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in future
BREXIT AND COVID-19 ARE A TOXIC MIX Brexit and COVID-19 are a toxic mix. The second wave of COVID-19 is arriving just before the UK leaves the single market. The pandemic will make it harder for the economy to adjust to Brexit. Britain’s finance minister, Rishi Sunak, announced last week that his furlough scheme would continue, after vowing it would end on October 31st. THE EU'S CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM: HOW TO MAKE The EU’s proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) risks unfairly penalising the exports of developing countries. If the mechanism applied to the imports of all goods currently covered by the EU’s Emissions Trading System, up to $16 billion of developing country exports to the EU could face an additional charge.DRAGHI'S CHALLENGE
The European Commission expects the spending to go hand-in-hand with reform. Draghi will find it just as challenging to enact long called-for reforms to strengthen Italy’s economy – such as reforming the civil service and the justice system – as did his reform-minded predecessors. IS A EUROPEAN SECURITY COUNCIL A GOOD IDEA? Is a European Security Council a good idea? The EU is a trade and regulatory superpower, but it has consistently punched below its weight in foreign and security policy. Its sanctions on Russia for its intervention in Ukraine, and its work in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal stand out as rare successes. A TALE OF BATTERIES, BREXIT AND EU STRATEGIC AUTONOMY A tale of batteries, Brexit and EU strategic autonomy. Recently leaked proposals suggest the EU wants to use the EU-UK trade deal to help on-shore an electric vehicle supply chain. But this heavy handed approach risks undermining its claim to be a world leader on climate change and green technologies. In an ideal world, the EU’s tradepolicy
AN EU ARMY? FOUR REASONS IT WILL NOT HAPPEN Two: Unwillingness to deploy. The lack of a shared vision of how to use EU forces would be an enormous problem in a crisis. Member-states would be keen to protect their sovereignty, which means that a single government could block a deployment. Europeans have learned this the EUROPE WITHOUT THE UK: LIBERATED OR DIMINISHED? 1. Even without the UK, the consensus for liberalising the internal market in goods, services and labour will endure. The signs are that deepening of the single market will continue, with a focus on the digital market. Though integrating services markets would be a big prize, the opposition of national regulators and professional bodiesis
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN REFORM “Behind the scenes the effect is clearly showing up in the data,” said John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, citing his own research and figures from the Office for National Statistics, the London School of Economics and the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. THE COST OF BREXIT: FEBRUARY 2021 Last month, our cost of Brexit model showed that leaving the single market and customs union in January 2021 had reduced the UK’s total goods trade by 22 per cent. Using the data for February, which was released today, we estimate that goods trade is now 5 per cent, or 3.5 billion, lower. THE COST OF BREXIT, JANUARY 2021: THE END OF TRANSITION The cost of Brexit, January 2021: The end of transition edition. New analysis by the Centre for European Reform finds that leaving the EU’s single market and customs union led total UK goods trade to fall by 22 per cent, relative to a modelled Britain that remained within the single market and customs union. This figure will improvein future
BREXIT AND COVID-19 ARE A TOXIC MIX Brexit and COVID-19 are a toxic mix. The second wave of COVID-19 is arriving just before the UK leaves the single market. The pandemic will make it harder for the economy to adjust to Brexit. Britain’s finance minister, Rishi Sunak, announced last week that his furlough scheme would continue, after vowing it would end on October 31st. THE EU'S CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM: HOW TO MAKE The EU’s proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) risks unfairly penalising the exports of developing countries. If the mechanism applied to the imports of all goods currently covered by the EU’s Emissions Trading System, up to $16 billion of developing country exports to the EU could face an additional charge.DRAGHI'S CHALLENGE
The European Commission expects the spending to go hand-in-hand with reform. Draghi will find it just as challenging to enact long called-for reforms to strengthen Italy’s economy – such as reforming the civil service and the justice system – as did his reform-minded predecessors. IS A EUROPEAN SECURITY COUNCIL A GOOD IDEA? Is a European Security Council a good idea? The EU is a trade and regulatory superpower, but it has consistently punched below its weight in foreign and security policy. Its sanctions on Russia for its intervention in Ukraine, and its work in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal stand out as rare successes. A TALE OF BATTERIES, BREXIT AND EU STRATEGIC AUTONOMY A tale of batteries, Brexit and EU strategic autonomy. Recently leaked proposals suggest the EU wants to use the EU-UK trade deal to help on-shore an electric vehicle supply chain. But this heavy handed approach risks undermining its claim to be a world leader on climate change and green technologies. In an ideal world, the EU’s tradepolicy
