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ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE Making facemasks: a step-by-step guide. April 2, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. You’ll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5″ pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips ofcloth
DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING Diabetics potentially have a LOT to lose by using hydroxychloroquine. April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has MEASURING HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Measuring historical volatility. July 24, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Say we are trying to estimate risk on a stock or a portfolio of stocks. For the purpose of this discussion, let’s say we’d like to know how far up or down we might expect to see a price move in one day. First we need to decide how to measure the upness or downness ofthe
GERRYMANDERING ALGORITHMS I've been thinking about gerrymandering recently, specifically how to design algorithms to gerrymander and to detect gerrymandering. Whence "Gerrymander"? First thing's first. According to wikipedia (and my friend Michael Thaddeus), the term "Gerrymander" is a mash-up of a dude named Elbridge Gerry and the word "salamander." It was concocted when Gerry got made fun of forWHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE Making facemasks: a step-by-step guide. April 2, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. You’ll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5″ pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips ofcloth
DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING Diabetics potentially have a LOT to lose by using hydroxychloroquine. April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has MEASURING HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Measuring historical volatility. July 24, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Say we are trying to estimate risk on a stock or a portfolio of stocks. For the purpose of this discussion, let’s say we’d like to know how far up or down we might expect to see a price move in one day. First we need to decide how to measure the upness or downness ofthe
GERRYMANDERING ALGORITHMS I've been thinking about gerrymandering recently, specifically how to design algorithms to gerrymander and to detect gerrymandering. Whence "Gerrymander"? First thing's first. According to wikipedia (and my friend Michael Thaddeus), the term "Gerrymander" is a mash-up of a dude named Elbridge Gerry and the word "salamander." It was concocted when Gerry got made fun of forWHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
P-VALUES AND POWER IN STATISTICAL TESTS P-values and power in statistical tests. November 24, 2014 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Today I’m going to do my best to explain Andrew Gelman’s recent intriguing post on his blog for the sake of non-statisticians including myself (hat tip Catalina Bertani). If you are a statistician, and especially if you are Andrew Gelman, please docorrect me
WHY IS MATH RESEARCH IMPORTANT? 2) Continuing math research is important because it is beautiful. It is an art form, and more than that, an ancient and collaborative art form, performed by an entire community. Seen in this light it is one of the crowning achievements of our civilization. WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD The criminal acts cited here, are reason enough why Larry Summers shouldn’t be appointed head of anything, let alone the World Bank. Unfortunately, the Harvard fiasco is just one in a long line of misdeeds that can be attributed to Mr. Summers.HCSSIM 2012
I was a senior staff member at the HCSSiM program in 2012, where I taught a workshop for the first half of the program, so 17 lectures, with my awesome junior staff Elizabeth Campolongo, Maxwell Levit, and Josh Vekhter. I also gave a prime time theorem talk on the game ofNim. I also wrote
ANALEMMA | MATHBABE
Analemma. June 30, 2012 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Today is a day of new things, since I finished my last day at my job yesterday and I’m going to math camp tomorrow. It’s exciting, and I’m going to kick off this first day of new things with a silly but fun thing I recently learned about the earth and the sun. Some people know this already CONSERVATION LAW OF MONEY Conservation Law of Money. Being a mathematician, I’ve always been on the lookout for quantitative statements about the financial system as a whole that explain large economic phenomena. Just for the satisfaction of it all. For example, I think it’s possible that many bubbles (dot com, Japanese stocks) can be explained simply by sayingthat
