
EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES: LEVELLING THE PLAYING FIELD FOR EVERYONE Seen in a different context, the Spanish philosopher sums up the essential conclusion to this debate: equal opportunity ultimately means levelling the playing field so that (uncontrollable) circumstances are as minor as possible and people’s lives should be, above all, the result of free will, of assiduously cultivated talentand hard work. 1.
HOW DOES TELEWORKING AFFECT SOCIETY AND OUR WAY OF LIFE? The coronavirus outbreak has made remote work popular and fuelled debate regarding its impact on society and our way of life. However, the concept of working from home is not new; in fact, it was the norm for a large number of workers until well into the 19th century. WHAT WILL BE OF THE US FISCAL POLICY? WHATEVER WILL BECURRENT US FISCAL POLICYEXAMPLES OF FISCAL POLICIESUS FISCAL POLICIES IN 2000SAMERICA S FISCAL POLICYCURRENT FISCAL POLICY UNITED STATESFISCAL POLICY EXAMPLES UNITED STATES According to estimates by CaixaBank Research, in 2018, the impact of the fiscal stimulus on economic growth was 0.73 pps, with 0.36 pps coming from the tax reform and 0.37 pps from the increase in expenditure. In 2019, the impact of the fiscal stimulus is estimated at 0.24 pps, mainly stemming from the tax reform. 3. RECESSION INEVITABLE IN PORTUGAL, DESPITE THE GOOD Recession inevitable in Portugal, despite the good performance prior to the pandemic. The Portuguese economy was facing 2020 from a position of strength. In 2019, GDP grew by 2.2% (exceeding most forecasts) and the consumption and economic activity indicators for the beginning of 2020 suggested that economic activity remainedhealthy (in
BITCOIN: SPECULATIVE BUBBLE OR CURRENCY OF THE FUTURE?BITCOIN FUTURES MARKETFUTURE OF BITCOIN PRICEBITCOIN FUTURE PREDICTIONSBITCOIN FUTURE PRICE 2020BITCOIN FUTURES CHARTBITCOIN FUTURE VALUE 2025 The price of these pizzas at the current bitcoin value would be close to 5.5 million dollars. The bitcoin's value basically reflects speculation on its future value. As with all fiduciary currencies, i.e. currencies not backed by precious metals, the bitcoin will have long-term value as long as it is commonly accepted as a medium ofexchange
HOW DOES INEQUALITY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? The relationship between economic growth and inequality has been studied by economists for more than a century. Nonetheless, this issue is still far from resolved and, as explained in this article, the answer to the question of how unequal household income affects a country’s growth is still not clear, both from a theoretical and also empirical perspective. GERMANY: A CHANGE IN DIRECTION FOR FISCAL POLICYWHAT IS FISCAL POLICYCURRENT US FISCAL POLICYFISCAL POLICY VS MONETARY POLICYEXAMPLES OF FISCAL POLICIESFISCAL POLICIES IN THE 1950STYPES OF FISCAL POLICIES Germany has managed to form a coalition government between conservatives and social democrats, known as the GroKo III as it is the country’s third Große Koalition, six months after September’s general elections.Agreeing on a coalition has been a complicated process and both parties have had to give up part of their programme. INEQUALITY AND POPULISM: MYTHS AND TRUTHSECONOMIC CLUSTERING AND POPULISMECONOMIC POPULISM DEFINEDEXAMPLES OF POPULISM TODAYPOPULISMDEFINITION
Inequality and populism: myths and truths. In recent times, much ink has spilled over the relationship between economic inequality and the rise in populism in advanced countries. In many cases this relationship has been taken as read, as if it were an undeniable fact that economic inequality is the main reason for the emergence ofpopulist parties.