AN EU ARMY? FOUR REASONS IT WILL NOT HAPPEN Two: Unwillingness to deploy. The lack of a shared vision of how to use EU forces would be an enormous problem in a crisis. Member-states would be keen to protect their sovereignty, which means that a single government could block a deployment. Europeans have learned this the EUROPE WITHOUT THE UK: LIBERATED OR DIMINISHED? 1. Even without the UK, the consensus for liberalising the internal market in goods, services and labour will endure. The signs are that deepening of the single market will continue, with a focus on the digital market. Though integrating services markets would be a big prize, the opposition of national regulators and professional bodiesis
THE G7 CORPORATE TAX DEAL: WHY THE EU SHOULD CURB ITS 1 day ago · The recent G7 deal will not bolster the European Commission’s broader efforts to fight aggressive tax practices. The Commission needs political T20 WEBINAR ON 'AFTER COVID-19: A MOST WANTED RECOVERY T20 webinar on 'After COVID-19: A most wanted recovery'. 19 May 2021. Organised by Bruegel and ISPI in co-operation with Elcano Royal Institute and the CER. This event addressed the measures to foster a quick recovery after the pandemic, but one which also ensures a sustainable and more inclusive future. The event was held in theframework of
PRESIDENT BIDEN WENT TO EUROPE, AND ALL WE GOT WAS 13 hours ago · Biden is America’s most Atlanticist president since Bill Clinton. Europe and the US will not see eye-to-eye on everything, but they should not waste this chance to strengthen their partnership. THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON THE EU The impact of Brexit on the EU. Brexit will weaken those forces in the EU that favour greater integration. It will also make Germany even more preponderant. Meanwhile the British face a lengthy and difficult negotiation for a new relationship – probably along lines of the ‘Canadian model’. Last December Marine Le Pen said that if the UK EUROPE WITHOUT THE UK: LIBERATED OR DIMINISHED? 1. Even without the UK, the consensus for liberalising the internal market in goods, services and labour will endure. The signs are that deepening of the single market will continue, with a focus on the digital market. Though integrating services markets would be a big prize, the opposition of national regulators and professional bodiesis
HOW GREECE CAN RECOVER FROM COVID The amount that Athens can expect to receive in grants over the 2021-28 period is around €19.5 billion (roughly 12 per cent of 2020 GDP, plus another €12.4 billion in cheap loans). Greece can expect a very large growth boost of about 2 per cent a year from the THE BRITISH AND THEIR EXCEPTIONALISM The British and their exceptionalism. Few countries have allowed their sense of exceptionalism to damage their interests in the way Britain is doing. British overconfidence is unjustified and will come at a heavy price. Most countries see themselves as exceptional, but few have ever allowed the belief in their exceptionalism to damage their IS A EUROPEAN SECURITY COUNCIL A GOOD IDEA? Is a European Security Council a good idea? The EU is a trade and regulatory superpower, but it has consistently punched below its weight in foreign and security policy. Its sanctions on Russia for its intervention in Ukraine, and its work in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal stand out as rare successes. BBC RADIO THREE COUNTIES: GLOBAL TAX REFORM As well as a global minimum corporate tax, the G7 is also set to agree a reallocation of the right to tax. Countries like the UK, France and Germany, that have large consumer bases using big tech companies like Amazon, will be able to levy taxes. Zach Meyers spoke to Roberto Perrone (from 3.12). TARIFFS CUT ON CHEESE, PORK AND POULTRY IN UK-NORWAY TRADE Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, described the UK-EEA deal as “necessary” and a “good thing” but said its success depended on the baseline of measurement. “If you are comparing it to normal free trade agreements, then it is certainly true that the deal has raised the bar in some areas, for example mutual recognition of professional Skip to main content area CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN REFORMSelect
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ENDING EUROPE'S INERTIA ON ISRAEL AND PALESTINEBeth Oppenheim
03 June 2021
After 11 days of violence, Israel and Hamas have begun a ceasefire. But as long as Israel denies Palestinian rights and permanently occupies Palestinian territory, violence will reoccur.*
MACRON'S EUROPE
Charles Grant
01 June 2021
If President Emmanuel Macron is re-elected in April 2022 – likely, though not certain – he will be Europe’s pre-eminent leader forseveral years.
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HURRAH FOR THE CONFERENCE ON THE FUTURE OF EUROPE! Camino Mortera-Martinez01 June 2021
If done right, the conference on the future of Europe can help bring about meaningful reform in the EU – even if that means changing thetreaties.
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CAN THE EU SET A GLOBAL RULEBOOK FOR BIG TECH?Zach Meyers
01 June 2021
The EU is angling to set a rulebook for digital markets which could be adopted around the world. To achieve this, its draft regulations needimprovement.
