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ESSAYS · GWERN.NET
Essays · Gwern.net. This is the website of Gwern Branwen. I write about psychology, statistics, and technology. I am best known for work on the darknet markets & Bitcoin , blinded self- experiments , dual n-back & spaced repetition , and anime neural networks . For information about my site’s philosophy & method, see the About HIGH–FREQUENCY NEUROMODULATION IMPROVES OBSESSIVE LETTERS NATURE MEDICINE scale in OCD research26,27.The baseline measurement was taken prior to HD-tACS on the first day. Follow-up measurements were taken on THE PROMISE AND CHALLENGE OF THERAPEUTIC GENOME EDITING Nature | Vol 578 | 13 February 2020 | 229 Review The promise and challenge of therapeutic genome editing Jennifer A. Doudna 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 * Genome editing, which involves the precise manipulation of cellular DNA sequences NEO-DARWINISMSTILLHAUNTSEVOLUTIONARY THEORY PERSPECTIVE doi:10.1111/evo.14268 Neo-darwinismstillhauntsevolutionary theory:Amodernperspectiveon Charlesworth,Lande,andSlatkin(1982) Zachary B. Hancock,1,2,3 Emma S RAPID SEQUENCING-BASED DIAGNOSIS OF THIAMINE METABOLISM The new england journal of medicine n engl j med 384;22 nejm.org June 3, 2021 Correspondence Rapid Sequencing-Based Diagnosis of Thiamine Metabolism Dysfunction Syndrome To the Editor: Approximately 30 years after the start of the Human Genome Project, we se- GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDY OF MORE THAN 40,000 BIPOLAR ARTICLeS https://doi.org/10.1038/s41588-021-00857-4 A full list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper. Genome-wide association study of THE SCAVENGING PATTERNS OF FERAL CATS ON HUMAN REMAINS IN TECHNICAL NOTE ANTHROPOLOGY Sara Garcia,1 B.A.; Alexander Smith,1 B.A.; Christiane Baigent,1 M.Sc.; and Melissa Connor,1 Ph.D. The Scavenging Patterns of Feral Cats on Human Remains in an Outdoor Setting* ABSTRACT: Two cases of feral cat (Felis catus) scavenging were documented at the Forensic Investigation Research Station in Whitewater, Colorado. Human remains at the facility are HIGH CONSANGUINITY PROMOTES INTERGENERATIONAL WEALTH various mutually relevant traits, while minimizing the reproductive costs associated with inbreeding depression. Helgason, Pálsson, Guðbjartsson, and Stefánsson (2008) showed that in the socio-THE BASIC AI DRIVES
The Basic AI Drives Stephen M. OMOHUNDRO Self-Aware Systems, Palo Alto, California Abstract. One might imagine that AI systems with harmless goals will be harmless. A NEO-DARWINIAN COMMENTARY ON MACROEVOLUTION Evolution, 36(3), 1982, pp. 474-498 A NEO-DARWINIANCOMMENTARY ON MACROEVOLUTION BRIAN CHARLESWORTH Population Biology Group,.School of Biological Sciences, IN VIVO CRISPR BASE EDITING OF PCSK9 DURABLY LOWERS Nature | Vol 593 | 20 May 2021 | 429 Article In vivo CRISPR base editing of PCSK9 durably lowers cholesterol in primates Kiran Musunuru1,2,3, Alexandra C. Chadwick4, Taiji Mizoguchi 4, Sara P. Garcia4, Jamie E. DeNizio4, Caroline W. Reiss4, Kui Wang 4, Sowmya Iyer 4, Chaitali Dutta 4, Victoria Clendaniel4, Michael Amaonye 4, Aaron Beach 4, Kathleen Berth 4, Souvik Biswas 4, SIGNALING VIRTUOUS VICTIMHOOD AS INDICATORS OF DARK TRIAD Signaling Virtuous Victimhood as Indicators of Dark Triad Personalities Ekin Ok, Yi Qian, Brendan Strejcek, and Karl Aquino University of British Columbia HIGH–FREQUENCY NEUROMODULATION IMPROVES OBSESSIVE LETTERS NATURE MEDICINE scale in OCD research26,27.The baseline measurement was taken prior to HD-tACS on the first day. Follow-up measurements were taken on WAREHOUSE-SCALE VIDEO ACCELERATION: CO-DESIGN AND Warehouse-Scale Video Acceleration: Co-design and Deployment in the Wild ASPLOS ’21, April 19–23, 2021, Virtual, USA A Plethora of Video Formats: Compressing video iles makes PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION maximize the expected value of terminal utility J U(x) dFTA(x).Assume sufficient hypotheses on U and the set of FTA so that the integral is defined and that furthermore the maximizing allocation A*(U) exists. ONCE-WEEKLY SEMAGLUTIDE IN ADULTS WITH OVERWEIGHT OR OBESITY 2 n engl j med nejm.org The new england journal of medicine O besity is a chronic disease and global public health challenge. 1-3 Obesity can lead to insulin resistance, hyperten-sion, and dyslipidemia,4 is associated with com- plications such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascu- THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING AND DIGITAL ARTICLES NATureHumANBeHAviOur pre-registrationuntenableasageneralsolutiontotheproblemof subjectiveanalyticaldecisions.InthisarticlewearguethatspeciESSAYS - GWERN.NET