INDICATORS AND FORECASTS Indicators and forecasts. Click on the charts' title to see our forecasts in more detail. THE SHARING ECONOMY AND TOURISM In this article, we analyse the impact that the sharing economy is having on the tourism market. The popularisation of the sharing economy is changing the way in which some tourism services are provided and has generated new ways of travelling (see figure). However, platforms’ level of penetration in the tourism market varies across subsectors. HOW TO FINANCE PENSIONS The Spanish Social Security system is currently financed mostly via contributions, accounting for 85% of all the system’s income. The rest comes from the state budget and is used to meet the cost of non-contributory pensions, 1 so it has zero effect on the Social Security income statement. Funding pensions via Social Securitycontributions is
GLOBALISATION AT A HISTORIC CROSSROADS: DEGLOBALISATION OR Globalisation, defined as the global integration of markets for goods, services, capital and people, is a phenomenon with very old roots and which still has a lot of life left in it. Most studies agree that we are currently in the aftermath of the so-called second wave of globalisation and that, in the event of a new drive towards greater POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN EUROPE: FRANCE IN THE EYE OF THE Social unrest in France: short-term economic impact. The protests of the yellow vests in France erupted in November in response to a fuel tax rise aimed at cutting carbon dioxide emissions. We estimate that, on average, these taxes were going to reduce the disposable income of drivers of diesel vehicles by 17 euros per month in 2019 and by 9 THE ROLE OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN SPAIN’S PRODUCTIVITY 1. We define labour productivity as the gross value added per hour worked. We define the degree of penetration of new technologies as the stock of capital per hour worked in software and databases, research and development, computers and telecommunications equipment (according to EU KLEMS). As discussed in the second article, this is a broad approximation for new technologies. EUROPE VS. US STOCK MARKET: MIND THE GAP But even when dividends are not included, Europe still comes off worse in the comparison because it distributes a larger percentage of profits (61.1% compared with 41% in the US) and the dividend yield is higher (3.7% compared with 2.0%). Underlying economic fundamentals are probably the main factor behind this gap between the two stock markets THE IMPORTANCE OF WAGE PRESSURES IN PRICE DETERMINATION The importance of wage pressures in price determination. Historically, we have seen a strong relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation: in general, when unemployment falls, wage pressures tend to increase, and vice versa. However, this relationship, which is known as the Phillips curve, appears to have been weakened in recent years. PORTUGAL: THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY LEADS EXPORTS OF GOODS The importance of automotive exports 1. In recent years, the automotive cluster in Portugal has acquired greater economic weight in terms of GDP. Today, the automotive sector is responsible for nearly 8.5% of the production of Portugal’s industry and 2.1% of the production of the Portuguese economy as a whole. CÓMO COMPARAR EL BIENESTAR ENTRE PAÍSES?TRANSLATE THIS PAGE Los países del norte de Europa suelen tener fama de ser los países más felices del mundo. En 2017, el Índice de Felicidad publicado por el Programa de Desarrollo de las Naciones Unidas situó a Noruega como el país más feliz del mundo, y quitó el trono a otro país nórdico, Dinamarca, que había encabezado el ranking desde 2012, año en que se publicó por primera vez dicho índice. Skip to main content NAVEGACIÓN PRINCIPAL * " class="is-active">Home * Economics & Markets* Sector analysis
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NAVEGACIÓN PRINCIPAL * " rel="noprefetch" class="is-active">Home * Economics & MarketsECONOMICS & MARKETS
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View all about Economics & Markets SPAIN’S RECOVERY PLAN: TURNING WORDS INTO ACTIONSpanish economy
Javier García ArenasMay 14th, 2021
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SECTOR ANALYSIS
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View all about Sector analysis RURAL TOURISM AS A RESPONSE TO COVID-19 Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa FusterMay 3rd, 2021
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View all about Geographical areas TAKING STOCK OF THE «INTERMEDIATE» SECTORS IN SPAINSpanish economy
Oriol Carreras Baquer April 19th, 2021 * Indicators and forecasts* Publications
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View all about PublicationsMONTHLY REPORT
May 2021 | No. 456Dossier:
Consumption during the pandemic: a cross section by generationCheck the report
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Financial Markets Daily Report04 June 2021
The ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by 978,000 jobs, the biggest increase since June last year. Additional figures of the services sector showed signs of economic improvement. On the other hand, President Joe Biden may be open to hike the corporate tax rate below 28%.view
Demographics
THE CONSUMPTION OF EACH GENERATION IN NORMAL TIMES... AND IN TIMES OFPANDEMIC
Has the COVID-19 affected the consumption habits of each generation or the same types of goods in equal measure? How did we consume before and during the pandemic? Josep Mestres Domènech Eduard Llorens i Jimeno13 May 2021
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MONTHLY REPORT
May 2021 | No. 456Dossier:
Consumption during the pandemic: a cross section by generationCheck the report
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Demographics
THE TRANSITION TO E-COMMERCE DURING THE PANDEMIC: EVERYONE IN EQUALMEASURE?