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CER PODCAST: POLITICAL REPRESSION IN BELARUS AND WHAT THE WEST CAN DOABOUT IT
Ian Bond , Katia Glod28 May 2021
Ian Bond speaks to Katia Glod about the latest wave of repression in Belarus and what the West can do to help.9176
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PUBLICATIONS
BULLETIN ISSUE 138 - JUNE/JULY 2021 Charles Grant , CaminoMortera-Martinez ,
Zach Meyers
01 June 2021
* Macron's Europe
, Charles
Grant
* Hurrah for the conference on the future of Europe!,
Camino Mortera-Martinez * Can the EU set a global rulebook for Big Tech?,
Zach Meyers
LEARNING TO LIVE WITH DEBT Christian Odendahl , AdamTooze
18 May 2021
When the old consensus on public debt was formed in the 1980s, the world economy was very different from today’s. It’s time for a newapproach.
EU FOREIGN, SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY CO-OPERATION WITH NEIGHBOURS:MAPPING DIVERSITY
Ian Bond , Luigi Scazzieri , Senem Aydın-Düzgit10 May 2021
The EU and its neighbours co-operate in foreign policy in different ways it would benefit by working more closely with its partners. HOW TO FIGHT CORRUPTION AND UPHOLD THE RULE OF LAW Camino Mortera-Martinez27 April 2021
Corruption is a problem for the European Union and endangers the rule of law. To protect EU money and stop democratic backsliding, the EU needs better anti-graft plans. THE EU'S CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM: HOW TO MAKE IT WORK FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIESSam Lowe
22 April 2021
The EU should exempt developing country exports from its CBAM to avoid unfairly penalising countries that have contributed a much smaller share of cumulative global carbon emissions. THE SAHEL: EUROPE'S FOREVER WAR?Katherine Pye
31 March 2021
Europe's involvement in the Sahel has not only failed to prevent a rapid escalation in the region's conflict, but risks becoming counter-productive. Europe should remodel its approach to prioritise good governance and accountability. BULLETIN ISSUE 137 - APRIL/MAY 2021 Sam Lowe , Camino Mortera-Martinez , Christian Odendahl , Katherine Pye, JohnSpringford
29 March 2021
* Why Europe should spend big like Biden,
Christian Odendahl, John Springford * Post-Brexit data transfers are not a done deal,
Sam Lowe, Camino Mortera-Martinez * Can Europe stabilise the Sahel?,
Katherine Pye
KEEPING UP APPEARANCES: WHAT NOW FOR UK SERVICES TRADE?Sam Lowe
22 February 2021
Rather than obsessing about services exports, UK policy-makers should focus on investment and ensuring the UK remains an attractive destination for multinational services firms to operate out of. THE NEW GEOPOLITICS: ANNUAL REPORT 2020Charles Grant
11 February 2021
The CER’s annual report features an essay on 12 geopolitical trends that are reshaping Europe. The report also describes some highlights of the CER’s work on Brexit, economics and foreign policy. HOW GREECE CAN RECOVER FROM COVID Christian Odendahl ,Yiannis Mouzakis
09 February 2021
The pandemic is adding to Greece’s economic problems. But the EU recovery fund, if spent well, offers Greece a chance to turn a corner. LATEST INSIGHTS AND OPINION PIECES ENDING EUROPE'S INERTIA ON ISRAEL AND PALESTINEBeth Oppenheim
03 June 2021
After 11 days of violence, Israel and Hamas have begun a ceasefire. But as long as Israel denies Palestinian rights and permanently occupies Palestinian territory, violence will reoccur. THE EU NEEDS BETTER ANTI-CORRUPTION PLANS TO DEFEND THE RULE OF LAW INEUROPE
Camino Mortera-Martinez01 June 2021
Encompass
If all goes according to plan, the EU should start disbursing money from its post-pandemic recovery fund next month. DON'T IMITATE – INNOVATE! WHY EUROPE DOESN'T NEED A RIVAL TO VISAAND MASTERCARD
Zach Meyers
28 May 2021
The European authorities want a home-grown challenger to Visa and Mastercard. They should instead encourage European banks to support more diverse payment options. A TRADE DEAL WITH AUSTRALIA WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT, BUT IT RAISES BIG QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UK'S TRADE POLICYSam Lowe
24 May 2021
The House
The British government is going to need to work harder if it is to keep enough people onboard with its trade agenda. HOW TO DECARBONISE EU ROAD TRANSPORT WITHOUT SUMMONING THE GILETSJAUNES
Elisabetta Cornago
19 May 2021
Extending carbon pricing to road transport will initially make driving more expensive, hurting poorer households. ROCIITO Y EL ESTADO DE DERECHO Camino Mortera-Martinez17 May 2021
El Periodico
España tendrá unas cuantas cosas que explicar cuando la UE ponga en marcha su mecanismo de supervisión del Estado de derecho. THE COST OF BREXIT: MARCH 2021John Springford
12 May 2021
We estimate that leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK trade by 11 per cent in March 2021. That is on top of a 10 per cent hit to trade between the referendum and leaving the singlemarket.
