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COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR ESTONIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Estonia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR THE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United States of America. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR RUSSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Russia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR POLAND Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Poland. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SOUTH AFRICA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in South Africa. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GREECE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Greece. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: GLOBAL SUMMARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Abstract. Background: Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case and death notification data to generate daily estimates of thetime-varying
COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR ESTONIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Estonia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR THE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United States of America. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR RUSSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Russia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR POLAND Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Poland. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SOUTH AFRICA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in South Africa. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GREECE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Greece. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: GLOBAL SUMMARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR POLAND Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Poland. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR DENMARK Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Denmark. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR OHIO (UNITED STATES) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Ohio. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR MICHIGAN (UNITED STATES) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Michigan. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR RAJASTHAN (INDIA) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Rajasthan. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GEORGIA (UNITED STATES) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Georgia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR MISSISSIPPI (UNITED STATES) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Mississippi. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR NEW JERSEY (UNITED STATES) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in New Jersey. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: GLOBAL SUMMARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Abstract. Background: Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case and death notification data to generate daily estimates of thetime-varying
COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR THE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United States of America. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR ESTONIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Estonia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR CROATIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Croatia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GREECE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Greece. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR NEW BRUNSWICK (CANADA) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in New Brunswick. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SOUTH AFRICA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in South Africa. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: GLOBAL SUMMARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Abstract. Background: Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case and death notification data to generate daily estimates of thetime-varying
COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR THE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United States of America. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR ESTONIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Estonia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR CROATIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Croatia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GREECE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Greece. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR NEW BRUNSWICK (CANADA) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in New Brunswick. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SOUTH AFRICA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in South Africa. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.EPIFORECASTS
EpiForecasts. Welcome to EpiForecasts, we produce forecasts of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks in real-time. On this site you can find regularly updated forecasts of some ongoing outbreaks as well as some posts about forecasts we have made during previous outbreaks. To find out more about the team check out our about us page. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR RUSSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Russia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR NEW BRUNSWICK (CANADA) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in New Brunswick. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GREECE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Greece. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR DENMARK Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Denmark. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR POLAND Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Poland. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. ESTIMATE REALTIME CASE COUNTS AND TIME-VARYING Quick start {EpiNow} is designed to be used at scale with few changes to the defaults and a single function call or to be used in an ad-hoc fashion via individual function calls. In the following section we give an overview of the simple use case. For more on using each function see the function documentation and introductory vignette.A working implementation for COVID-19 can be found here. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR THE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United Kingdom. Estimates using test positive cases are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR RAJASTHAN (INDIA) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Rajasthan. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: GLOBAL SUMMARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Abstract. Background: Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case and death notification data to generate daily estimates of thetime-varying
COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR THE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United States of America. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR ESTONIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Estonia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR RUSSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Russia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. ESTIMATE REAL-TIME CASE COUNTS AND TIME-VARYING EpiNow2 is designed to be used with a single function call or to be used in an ad-hoc fashion via individual function calls. The core functions of EpiNow2 are the two single-call functions epinow, regional_epinow, plus functions estimate_infections, and forecast_infections. In the following section we give an overview of the simple use case for COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GREECE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Greece. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SOUTH AFRICA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in South Africa. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: GLOBAL SUMMARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Abstract. Background: Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case and death notification data to generate daily estimates of thetime-varying
COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR THE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United States of America. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR ESTONIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Estonia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR RUSSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Russia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. ESTIMATE REAL-TIME CASE COUNTS AND TIME-VARYING EpiNow2 is designed to be used with a single function call or to be used in an ad-hoc fashion via individual function calls. The core functions of EpiNow2 are the two single-call functions epinow, regional_epinow, plus functions estimate_infections, and forecast_infections. In the following section we give an overview of the simple use case for COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GREECE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Greece. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SOUTH AFRICA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in South Africa. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR RUSSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Russia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.COVID-19: METHODS
Our approach, providing real-time estimates of the reproduction number, serves as a valuable tool for decision makers looking to track the course of COVID-19 outbreaks. The nowcasts explicitly account for delays, using the same methodology across all countries and sub-national regions. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR POLAND Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Poland. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GREECE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Greece. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR INDIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in India. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR MALAYSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Malaysia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR THE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United Kingdom. Estimates using test positive cases are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR BRAZIL Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Brazil. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR RAJASTHAN (INDIA) Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Rajasthan. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.EPIFORECASTS