Essays - Gwern.net
DOES ACADEMIC RESEARCH DESTROY STOCK RETURN PREDICTABILITY? THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE •VOL. LXXI, NO. 1 FEBRUARY 2016 Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? R. DAVID MCLEAN and JEFFREY PONTIFF∗ ABSTRACT THEEFFECTSOFBACKGROUNDMUSIC ONPRIMARYSCHOOLPUPILS’TASK 116 S.Hallametal. TABLEIII.Percentageaccuracylevelwithandwithoutmusic Withmusic Withoutmusic Mean SD Mean SD Signi”cance Day1 76.9 18.3 73.8 14 NS Day2 71.9 25.1 79 IN VIVO CRISPR BASE EDITING OF PCSK9 DURABLY LOWERS Nature | Vol 593 | 20 May 2021 | 429 Article In vivo CRISPR base editing of PCSK9 durably lowers cholesterol in primates Kiran Musunuru1,2,3, Alexandra C. Chadwick4, Taiji Mizoguchi 4, Sara P. Garcia4, Jamie E. DeNizio4, Caroline W. Reiss4, Kui Wang 4, Sowmya Iyer 4, Chaitali Dutta 4, Victoria Clendaniel4, Michael Amaonye 4, Aaron Beach 4, Kathleen Berth 4, Souvik Biswas 4, SIGNALING VIRTUOUS VICTIMHOOD AS INDICATORS OF DARK TRIAD Signaling Virtuous Victimhood as Indicators of Dark Triad Personalities Ekin Ok, Yi Qian, Brendan Strejcek, and Karl Aquino University of British Columbia HIGH–FREQUENCY NEUROMODULATION IMPROVES OBSESSIVE LETTERS NATURE MEDICINE scale in OCD research26,27.The baseline measurement was taken prior to HD-tACS on the first day. Follow-up measurements were taken on WAREHOUSE-SCALE VIDEO ACCELERATION: CO-DESIGN AND Warehouse-Scale Video Acceleration: Co-design and Deployment in the Wild ASPLOS ’21, April 19–23, 2021, Virtual, USA A Plethora of Video Formats: Compressing video iles makes PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION maximize the expected value of terminal utility J U(x) dFTA(x).Assume sufficient hypotheses on U and the set of FTA so that the integral is defined and that furthermore the maximizing allocation A*(U) exists. ONCE-WEEKLY SEMAGLUTIDE IN ADULTS WITH OVERWEIGHT OR OBESITY 2 n engl j med nejm.org The new england journal of medicine O besity is a chronic disease and global public health challenge. 1-3 Obesity can lead to insulin resistance, hyperten-sion, and dyslipidemia,4 is associated with com- plications such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascu- THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING AND DIGITAL ARTICLES NATureHumANBeHAviOur pre-registrationuntenableasageneralsolutiontotheproblemof subjectiveanalyticaldecisions.InthisarticlewearguethatspeciESSAYS - GWERN.NET
Essays - Gwern.net
DOES ACADEMIC RESEARCH DESTROY STOCK RETURN PREDICTABILITY? THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE •VOL. LXXI, NO. 1 FEBRUARY 2016 Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? R. DAVID MCLEAN and JEFFREY PONTIFF∗ ABSTRACT THEEFFECTSOFBACKGROUNDMUSIC ONPRIMARYSCHOOLPUPILS’TASK 116 S.Hallametal. TABLEIII.Percentageaccuracylevelwithandwithoutmusic Withmusic Withoutmusic Mean SD Mean SD Signi”cance Day1 76.9 18.3 73.8 14 NS Day2 71.9 25.1 79 CHOOSE-YOUR-OWN-ADVENTURE AI DUNGEON GAMES · GWERN.NET A useful variation on AI Dungeon-style (AID) text games would be to turn them into shared public game trees of pre-generated options which the user selects from, Choose-Your-Own-Adventure-book style.. This can dramatically reduce costs as users spend most of their time reading cached output (rarely needing nor wanting to generate brandnew output requiring a NN run), can increase quality as POTENTIAL FOR LARGE-SCALE CO2 REMOVAL VIA ENHANCED ROCK 242 | Nature | Vol 583 | 9 July 2020 Article Potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands David J. Beerling 1 , Euripides P. Kantzas 1, Mark R. Lomas 1, Peter Wade 1, Rafael M. Eufrasio 2, Phil Renforth 3, Binoy Sarkar 4, M. Grace Andrews 5, Rachael H. James 5, Christopher R. Pearce 6, Jean-Francois Mercure 7,8, Hector Pollitt 8,9, Philip B. Holden 10 AUTONOMOUS NAVIGATION OF STRATOSPHERIC BALLOONS USING Nature | Vol 588 | 3 December 2020 | 77 Article Autonomous navigation of stratospheric balloons using reinforcement learning Marc G. Bellemare 1 , Salvatore Candido 3 , Pablo Samuel Castro 1, Jun Gong 3, Marlos C. Machado 1, Subhodeep Moitra 1, Sameera S. Ponda 3 & Ziyu Wang 2 Eiciently navigating a superpressure balloon in the stratosphere 1 requires the THE PROMISE AND CHALLENGE OF THERAPEUTIC GENOME EDITING Nature | Vol 578 | 13 February 2020 | 229 Review The promise and challenge of therapeutic genome editing Jennifer