MICROFINANCE IS MOSTLY A SCAM Microfinance is mostly a scam. I might be well behind others on this subject, but I’m trying to catch up. I just finished a book entitled Confessions of a Microfinance Heretic: how microfinance lost its way and betrayed the poor, written by Hugh Sinclair. Published in 2012, it reviews the previous decade or so of microfinance institutions and SHOULD SHORT SELLING BE BANNED? Yesterday it was announced that the short selling ban in France, Italy, and Spain for financial stocks would be continued; there's also an indefinite short selling ban in Belgium. What is this and does it make sense? Short selling is mathematically equivalent to buying the negative of a stock. To see the actual mechanics of how IS A $100,000 PENSION OUTRAGEOUS? There are lots of stories coming out recently about how public workers, typically police or firefighters, are retiring with "outrageous" pensions of $100,000. Here's one from the Atlantic. From the article: That doesn't frustrate Maviglio, who insists that "people who put their lives on the line every day deserve a secure retirement." But do they "deserve" KEN RIBET’S LOVE NOTE FROM SERGE LANG Ken Ribet’s love note from Serge Lang. January 3, 2012 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post from Ken Ribet, a story about one of my favorite people, Serge Lang. Crossposted from Facebook. There’s a long story about this page, and I might as well tell it here. I uploaded this image because one of my Facebook friends asked me aboutit
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS This is a guest post by Aise O’Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration.Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.”. But it’s not just rightwing cranks who areABOUT | MATHBABE
Cathy O'Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, "what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?" If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil at gmail dot com. IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE You'll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5" pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips of cloth instead) A sewing machine Good scissors Crochet needle and DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has been a Mathematics professor, a visiting scientist at IBM's Watson Labs and a programdirector
GERRYMANDERING ALGORITHMS I've been thinking about gerrymandering recently, specifically how to design algorithms to gerrymander and to detect gerrymandering. Whence "Gerrymander"? First thing's first. According to wikipedia (and my friend Michael Thaddeus), the term "Gerrymander" is a mash-up of a dude named Elbridge Gerry and the word "salamander." It was concocted when Gerry got made fun of for MEASURING HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Say we are trying to estimate risk on a stock or a portfolio of stocks. For the purpose of this discussion, let's say we'd like to know how far up or down we might expect to see a price move in one day. First we need to decide how to measure the upness or downnessWHY LOG RETURNS?
There’s a nice blog post here by Quantivity which explains why we choose to define market returns using the log function:. where denotes price on day .. I mentioned this question briefly in this post, when I was explaining how people compute market volatility. I encourage anyone who is interested in this technical question to read that post, it really explains the reasoning well. WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? I was invited last week to an event co-sponsored by the White House,Microsoft, and NYU called AI Now: The social and economic implications of artificial intelligence technologies in the near term. Many of the discussions were under "Chatham House Rule," which means I get to talk about the ideas without attributing any given idea to SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH I'm reading a fascinating "Ethnography of Wall Street" called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990's. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider's view into the culture of investment banking, and the first third of MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS This is a guest post by Aise O’Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration.Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.”. But it’s not just rightwing cranks who areABOUT | MATHBABE
Cathy O'Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, "what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?" If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil at gmail dot com. IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE You'll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5" pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips of cloth instead) A sewing machine Good scissors Crochet needle and DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has been a Mathematics professor, a visiting scientist at IBM's Watson Labs and a programdirector
GERRYMANDERING ALGORITHMS I've been thinking about gerrymandering recently, specifically how to design algorithms to gerrymander and to detect gerrymandering. Whence "Gerrymander"? First thing's first. According to wikipedia (and my friend Michael Thaddeus), the term "Gerrymander" is a mash-up of a dude named Elbridge Gerry and the word "salamander." It was concocted when Gerry got made fun of for MEASURING HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Say we are trying to estimate risk on a stock or a portfolio of stocks. For the purpose of this discussion, let's say we'd like to know how far up or down we might expect to see a price move in one day. First we need to decide how to measure the upness or downnessWHY LOG RETURNS?