Eduard Llorens i Jimeno13 May 2021
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Demographics
FROM BANKNOTES TO BIZUM: THE INTERGENERATIONAL BOOST OF THE PANDEMICTO DIGITAL PAYMENT METHODS Josep Mestres Domènech Eduard Llorens i Jimeno14 May 2021
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Demographics
INCOME AND EXPENDITURE BETWEEN GENERATIONS IN TIMES OF PANDEMICSeveral authors
14 May 2021
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Tourism
THE NEED TO TAKE OFF IN 2021 Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa Fuster03 May 2021
Tourism
RURAL TOURISM AS A RESPONSE TO COVID-19 Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa Fuster03 May 2021
Consumption
THE ROLE OF PENT-UP DEMAND IN THE EURO AREA RECOVERY IN 2021Álvaro Leandro
Eduard Llorens i Jimeno30 April 2021
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COVID-19
TAKING STOCK OF THE «INTERMEDIATE» SECTORS IN SPAIN Oriol Carreras Baquer19 April 2021
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Activity & growth
A MUCH-NEEDED AID PACKAGE FOR BUSINESSES AND SELF-EMPLOYED WORKERS INSPAIN
Javier García Arenas19 April 2021
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Technology
AUTOMATION: A RACE WE ARE NOT DEVOTING ENOUGH EFFORT TOClàudia Canals
Oriol Carreras Baquer19 April 2021
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OPINION
EDITORIAL
No country for young menOriol Aspachs
Spanish Economy Director KEY POINTS OF THE MONTHReason for hope
José Ramón Díez
Head of International Economies and Financial MarketsRECOMMENDED
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Foreign sector
PORTUGAL’S EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS SHOW REASSURING VITAL SIGNSTeresa Gil Pinheiro
04 June 2021
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Disposable income stabilisers Luís Pinheiro de Matos18 May 2021
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Emerging economies
Emerging economy outlook: an uneven recoveryÀlex Ruiz ,
Beatriz Villafranca Serrano18 May 2021
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Financial markets outlook Investor sentiment gradually improves18 May 2021
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Political polarisation: the phenomenon that should be on everyone’slips
Who are the Millennials? Who is the middle class? New technologies: what are they and how do they affect the economy? The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on European inflationNewsletter
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COVID-19 crisis: economic outlookEmerging economies
EMERGING ECONOMY OUTLOOK: AN UNEVEN RECOVERYAutor
Àlex Ruiz
Beatriz Villafranca Serrano Economic policies against COVID-19Public sector
DISPOSABLE INCOME STABILISERSAutor
Luís Pinheiro de Matos Financial stability in times of COVID-19Política monetaria
DE RIESGOS DE SOBRECALENTAMIENTO EN EE. UU. Y DE CONSECUENCIAS PARA LAEUROZONA
Spain and COVID-19: sector impactAnálisis sectorial
LA SUSTITUCIÓN DEL EFECTIVO POR LA TARJETA COMO MEDIO DE PAGO DURANTELA PANDEMIA
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Long-term trends
To understand the factors that will redefine the economy in the mediumand long term
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Climate change & green transitionClimate change
WILL ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS INCREASE AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC?Autor
Ricard Murillo Gili
Demographics
Demographics
INCOME AND EXPENDITURE BETWEEN GENERATIONS IN TIMES OF PANDEMICAutor
Several authors
Technology
Demographics
FROM BANKNOTES TO BIZUM: THE INTERGENERATIONAL BOOST OF THE PANDEMICTO DIGITAL PAYMENT METHODSAutor
Josep Mestres Domènech Eduard Llorens i JimenoMacrofinance
Política monetaria
DE RIESGOS DE SOBRECALENTAMIENTO EN EE. UU. Y DE CONSECUENCIAS PARA LAEUROZONA
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Espanya , Desigualtat ,COVID-19
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Análisis del sector inmobiliario España , Inmobiliario Anàlisi de conjuntura Perspectives econòmiques per al 2021, un any de canvi Espanya , Crecimiento, COVID-19
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Por qué es importante la inflación? Inflación , COVID-19 Anàlisi de conjuntura Perspectives econòmiques 2021 COVID-19 , Espanya ,Desigualtat
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UNA RECUPERACIÓN ASIMÉTRICA Al conocerse ya los datos del PIB del 1T 2021 para muchas economías, se confirma que este año podrá leerse en dos capítulos: el de la expansión y el de la contención. Este mes destacan también las reuniones de la Fed y el BCE, los nuevos anuncios de planes fiscales y los riesgos de sobrecalentamiento en EE. UU. y el envío del plan de recuperación de España. Además, el análisis de datos internos revela el impacto de la crisis de la covid en términos de consumo e ingresos entre las generaciones y, una vez más, los jóvenes son losmás perjudicados.