A. Doudna 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 * Genome editing, which involves the precise manipulation of cellular DNA sequences NEO-DARWINISMSTILLHAUNTSEVOLUTIONARY THEORY PERSPECTIVE doi:10.1111/evo.14268 Neo-darwinismstillhauntsevolutionary theory:Amodernperspectiveon Charlesworth,Lande,andSlatkin(1982) Zachary B. Hancock,1,2,3 Emma S RAPID SEQUENCING-BASED DIAGNOSIS OF THIAMINE METABOLISM The new england journal of medicine n engl j med 384;22 nejm.org June 3, 2021 Correspondence Rapid Sequencing-Based Diagnosis of Thiamine Metabolism Dysfunction Syndrome To the Editor: Approximately 30 years after the start of the Human Genome Project, we se- GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDY OF MORE THAN 40,000 BIPOLAR ARTICLeS https://doi.org/10.1038/s41588-021-00857-4 A full list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper. Genome-wide association study of HIGH CONSANGUINITY PROMOTES INTERGENERATIONAL WEALTH various mutually relevant traits, while minimizing the reproductive costs associated with inbreeding depression. Helgason, Pálsson, Guðbjartsson, and Stefánsson (2008) showed that in the socio- A NEO-DARWINIAN COMMENTARY ON MACROEVOLUTION Evolution, 36(3), 1982, pp. 474-498 A NEO-DARWINIANCOMMENTARY ON MACROEVOLUTION BRIAN CHARLESWORTH Population Biology Group,.School of Biological Sciences, LEARNING FROM COARSE INFORMATION: BIASED CONTESTS AND 16 REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES that the optimal learning strategy can reinforce the effects of these differences: early success can be even more strongly associated IN VIVO CRISPR BASE EDITING OF PCSK9 DURABLY LOWERS Nature | Vol 593 | 20 May 2021 | 429 Article In vivo CRISPR base editing of PCSK9 durably lowers cholesterol in primates Kiran Musunuru1,2,3, Alexandra C. Chadwick4, Taiji Mizoguchi 4, Sara P. Garcia4, Jamie E. DeNizio4, Caroline W. Reiss4, Kui Wang 4, Sowmya Iyer 4, Chaitali Dutta 4, Victoria Clendaniel4, Michael Amaonye 4, Aaron Beach 4, Kathleen Berth 4, Souvik Biswas 4, SIGNALING VIRTUOUS VICTIMHOOD AS INDICATORS OF DARK TRIAD Signaling Virtuous Victimhood as Indicators of Dark Triad Personalities Ekin Ok, Yi Qian, Brendan Strejcek, and Karl Aquino University of British Columbia HIGH–FREQUENCY NEUROMODULATION IMPROVES OBSESSIVE LETTERS NATURE MEDICINE scale in OCD research26,27.The baseline measurement was taken prior to HD-tACS on the first day. Follow-up measurements were taken on WAREHOUSE-SCALE VIDEO ACCELERATION: CO-DESIGN AND Warehouse-Scale Video Acceleration: Co-design and Deployment in the Wild ASPLOS ’21, April 19–23, 2021, Virtual, USA A Plethora of Video Formats: Compressing video iles makes PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION maximize the expected value of terminal utility J U(x) dFTA(x).Assume sufficient hypotheses on U and the set of FTA so that the integral is defined and that furthermore the maximizing allocation A*(U) exists. ONCE-WEEKLY SEMAGLUTIDE IN ADULTS WITH OVERWEIGHT OR OBESITY 2 n engl j med nejm.org The new england journal of medicine O besity is a chronic disease and global public health challenge. 1-3 Obesity can lead to insulin resistance, hyperten-sion, and dyslipidemia,4 is associated with com- plications such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascu- THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING AND DIGITAL ARTICLES NATureHumANBeHAviOur pre-registrationuntenableasageneralsolutiontotheproblemof subjectiveanalyticaldecisions.InthisarticlewearguethatspeciESSAYS - GWERN.NET
Essays - Gwern.net
DOES ACADEMIC RESEARCH DESTROY STOCK RETURN PREDICTABILITY? THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE •VOL. LXXI, NO. 1 FEBRUARY 2016 Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? R. DAVID MCLEAN and JEFFREY PONTIFF∗ ABSTRACT THEEFFECTSOFBACKGROUNDMUSIC ONPRIMARYSCHOOLPUPILS’TASK 116 S.Hallametal. TABLEIII.Percentageaccuracylevelwithandwithoutmusic Withmusic Withoutmusic Mean SD Mean SD Signi”cance Day1 76.9 18.3 73.8 14 NS Day2 71.9 25.1 79 IN VIVO CRISPR BASE EDITING OF PCSK9 DURABLY LOWERS Nature | Vol 593 | 20 May 2021 | 429 Article In vivo CRISPR base editing of PCSK9 durably lowers cholesterol in primates Kiran Musunuru1,2,3, Alexandra C. Chadwick4, Taiji Mizoguchi 4, Sara P. Garcia4, Jamie E. DeNizio4, Caroline W. Reiss4, Kui Wang 4, Sowmya Iyer 4, Chaitali Dutta 4, Victoria Clendaniel4, Michael Amaonye 4, Aaron Beach 4, Kathleen Berth 4, Souvik Biswas 4, SIGNALING VIRTUOUS VICTIMHOOD AS INDICATORS OF DARK TRIAD Signaling Virtuous