There’s a nice blog post here by Quantivity which explains why we choose to define market returns using the log function:. where denotes price on day .. I mentioned this question briefly in this post, when I was explaining how people compute market volatility. I encourage anyone who is interested in this technical question to read that post, it really explains the reasoning well. WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? I was invited last week to an event co-sponsored by the White House,Microsoft, and NYU called AI Now: The social and economic implications of artificial intelligence technologies in the near term. Many of the discussions were under "Chatham House Rule," which means I get to talk about the ideas without attributing any given idea to SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH I'm reading a fascinating "Ethnography of Wall Street" called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990's. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider's view into the culture of investment banking, and the first third of P-VALUES AND POWER IN STATISTICAL TESTS I am not completely thrilled with what’s being said in Andrew’s piece. It seems like the point is: using p-values as an initial filter for a hypothesis test, and then subsequently using that same sample result as an estimate of the population parameter, leads to biased estimates (especially in the case of low-power tests). WHY IS MATH RESEARCH IMPORTANT? As I've already described, I'm worried about the oncoming MOOC revolution and its effect on math research. To say it plainly, I think there will be major cuts in professional math jobs starting very soon, and I've even started to discourage young people from their plans toHCSSIM 2012
I was a senior staff member at the HCSSiM program in 2012, where I taught a workshop for the first half of the program, so 17 lectures, with my awesome junior staff Elizabeth Campolongo, Maxwell Levit, and Josh Vekhter. I also gave a prime time theorem talk on the game ofNim. I also wrote
CONSERVATION LAW OF MONEY Being a mathematician, I've always been on the lookout for quantitative statements about the financial system as a whole that explain large economic phenomena. Just for the satisfaction of it all. For example, I think it's possible that many bubbles (dot com, Japanese stocks) can be explained simply by saying that, when normalpeople, rather
ANALEMMA | MATHBABE
Today is a day of new things, since I finished my last day at my job yesterday and I'm going to math camp tomorrow. It's exciting, and I'm going to kick off this first day of new things with a silly but fun thing I recently learned about the earth and the sun. Some people know WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD The criminal acts cited here, are reason enough why Larry Summers shouldn’t be appointed head of anything, let alone the World Bank. Unfortunately, the Harvard fiasco is just one in a long line of misdeeds that can be attributed to Mr. Summers. MICROFINANCE IS MOSTLY A SCAM I might be well behind others on this subject, but I’m trying to catch up. I just finished a book entitled Confessions of a Microfinance Heretic: how microfinance lost its way and betrayed the poor, written by Hugh Sinclair. Published in 2012, it reviews the previous decade or so of microfinance institutions and how there are essentially very few that haven’t become loan sharks for poor SHOULD SHORT SELLING BE BANNED? Yesterday it was announced that the short selling ban in France, Italy, and Spain for financial stocks would be continued; there's also an indefinite short selling ban in Belgium. What is this and does it make sense? Short selling is mathematically equivalent to buying the negative of a stock. To see the actual mechanics of how IS A $100,000 PENSION OUTRAGEOUS? There are lots of stories coming out recently about how public workers, typically police or firefighters, are retiring with "outrageous" pensions of $100,000. Here's one from the Atlantic. From the article: That doesn't frustrate Maviglio, who insists that "people who put their lives on the line every day deserve a secure retirement." But do they "deserve" KEN RIBET’S LOVE NOTE FROM SERGE LANG This is a guest post from Ken Ribet, a story about one of my favorite people, Serge Lang. Crossposted from Facebook. There's a long story about this page, and I might as well tell it here. I uploaded this image because one of my Facebook friends MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE Making facemasks: a step-by-step guide. April 2, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. You’ll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5″ pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips ofcloth
MEASURING HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Measuring historical volatility. July 24, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Say we are trying to estimate risk on a stock or a portfolio of stocks. For the purpose of this discussion, let’s say we’d like to know how far up or down we might expect to see a price move in one day. First we need to decide how to measure the upness or downness ofthe
DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING Diabetics potentially have a LOT to lose by using hydroxychloroquine. April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has GERRYMANDERING ALGORITHMS I've been thinking about gerrymandering recently, specifically how to design algorithms to gerrymander and to detect gerrymandering. Whence "Gerrymander"? First thing's first. According to wikipedia (and my friend Michael Thaddeus), the term "Gerrymander" is a mash-up of a dude named Elbridge Gerry and the word "salamander." It was concocted when Gerry got made fun of forWHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE Making facemasks: a step-by-step guide. April 2, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. You’ll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5″ pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips ofcloth