THE US AND THE NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL: TIME TO WALK THE WALKSam Lowe
07 May 2021
The US wants the UK to diverge from EU food hygiene rules and to prioritise political and economic stability in Northern Ireland. But what if the UK can’t do both? HOW THE DIGITAL MARKETS ACT CAN TAME BIG TECHZach Meyers
06 May 2021
Encompass
The European Commission announced at the end of April that it believes Apple has breached competition laws. This was predictable. TAMING 'BIG TECH': HOW THE DIGITAL MARKETS ACT SHOULD IDENTIFYGATEKEEPERS
Zach Meyers
04 May 2021
The European Commission is rushing to impose new rules on large digital platforms. A more careful approach would benefit Europeandigital businesses.
IN THE PRESS - TYPICAL! FRENCH OFFICIALS TO USE EU PRESIDENCY TO 'HELP MACRON GET RE-ELECTED'Charles Grant
01 June 2021
The Daily Express
French officials are set to use their EU presidency to help Emmanuel Macron get re-elected as the President of France, according to the director of the Centre for European Reform. Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said France will use its EU presidency in the first half of next year ahead of the French presidential elections to "promote its ideas of Europe". IN THE PRESS - BREXIT SHRANK UK SERVICES EXPORTS BY £110BN, ACADEMICSFIND
John Springford
31 May 2021
Financial Times
“Behind the scenes the effect is clearly showing up in the data,” said John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, citing his own research and figures from the Office for National Statistics, the London School of Economics and the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. He said the data showed the UK’s trade with the EU had fallen by a fifth because of Brexit. “Brexit has already made Britain poorer compared to a branch of history in which Britain remained in the EU — or indeed in the single market,” he added. IN THE PRESS - BRITAIN'S TRADE DEALS LACK TRANSPARENCYSam Lowe
28 May 2021
The Economist
A more justifiable fear for British farmers, suggests Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, is that the deal becomes a model for bigger future ones with Latin America and the United States. IN THE PRESS - MACRON'S RECIPE FOR FAIR-TRADE FOODSam Lowe
28 May 2021
Politico
Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform, said that while rules relating to the standards of a final product — for example, on food safety — were "fairly well understood, the more tricky issue is rules around processing and production methods."He said that while EU leaders could have some room for maneuver, these kinds of restrictions are "much more difficult to justify in a WTO-compatible manner" and largely dependent on how well the EU playsits trade cards.
IN THE PRESS - AUSSIE FARMERS ARE CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE OF THE NEVER-ENDING BREXIT WARSSam Lowe
26 May 2021
The Telegraph
As Sam Lowe, an even-handed trade expert at the Centre for European Reform, recently wrote: “An Australian deal probably means the UK is going to offer the same to New Zealand. But beyond that – it is not so clear. Lots of countries will want to retain tariffs to shield their own food producers, and it is unlikely that the UK will offer them full tariff free access in the absence of reciprocity.” IN THE PRESS - UK BORROWING FALLS IN APRIL, TO £31.7BN, AS COVID-19 COSTS REMAIN HIGH – BUSINESS LIVEJohn Springford
25 May 2021
The Guardian
The slump in UK-EU goods trade this year shows the impact of Brexit, says John Springford of the Centre for European Reform: The ONS: trade in goods with the EU down 23% in the first quarter of 2021, compared to the first quarter of 2018. IN THE PRESS - AUSTRALIA TRADE DEAL: EDWIN POOTS 'STRONGLY OPPOSES'ZERO TARIFF DEAL
Sam Lowe
22 May 2021
BBC News
Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform, said this is because of the protocol's rules on tariffs. "Imports into Northern Ireland can only make use of the UK's trade deals if the difference between the applied UK tariff and the applied EU tariff is less than 3% of the value of the good. IN THE PRESS - DIE NEUE LUST AM SCHULDENMACHEN – NUR, WOFÜR?John Springford
22 May 2021
Der Spiegel
Jetzt sind die Briten raus – und nach Schätzungen des Center for European Reform (CER) hat das allein in den ersten drei Jahren nach dem Votum zu rund drei Prozent Verlust an Wirtschaftsleistung geführt. Da wären weniger Austerität und mehr Schulden am Anfang womöglich billiger gekommen. IN THE PRESS - UK FARMERS LAUNCH BLISTERING ATTACK ON GOVERNMENT OVER AUSTRALIAN TRADE DEAL AS JOHNSON INSISTS IT'S NOT A THREATSam Lowe
22 May 2021
Politics Home
Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform, said the impact of the proposed trade deal on the British market would be minimal as it was unlikely to lead to a huge increase in meat importsfrom Australia.
The “bigger question,” he said, was whether it was a sign of how the government would approach trade negotiations with bigger economies like the US and Brazil, which will also want greater access to the UK’s agricultural markets.0
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