Victimhood as Indicators of Dark Triad Personalities Ekin Ok, Yi Qian, Brendan Strejcek, and Karl Aquino University of British Columbia HIGH–FREQUENCY NEUROMODULATION IMPROVES OBSESSIVE LETTERS NATURE MEDICINE scale in OCD research26,27.The baseline measurement was taken prior to HD-tACS on the first day. Follow-up measurements were taken on WAREHOUSE-SCALE VIDEO ACCELERATION: CO-DESIGN AND Warehouse-Scale Video Acceleration: Co-design and Deployment in the Wild ASPLOS ’21, April 19–23, 2021, Virtual, USA A Plethora of Video Formats: Compressing video iles makes PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION maximize the expected value of terminal utility J U(x) dFTA(x).Assume sufficient hypotheses on U and the set of FTA so that the integral is defined and that furthermore the maximizing allocation A*(U) exists. ONCE-WEEKLY SEMAGLUTIDE IN ADULTS WITH OVERWEIGHT OR OBESITY 2 n engl j med nejm.org The new england journal of medicine O besity is a chronic disease and global public health challenge. 1-3 Obesity can lead to insulin resistance, hyperten-sion, and dyslipidemia,4 is associated with com- plications such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascu- THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING AND DIGITAL ARTICLES NATureHumANBeHAviOur pre-registrationuntenableasageneralsolutiontotheproblemof subjectiveanalyticaldecisions.InthisarticlewearguethatspeciESSAYS - GWERN.NET
Essays - Gwern.net
DOES ACADEMIC RESEARCH DESTROY STOCK RETURN PREDICTABILITY? THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE •VOL. LXXI, NO. 1 FEBRUARY 2016 Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? R. DAVID MCLEAN and JEFFREY PONTIFF∗ ABSTRACT THEEFFECTSOFBACKGROUNDMUSIC ONPRIMARYSCHOOLPUPILS’TASK 116 S.Hallametal. TABLEIII.Percentageaccuracylevelwithandwithoutmusic Withmusic Withoutmusic Mean SD Mean SD Signi”cance Day1 76.9 18.3 73.8 14 NS Day2 71.9 25.1 79 CHOOSE-YOUR-OWN-ADVENTURE AI DUNGEON GAMES · GWERN.NET A useful variation on AI Dungeon-style (AID) text games would be to turn them into shared public game trees of pre-generated options which the user selects from, Choose-Your-Own-Adventure-book style.. This can dramatically reduce costs as users spend most of their time reading cached output (rarely needing nor wanting to generate brandnew output requiring a NN run), can increase quality as POTENTIAL FOR LARGE-SCALE CO2 REMOVAL VIA ENHANCED ROCK 242 | Nature | Vol 583 | 9 July 2020 Article Potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands David J. Beerling 1 , Euripides P. Kantzas 1, Mark R. Lomas 1, Peter Wade 1, Rafael M. Eufrasio 2, Phil Renforth 3, Binoy Sarkar 4, M. Grace Andrews 5, Rachael H. James 5, Christopher R. Pearce 6, Jean-Francois Mercure 7,8, Hector Pollitt 8,9, Philip B. Holden 10 AUTONOMOUS NAVIGATION OF STRATOSPHERIC BALLOONS USING Nature | Vol 588 | 3 December 2020 | 77 Article Autonomous navigation of stratospheric balloons using reinforcement learning Marc G. Bellemare 1 , Salvatore Candido 3 , Pablo Samuel Castro 1, Jun Gong 3, Marlos C. Machado 1, Subhodeep Moitra 1, Sameera S. Ponda 3 & Ziyu Wang 2 Eiciently navigating a superpressure balloon in the stratosphere 1 requires the THE PROMISE AND CHALLENGE OF THERAPEUTIC GENOME EDITING Nature | Vol 578 | 13 February 2020 | 229 Review The promise and challenge of therapeutic genome editing Jennifer A. Doudna 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 * Genome editing, which involves the precise manipulation of cellular DNA sequences NEO-DARWINISMSTILLHAUNTSEVOLUTIONARY THEORY PERSPECTIVE doi:10.1111/evo.14268 Neo-darwinismstillhauntsevolutionary theory:Amodernperspectiveon Charlesworth,Lande,andSlatkin(1982) Zachary B. Hancock,1,2,3 Emma S RAPID SEQUENCING-BASED DIAGNOSIS OF THIAMINE METABOLISM The new england journal of medicine n engl j med 384;22 nejm.org June 3, 2021 Correspondence Rapid Sequencing-Based Diagnosis of Thiamine Metabolism Dysfunction Syndrome To the Editor: Approximately 30 years after the start of the Human Genome Project, we se- GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDY OF MORE THAN 40,000 BIPOLAR ARTICLeS https://doi.org/10.1038/s41588-021-00857-4 A full list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper. Genome-wide association study of HIGH CONSANGUINITY PROMOTES INTERGENERATIONAL WEALTH various mutually relevant traits, while minimizing the reproductive costs associated with inbreeding depression. Helgason, Pálsson, Guðbjartsson, and Stefánsson (2008) showed that in the socio- A