MEASURING HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Measuring historical volatility. July 24, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Say we are trying to estimate risk on a stock or a portfolio of stocks. For the purpose of this discussion, let’s say we’d like to know how far up or down we might expect to see a price move in one day. First we need to decide how to measure the upness or downness ofthe
DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING Diabetics potentially have a LOT to lose by using hydroxychloroquine. April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has GERRYMANDERING ALGORITHMS I've been thinking about gerrymandering recently, specifically how to design algorithms to gerrymander and to detect gerrymandering. Whence "Gerrymander"? First thing's first. According to wikipedia (and my friend Michael Thaddeus), the term "Gerrymander" is a mash-up of a dude named Elbridge Gerry and the word "salamander." It was concocted when Gerry got made fun of forWHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
P-VALUES AND POWER IN STATISTICAL TESTS P-values and power in statistical tests. November 24, 2014 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Today I’m going to do my best to explain Andrew Gelman’s recent intriguing post on his blog for the sake of non-statisticians including myself (hat tip Catalina Bertani). If you are a statistician, and especially if you are Andrew Gelman, please docorrect me
HOW DO YOU STANDARDIZE TESTS? I'm reading an interesting book by Douglas Harris about the value-added model movement, called Value-added Measures in Education, available here from Harvard Education Press. Harris goes into a very reasonable critique of how "snapshot" views of students, teachers, and school are a very poor assessment of teacher ability, since they are absolute measurements rather than “HAND TO MOUTH” AND THE RATIONALITY OF THE POOR Tirado just came out with a book called Hand To Mouth: Living in Bootstrap America and was discussing it with Dr. John Cook, who was a fantastic interviewer. You might have come across Tirado’s writing – her essay on poverty that went viral, or the backlash against that essay.She’s clearly a tough cookie, a great writer, and anarticulate speaker.
HCSSIM 2012
I was a senior staff member at the HCSSiM program in 2012, where I taught a workshop for the first half of the program, so 17 lectures, with my awesome junior staff Elizabeth Campolongo, Maxwell Levit, and Josh Vekhter. I also gave a prime time theorem talk on the game ofNim. I also wrote
WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD The criminal acts cited here, are reason enough why Larry Summers shouldn’t be appointed head of anything, let alone the World Bank. Unfortunately, the Harvard fiasco is just one in a long line of misdeeds that can be attributed to Mr. Summers.ANALEMMA | MATHBABE
Analemma. June 30, 2012 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Today is a day of new things, since I finished my last day at my job yesterday and I’m going to math camp tomorrow. It’s exciting, and I’m going to kick off this first day of new things with a silly but fun thing I recently learned about the earth and the sun. Some people know this already MICROFINANCE IS MOSTLY A SCAM Microfinance is mostly a scam. I might be well behind others on this subject, but I’m trying to catch up. I just finished a book entitled Confessions of a Microfinance Heretic: how microfinance lost its way and betrayed the poor, written by Hugh Sinclair. Published in 2012, it reviews the previous decade or so of microfinance institutions and SHOULD SHORT SELLING BE BANNED? Yesterday it was announced that the short selling ban in France, Italy, and Spain for financial stocks would be continued; there's also an indefinite short selling ban in Belgium. What is this and does it make sense? Short selling is mathematically equivalent to buying the negative of a stock. To see the actual mechanics of how IS A $100,000 PENSION OUTRAGEOUS? There are lots of stories coming out recently about how public workers, typically police or firefighters, are retiring with "outrageous" pensions of $100,000. Here's one from the Atlantic. From the article: That doesn't frustrate Maviglio, who insists that "people who put their lives on the line every day deserve a secure retirement." But do they "deserve" MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS This is a guest post by Aise O’Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration.Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.”. But it’s not just rightwing cranks who areABOUT | MATHBABE
Cathy O'Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, "what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?" If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil at gmail dot com. IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE You'll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5" pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips of cloth instead) A sewing machine Good scissors Crochet needle and MEASURING HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Say we are trying to estimate risk on a stock or a portfolio of stocks. For the purpose of this discussion, let's say we'd like to know how far up or down we might expect to see a price move in one day. First we need to decide how to measure the upness or downness GERRYMANDERING ALGORITHMS I've been thinking about gerrymandering recently, specifically how to design algorithms to gerrymander and to detect gerrymandering. Whence "Gerrymander"? First thing's first. According to wikipedia (and my friend Michael Thaddeus), the term "Gerrymander" is a mash-up of a dude named Elbridge Gerry and the word "salamander." It was concocted when Gerry got made fun of forWHY LOG RETURNS?