Clàudia Canals
14 May 2021
Análisis de coyuntura PERSPECTIVAS MACROECONÓMICAS DE ESPAÑA PARA 2021 Nuestro Economista jefe comparte las perspectivas de la economía española para el año 2021, en este vídeo para los Accionistas deCaixaBank.
Enric Fernández
11 March 2021
Desigualtat
PRESENTACIÓ DE L'ESTUDI SOBRE L’IMPACTE DE LA COVID-19 SOBRE LADESIGUALTAT
El nostre director d’Estudis va presentar a la Societat Catalana d’Economia els principals resultats de l’estudi de l’impacte de la COVID-19 en la desigualtat, que estem duent a terme en col·laboració amb ICREA-UPF i que pots seguir a https://inequality-tracker.caixabankresearch.com/Oriol Aspachs
18 February 2021
Inmobiliario
ANÁLISIS DEL SECTOR INMOBILIARIO Judit Montoriol ha participado en la VI edición #EFIMAD2021 abordando la situación y las perspectivas del sector inmobiliario español en el complejo contexto económico actual. Judit Montoriol-Garriga18 February 2021
Anàlisi de conjuntura PERSPECTIVES ECONÒMIQUES PER AL 2021, UN ANY DE CANVI El 9 de febrer tres dels nostres economistes van compartir amb #AmicsdelPaís les “Perspectives econòmiques per al 2021, un any de canvi” de CaixaBank Research en un seminari online que reproduïm enaquest vídeo.
Adrià Morron SalmeronÀlex Ruiz
Javier García Arenas09 February 2021
Inflación
POR QUÉ ES IMPORTANTE LA INFLACIÓN? En los últimos años, la inflación europea ha sido inferior a lo deseado por el BCE y, desde 2018, incluso ha ido perdiendo dinamismo. Esta debilidad se ha intensificado con la crisis de la COVID-19. Será esta debilidad temporal o permanente?Ricard Murillo Gili
21 December 2020
Anàlisi de conjuntura PERSPECTIVES ECONÒMIQUES 2021 Josep Mestres va analitzar la crisi de la COVID-19, les cicatrius que està deixant en forma de desigualtat i les perspectives econòmiques per al 2021, en el webinar organitzat per Sant Cugat Empresarial SCE. Josep Mestres Domènech17 December 2020
https://player.vimeo.com/video/486841936 Coyuntura internacional LA ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL EN 2021: BIDEN, CHINA, BREXIT Clàudia Canals aborda las perspectivas de la economía internacional en 2021 en este webinario organizado por CaixaBank Talks el 16 dediciembre.
Clàudia Canals
16 December 2020
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Zoom Out-0.5-1.5-1.0-0.500.51.01.52.02.53.03.5L20162018202020222024Fed FundsECB Refi100%Chart created using amCharts library Update date 10-05-2021 /en/indicators-and-forecasts/forecasts-financial-markets MACROECONOMIC FORECASTSGDP (%)
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