NEO-DARWINIAN COMMENTARY ON MACROEVOLUTION Evolution, 36(3), 1982, pp. 474-498 A NEO-DARWINIANCOMMENTARY ON MACROEVOLUTION BRIAN CHARLESWORTH Population Biology Group,.School of Biological Sciences, LEARNING FROM COARSE INFORMATION: BIASED CONTESTS AND 16 REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES that the optimal learning strategy can reinforce the effects of these differences: early success can be even more strongly associated IN VIVO CRISPR BASE EDITING OF PCSK9 DURABLY LOWERS Nature | Vol 593 | 20 May 2021 | 429 Article In vivo CRISPR base editing of PCSK9 durably lowers cholesterol in primates Kiran Musunuru1,2,3, Alexandra C. Chadwick4, Taiji Mizoguchi 4, Sara P. Garcia4, Jamie E. DeNizio4, Caroline W. Reiss4, Kui Wang 4, Sowmya Iyer 4, Chaitali Dutta 4, Victoria Clendaniel4, Michael Amaonye 4, Aaron Beach 4, Kathleen Berth 4, Souvik Biswas 4, SIGNALING VIRTUOUS VICTIMHOOD AS INDICATORS OF DARK TRIAD Signaling Virtuous Victimhood as Indicators of Dark Triad Personalities Ekin Ok, Yi Qian, Brendan Strejcek, and Karl Aquino University of British Columbia HIGH–FREQUENCY NEUROMODULATION IMPROVES OBSESSIVE LETTERS NATURE MEDICINE scale in OCD research26,27.The baseline measurement was taken prior to HD-tACS on the first day. Follow-up measurements were taken on WAREHOUSE-SCALE VIDEO ACCELERATION: CO-DESIGN AND Warehouse-Scale Video Acceleration: Co-design and Deployment in the Wild ASPLOS ’21, April 19–23, 2021, Virtual, USA A Plethora of Video Formats: Compressing video iles makes PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION maximize the expected value of terminal utility J U(x) dFTA(x).Assume sufficient hypotheses on U and the set of FTA so that the integral is defined and that furthermore the maximizing allocation A*(U) exists. ONCE-WEEKLY SEMAGLUTIDE IN ADULTS WITH OVERWEIGHT OR OBESITY 2 n engl j med nejm.org The new england journal of medicine O besity is a chronic disease and global public health challenge. 1-3 Obesity can lead to insulin resistance, hyperten-sion, and dyslipidemia,4 is associated with com- plications such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascu- THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING AND DIGITAL ARTICLES NATureHumANBeHAviOur pre-registrationuntenableasageneralsolutiontotheproblemof subjectiveanalyticaldecisions.InthisarticlewearguethatspeciESSAYS - GWERN.NET
Essays - Gwern.net
DOES ACADEMIC RESEARCH DESTROY STOCK RETURN PREDICTABILITY? THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE •VOL. LXXI, NO. 1 FEBRUARY 2016 Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? R. DAVID MCLEAN and JEFFREY PONTIFF∗ ABSTRACT THEEFFECTSOFBACKGROUNDMUSIC ONPRIMARYSCHOOLPUPILS’TASK 116 S.Hallametal. TABLEIII.Percentageaccuracylevelwithandwithoutmusic Withmusic Withoutmusic Mean SD Mean SD Signi”cance Day1 76.9 18.3 73.8 14 NS Day2 71.9 25.1 79 IN VIVO CRISPR BASE EDITING OF PCSK9 DURABLY LOWERS Nature | Vol 593 | 20 May 2021 | 429 Article In vivo CRISPR base editing of PCSK9 durably lowers cholesterol in primates Kiran Musunuru1,2,3, Alexandra C. Chadwick4, Taiji Mizoguchi 4, Sara P. Garcia4, Jamie E. DeNizio4, Caroline W. Reiss4, Kui Wang 4, Sowmya Iyer 4, Chaitali Dutta 4, Victoria Clendaniel4, Michael Amaonye 4, Aaron Beach 4, Kathleen Berth 4, Souvik Biswas 4, SIGNALING VIRTUOUS VICTIMHOOD AS INDICATORS OF DARK TRIAD Signaling Virtuous Victimhood as Indicators of Dark Triad Personalities Ekin Ok, Yi Qian, Brendan Strejcek, and Karl Aquino University of British Columbia HIGH–FREQUENCY NEUROMODULATION IMPROVES OBSESSIVE LETTERS NATURE MEDICINE scale in OCD research26,27.The baseline measurement was taken prior to HD-tACS on the first day. Follow-up measurements were taken on WAREHOUSE-SCALE VIDEO ACCELERATION: CO-DESIGN AND Warehouse-Scale Video Acceleration: Co-design and Deployment in the Wild ASPLOS ’21, April 19–23, 2021, Virtual, USA A Plethora of Video Formats: Compressing video iles makes PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION maximize the expected value of terminal utility J U(x) dFTA(x).Assume sufficient hypotheses on U and the set of FTA so that the integral is defined and that furthermore the maximizing allocation A*(U) exists. ONCE-WEEKLY SEMAGLUTIDE IN ADULTS WITH OVERWEIGHT OR OBESITY 2 n engl j med nejm.org The new england journal of medicine O besity is a chronic disease and global public health challenge. 1-3 Obesity can lead to insulin resistance, hyperten-sion, and dyslipidemia,4 is associated with com- plications such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascu- THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING AND DIGITAL ARTICLES NATureHumANBeHAviOur pre-registrationuntenableasageneralsolutiontotheproblemof subjectiveanalyticaldecisions.InthisarticlewearguethatspeciESSAYS - GWERN.NET