EpiForecasts. Welcome to EpiForecasts, we produce forecasts of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks in real-time. On this site you can find regularly updated forecasts of some ongoing outbreaks as well as some posts about forecasts we have made during previous outbreaks. To find out more about the team check out our about us page. COVID-19: GLOBAL SUMMARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Abstract. Background: Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case and death notification data to generate daily estimates of thetime-varying
COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR ESTONIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Estonia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR CROATIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Croatia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SWEDEN Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Sweden. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR BELGIUM Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Belgium. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR MALAYSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Malaysia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.EPIFORECASTS
EpiForecasts. Welcome to EpiForecasts, we produce forecasts of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks in real-time. On this site you can find regularly updated forecasts of some ongoing outbreaks as well as some posts about forecasts we have made during previous outbreaks. To find out more about the team check out our about us page. COVID-19: GLOBAL SUMMARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Abstract. Background: Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case and death notification data to generate daily estimates of thetime-varying
COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR ESTONIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Estonia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR CROATIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Croatia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SWEDEN Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Sweden. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR BELGIUM Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Belgium. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR MALAYSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Malaysia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.EPIFORECASTS
EpiForecasts. Welcome to EpiForecasts, we produce forecasts of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks in real-time. On this site you can find regularly updated forecasts of some ongoing outbreaks as well as some posts about forecasts we have made during previous outbreaks. To find out more about the team check out our about us page. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Abstract. Background: Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential for monitoring the epidemic, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions and estimating the impact of changes in policy. Methods: We use case and death notification data to generate daily estimates of thetime-varying
COVID-19: METHODS
Our approach, providing real-time estimates of the reproduction number, serves as a valuable tool for decision makers looking to track the course of COVID-19 outbreaks. The nowcasts explicitly account for delays, using the same methodology across all countries and sub-national regions. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SWEDEN Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Sweden. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GREECE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Greece. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR INDIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in India. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR THE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United Kingdom. Estimates using test positive cases are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR GERMANY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Germany. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction numberEPIFORECASTS
Welcome to EpiForecasts, we produce forecasts of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks in real-time. On this site you can find regularly updated forecasts of some ongoing outbreaks as well as some posts about forecasts we have made during previous outbreaks. COVID-19: GLOBAL SUMMARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Authors: Sam Abbott *, Joel Hellewell *, Robin N Thompson, Katharine Sherratt, Hamish P Gibbs, Nikos I Bosse, James D Munday, Sophie Meakin, Emma L Doughty, June Young Chun, Yung-Wai Desmond Chan, Flavio Finger, Paul Campbell, Akira Endo, Carl A B Pearson, Amy Gimma, Tim Russell, CMMID COVID modelling group, Stefan Flasche, Adam J Kucharski, Rosalind M Eggo, Sebastian Funk COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR ESTONIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Estonia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR CROATIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Croatia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SWEDEN Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Sweden. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR BELGIUM Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Belgium. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR MALAYSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Malaysia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.EPIFORECASTS
Welcome to EpiForecasts, we produce forecasts of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks in real-time. On this site you can find regularly updated forecasts of some ongoing outbreaks as well as some posts about forecasts we have made during previous outbreaks. COVID-19: GLOBAL SUMMARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Authors: Sam Abbott *, Joel Hellewell *, Robin N Thompson, Katharine Sherratt, Hamish P Gibbs, Nikos I Bosse, James D Munday, Sophie Meakin, Emma L Doughty, June Young Chun, Yung-Wai Desmond Chan, Flavio Finger, Paul Campbell, Akira Endo, Carl A B Pearson, Amy Gimma, Tim Russell, CMMID COVID modelling group, Stefan Flasche, Adam J Kucharski, Rosalind M Eggo, Sebastian Funk COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR ESTONIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Estonia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR CROATIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Croatia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SWEDEN Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Sweden. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR BELGIUM Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Belgium. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR MALAYSIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Malaysia. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.EPIFORECASTS
Welcome to EpiForecasts, we produce forecasts of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks in real-time. On this site you can find regularly updated forecasts of some ongoing outbreaks as well as some posts about forecasts we have made during previous outbreaks. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR CANADA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Canada. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: TEMPORAL VARIATION IN TRANSMISSION DURING THE Authors: Sam Abbott *, Joel Hellewell *, Robin N Thompson, Katharine Sherratt, Hamish P Gibbs, Nikos I Bosse, James D Munday, Sophie Meakin, Emma L Doughty, June Young Chun, Yung-Wai Desmond Chan, Flavio Finger, Paul Campbell, Akira Endo, Carl A B Pearson, Amy Gimma, Tim Russell, CMMID COVID modelling group, Stefan Flasche, Adam J Kucharski, Rosalind M Eggo, Sebastian FunkCOVID-19: METHODS
Our methods are also outlined in this preprint.If making use of our estimates or approach, please consider citing this article. Authors: Sam Abbott *, Joel Hellewell *, Robin N Thompson, Katharine Sherratt, Hamish P Gibbs, Nikos I Bosse, James D Munday, Sophie Meakin, Emma L Doughty, June Young Chun, Yung-Wai Desmond Chan, Flavio Finger, Paul Campbell, Akira Endo, Carl A B Pearson, Amy COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR SWEDEN Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Sweden. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR HUNGARY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Hungary. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: ESTIMATES FOR GREECE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting in Greece. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively. COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR INDIA Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in India. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR THE Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United Kingdom. Estimates using test positive cases are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease COVID-19: NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL ESTIMATES FOR GERMANY Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Germany. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number Toggle navigation EpiForecasts* About Us
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------------------------- We forecast infectious disease outbreaks in time and space Welcome to EpiForecasts, we produce forecasts of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks in real-time. On this site you can find regularly updated forecasts of some ongoing outbreaks as well as some posts about forecasts we have made during previous outbreaks. To find out more about the team check out our about us page.* __ __ Email me
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