Essays - Gwern.net
DOES ACADEMIC RESEARCH DESTROY STOCK RETURN PREDICTABILITY? THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE •VOL. LXXI, NO. 1 FEBRUARY 2016 Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? R. DAVID MCLEAN and JEFFREY PONTIFF∗ ABSTRACT THEEFFECTSOFBACKGROUNDMUSIC ONPRIMARYSCHOOLPUPILS’TASK 116 S.Hallametal. TABLEIII.Percentageaccuracylevelwithandwithoutmusic Withmusic Withoutmusic Mean SD Mean SD Signi”cance Day1 76.9 18.3 73.8 14 NS Day2 71.9 25.1 79 CHOOSE-YOUR-OWN-ADVENTURE AI DUNGEON GAMES · GWERN.NET A useful variation on AI Dungeon-style (AID) text games would be to turn them into shared public game trees of pre-generated options which the user selects from, Choose-Your-Own-Adventure-book style.. This can dramatically reduce costs as users spend most of their time reading cached output (rarely needing nor wanting to generate brandnew output requiring a NN run), can increase quality as POTENTIAL FOR LARGE-SCALE CO2 REMOVAL VIA ENHANCED ROCK 242 | Nature | Vol 583 | 9 July 2020 Article Potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands David J. Beerling 1 , Euripides P. Kantzas 1, Mark R. Lomas 1, Peter Wade 1, Rafael M. Eufrasio 2, Phil Renforth 3, Binoy Sarkar 4, M. Grace Andrews 5, Rachael H. James 5, Christopher R. Pearce 6, Jean-Francois Mercure 7,8, Hector Pollitt 8,9, Philip B. Holden 10 AUTONOMOUS NAVIGATION OF STRATOSPHERIC BALLOONS USING Nature | Vol 588 | 3 December 2020 | 77 Article Autonomous navigation of stratospheric balloons using reinforcement learning Marc G. Bellemare 1 , Salvatore Candido 3 , Pablo Samuel Castro 1, Jun Gong 3, Marlos C. Machado 1, Subhodeep Moitra 1, Sameera S. Ponda 3 & Ziyu Wang 2 Eiciently navigating a superpressure balloon in the stratosphere 1 requires the THE PROMISE AND CHALLENGE OF THERAPEUTIC GENOME EDITING Nature | Vol 578 | 13 February 2020 | 229 Review The promise and challenge of therapeutic genome editing Jennifer A. Doudna 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 * Genome editing, which involves the precise manipulation of cellular DNA sequences NEO-DARWINISMSTILLHAUNTSEVOLUTIONARY THEORY PERSPECTIVE doi:10.1111/evo.14268 Neo-darwinismstillhauntsevolutionary theory:Amodernperspectiveon Charlesworth,Lande,andSlatkin(1982) Zachary B. Hancock,1,2,3 Emma S RAPID SEQUENCING-BASED DIAGNOSIS OF THIAMINE METABOLISM The new england journal of medicine n engl j med 384;22 nejm.org June 3, 2021 Correspondence Rapid Sequencing-Based Diagnosis of Thiamine Metabolism Dysfunction Syndrome To the Editor: Approximately 30 years after the start of the Human Genome Project, we se- GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDY OF MORE THAN 40,000 BIPOLAR ARTICLeS https://doi.org/10.1038/s41588-021-00857-4 A full list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper. Genome-wide association study of HIGH CONSANGUINITY PROMOTES INTERGENERATIONAL WEALTH various mutually relevant traits, while minimizing the reproductive costs associated with inbreeding depression. Helgason, Pálsson, Guðbjartsson, and Stefánsson (2008) showed that in the socio- A NEO-DARWINIAN COMMENTARY ON MACROEVOLUTION Evolution, 36(3), 1982, pp. 474-498 A NEO-DARWINIANCOMMENTARY ON MACROEVOLUTION BRIAN CHARLESWORTH Population Biology Group,.School of Biological Sciences, LEARNING FROM COARSE INFORMATION: BIASED CONTESTS AND 16 REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES that the optimal learning strategy can reinforce the effects of these differences: early success can be even more strongly associated Site Me Changes Newssupport on
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This is the website of GWERN BRANWEN. I write about psychology, statistics, and technology. I am best known for work on the darknet markets & Bitcoin , blinded self-experiments , dual n-back & spaced repetition , and anime neural networks.
For information about my site’s philosophy & method, see the _About page _; for the website features & implementation, see the _Design page _; for information about myself, my use of other websites, and contact information, see the _Links page _; for information about new pages, see the _Changelog _; to receive updates, news, & reviews, _subscribe _ to the newsletter (archives).
NEWEST
* April 2021 newsletter * Rarer Greek Variables to Use * March 2021 newsletter * February 2021 newsletter * January 2021 newsletter * Danbooru2020: Tagged Anime Dataset * December 2020 newsletter * November 2020 newsletter * On Development Hell * October 2020 newsletter * Sidenotes In Web Design * GPT-3 & The Scaling Hypothesis * GPT-3 Fiction / Nonfiction * PALM Anime Hands Model/Dataset * Holy Wars are Coordination ProblemsPOPULAR
* Silk Road 1: Theory & Practice * DNM Archives (2013–2015) * DNM Arrests (2011–2015)* Modafinil
* LSD microdosing self-experiment * Zeo sleep self-experiments* Dual N-Back FAQ
* Spaced repetition
* _Death Note_: L, Anonymity & Entropy * Commoditize Your Complement * Google survival analysis * Banner Ads Considered Harmful * This Waifu Does Not Exist(details )
* Neural Net Tank Urban Legend * Time-lock cryptography* Archiving URLs
* Terrorism is not about Terror * Melancholy of Subculture SocietyNOTABLE
* The Scaling Hypothesis * Why Correlation ≠ Causation * When Should I Check The Mail? * Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs * Complexity no Bar to AI * Making Anime Faces with Neural Nets * _Death Note_ script authenticity * The Existential Risk of Math Errors * Iodine & Adult IQ meta-analysis * The Melancholy of Kyon * In Defense of Wikipedia Inclusionism * Bitcoin is Worse is Better -------------------------STATISTICS
* Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation * When Does The Mail Come? Decision Analysis * Predicting Google service closures * Predicting & Prediction Markets * Banner Ads Considered Harmful (Here) * How To Critique Research? * Judging the 2012 election forecasters * Candy Japan’s new-box A/B test * Interactively Resorting Lists * Google Alerts Over Time * Expected Maximum of Gaussians * Everything Is Correlated * Multi-Stage Selection JS Demo * Power of Twins: the Milk Experiment * _Genius Revisited_: High-IQ School Flaws * Modeling fiction review rates * Modeling fiction drop rates * LW Effective Altruism donations, 2013–2014* Miscellaneous
CRYPTO/BITCOIN
* Time-lock encryption * Bitcoin is Worse is Better * A Silk Road 1 Guide* DNM census
* DNM archives (2013–2015) * DNM arrests (2011–2015) * Timestamping with BitcoinAI
*
DANBOORU2020 Anime Dataset * PALM: Hand Detection+Crops* Figures
* Portraits
* Making Anime Faces with Neural Nets*
GPT-3 & The Scaling Hypothesis*
NEURAL NET POEMS: RNN , GPT-2 , GPT-3*
GPT-3 Creative Nonfiction*
Tool AIs Want To Be Agent AIs*
Kelly Coin-Flip Game: Solutions*
Evolution as Backstop for Learning*
Complexity no Bar to AI*
The Neural Net Tank Urban Legend*
This Waifu Does Not Exist(details )
*
GPT-2 Folk Music
*
Preference learning GPT-2 music*
Hyperbolic Time Chambers as Brain EmsCS
* Surprisingly Turing-Complete * The Hacker Mindset: Seeing Through* Archiving URLs
* The sort --key Trick * A/B testing CSS & HTML * Internet WiFi improvement * Haskell Summer of Code* The 3 Grenades
* Archiving GitHub
* How Many Computers In Your Computer? * Simulation inferences* Choosing Software
* Wikipedia Archive Bot* WP RSS bot
* Resilient Haskell Software * Evolutionary Licenses * Elegant Run Length Encoding * Rarer Greek Variables to Use -------------------------PSYCHOLOGY
*
Spaced Repetition & Learning*
Dual N-Back FAQ (meta-analysis )*
Embryo selection for intelligence*
CATNIP:
* Response rate meta-analysis* Surveys
*
Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?*
Iodine IQ meta-analysis*
SMPY Bibliography
*
Conscientiousness & Online Schools*
Bakewell’s Invention of Breeding*
Dog Cloning For Special Forces*
Open Questions
*
What is the morning-writing effect?*
Good Owners? Cat Psychology & Domestication(earwax )
*
The Replication Crisis*
Leprechaun Hunting & Citogenesis*
Hydrocephalus & IQ
*
Does Mouse Utopia Exist?*
The Collecting Mindset*
Progress In Beauty
QS
*
SLEEP:
*
Melatonin
*
Modafinil
*
Self-experiments :
* Caffeine
* Potassium
* Redshift
* Vitamin D
* ZMA
*
Wooden pillows
*
Lunar circadian rhythms*
Nootropics experiments*
LSD microdosing
*
Creatine cognition meta-analysis*
Lithium in ground-water review*
Blind Mineral Water Taste Test*
Spirulina allergy experiment*
Bitter melon blood-glucose experiment*
Meditation & math errors*
Weather & Mood
*
Treadmill memory & typing experiment*
Bacopa quasi-experimentPRACTICAL
*
Commoditize Your Complement*
Evolutionary Heuristics for Drugs*
Internet Search Tips*
Timing Tech: Media Lab Lessons* DARPA & SCI
* The Garden of Forking Paths*
Sidenotes For Web Design*
Rubrication Design Examples*
Ordinary Life Improvements*
Girl Scouts & Good Governance*
Plastination vs Cryonics*
Console Insurance
*
On Having Enough Socks*
Who Buys Fonts?
-------------------------POLITICS
* The Melancholy of Subculture Society * Terrorism is not about Terror * Terrorism is not Effective * Moore’s law & chip fabs * Littlewood’s Law & the Global Media (origin of law)
* Colder Wars
PHILOSOPHY
* Existential Risks & Math Errors * On Powerful Natural Languages * The Narrowing Circle * One Man’s Modus Ponens… * Culture is not about Esthetics * Newton’s System of the World & Comets * On Subscripting Citations * Ontological pantheism * An Abortion Dialogue* On Disrespect
* Justifications
* Against The Miletians* Copyright
* Immoral Books
* Isomorphisms
-------------------------FICTION
*
PROSE:
* The Gift of the Amygdali* The Erl King
* The Ones Who Walk Towards Acre* Missing Cities
* Men of Iron
* Gilles Goullet, Author of _Blindsight_ * How the Panther got Black * The Palace of Wonders* _Cloud Nine_
* The Last Muezzin
* _Dinosaur Comics_ comics * The Buddha’s Wheel*
VERSE:
* Poems
* Brave poem
* Dying Outside
* Poems on the theme of _Genshiken_* Safecracker
* Hybrid Rainbow
LITERARY CRITICISM
* “Story Of Your Life” Is Not Time-Travel ; Bakker’s _Second Apocalypse_ * Genetics & Eugenics in Herbert’s _Dune_ ; in_My Little Pony_
* On Wolfe’s “Suzanne Delage” * “Scanners Live in Vain” as realistic SF* The Mulberry Tree
* The Snowbanks of TimeANIME
*
The Melancholy of Kyon*
_DEATH NOTE_:
* L, Anonymity & Eluding Entropy * Who Wrote The Movie?* On The Ending
*
_My Little Pony_: Immanetizing The Equestrian*
Hafu Gender Ratios in Anime*
_Aria_’s past, present, & future*
_FMP_ parody
*
“Komm Susser Tod” -------------------------DOCS
*
browse doc directory indices*
_Radiance_ (Scholz)*
_Metamagical Themas_: “Sanity & Survival”(Hofstadter)
*
“The Iron Law of Evaluation & Other Metallic Rules”(Rossi)
*
John Nash on cryptography & P = NP (1955)*
“Ups & Downs of Hope Function In Fruitless Search”*
Wei Dai & Satoshi Nakamoto Bitcoin emails*
“Bitcoin & its mysterious inventor”*
“Shiny balls of Mud” (Gibson)*
“The Sword of Achilles” (Asimov)*
_Drugs 2.0_: “Your Crack’s in the Post”(Power)
*
2014 Jed McCaleb MtGox interview*
The Rotten Library archives*
IAPAC Norvir™ vanishing-polymorph archives*
OKCupid blog archives*
“Climb Mount Improbable”*
“Even More Aphorisms & 10-Second Essays”(Richardson)
*
Research Bounties On Documents*
GENE WOLFE:
* “Nor the Summers as Golden: Writing Multivolume Works” * “Loyal to the Group of Seventeen’s Story—The Just Man”ANIME DOCS
* _Evangelion_ sources anthology * _The Notenki Memoirs_(Takeda)
* _NGE 2.0 Complete Records Collection (CRC)_ * “Conscience of the Otaking”(Okada)
* “Gainax translator Michael House interview” * 1996 Hideaki Anno interview * 1997 Hideaki Anno interview(French
)
* “Talk About RahXephon” * “Special Talk: Yutaka Izubuchi × Hideaki Anno” * “Otaku Talk” (Okada, Morikawa etc) * “Earth in My Window” (Murakami) * _Utena_ 2011 Boxset Commentary * “Little Boy” (Murakami) * “On The Battlefield of ‘Superflat’”(Sawaragi)
* “Ero-Anime: Manga Comes Alive”(Sarrazin)
-------------------------WIKIPEDIA
* In Defense Of Inclusionism * Wikipedia & Darkside Editing * Wikipedia & Other Wikis * Wikipedia & YouTube* Wikipedia & Knol
* My Wikipedia articlesNOTES
* Efficient Attention in Transformers * Your Computer Is Faster Than You Think * Machine Learning Scaling * End-to-End Principle * Fully-Connected Neural Networks * Neural Nets Are Overparameterized * Copyright Deadweight Losses * Local Optima & Greedy Choices * The Effectiveness of Unreasonable Small Groups * Ordinary Incompetence * Automation As Colonization Wave * Trustless Trade: Exploding Nash Equilibrium * Frank P. Ramsey Bibliography * The Lizardman Constant * Political Fashions * Parasocial Relationships Online * Best of _Abandoned Footnotes_ * Ethicists’ Ethics* IQ/Income
* Anne Roe’s Studies of Eminent Scientists * Emergenesis: Genetics of Genius? * Fermi Problem Examples * Leaky Pipeline/Log-normals * Regression To The Mean Fallacies * Variance Components Beyond Genetics * On The Intelligence of _Portia_ Jumping Spiders * Falling & Head Injuries * John Bjorksten Aging BibliographyPERSONAL
*
About , Links , newsletter archives*
Notes
*
REVIEWS:
* Book : _The Cultural Revolution_, _Umineko_ ,
_McNamara’s Folly_* Movie
* Anime
*
Epigrams
*
Tea reviews
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