There’s a nice blog post here by Quantivity which explains why we choose to define market returns using the log function:. where denotes price on day .. I mentioned this question briefly in this post, when I was explaining how people compute market volatility. I encourage anyone who is interested in this technical question to read that post, it really explains the reasoning well. WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? I was invited last week to an event co-sponsored by the White House,Microsoft, and NYU called AI Now: The social and economic implications of artificial intelligence technologies in the near term. Many of the discussions were under "Chatham House Rule," which means I get to talk about the ideas without attributing any given idea to SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH I'm reading a fascinating "Ethnography of Wall Street" called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990's. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider's view into the culture of investment banking, and the first third of DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has been a Mathematics professor, a visiting scientist at IBM's Watson Labs and a programdirector
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS This is a guest post by Aise O’Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration.Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.”. But it’s not just rightwing cranks who areABOUT | MATHBABE
Cathy O'Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, "what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?" If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil at gmail dot com. IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE You'll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5" pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips of cloth instead) A sewing machine Good scissors Crochet needle and MEASURING HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Say we are trying to estimate risk on a stock or a portfolio of stocks. For the purpose of this discussion, let's say we'd like to know how far up or down we might expect to see a price move in one day. First we need to decide how to measure the upness or downness GERRYMANDERING ALGORITHMS I've been thinking about gerrymandering recently, specifically how to design algorithms to gerrymander and to detect gerrymandering. Whence "Gerrymander"? First thing's first. According to wikipedia (and my friend Michael Thaddeus), the term "Gerrymander" is a mash-up of a dude named Elbridge Gerry and the word "salamander." It was concocted when Gerry got made fun of forWHY LOG RETURNS?
There’s a nice blog post here by Quantivity which explains why we choose to define market returns using the log function:. where denotes price on day .. I mentioned this question briefly in this post, when I was explaining how people compute market volatility. I encourage anyone who is interested in this technical question to read that post, it really explains the reasoning well. WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? I was invited last week to an event co-sponsored by the White House,Microsoft, and NYU called AI Now: The social and economic implications of artificial intelligence technologies in the near term. Many of the discussions were under "Chatham House Rule," which means I get to talk about the ideas without attributing any given idea to SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH I'm reading a fascinating "Ethnography of Wall Street" called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990's. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider's view into the culture of investment banking, and the first third of DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has been a Mathematics professor, a visiting scientist at IBM's Watson Labs and a programdirector
ABOUT | MATHBABE
Cathy O'Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, "what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?" If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil at gmail dot com.CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
P-VALUES AND POWER IN STATISTICAL TESTS I am not completely thrilled with what’s being said in Andrew’s piece. It seems like the point is: using p-values as an initial filter for a hypothesis test, and then subsequently using that same sample result as an estimate of the population parameter, leads to biased estimates (especially in the case of low-power tests).HCSSIM 2012
I was a senior staff member at the HCSSiM program in 2012, where I taught a workshop for the first half of the program, so 17 lectures, with my awesome junior staff Elizabeth Campolongo, Maxwell Levit, and Josh Vekhter. I also gave a prime time theorem talk on the game ofNim. I also wrote
“HAND TO MOUTH” AND THE RATIONALITY OF THE POOR Tirado just came out with a book called Hand To Mouth: Living in Bootstrap America and was discussing it with Dr. John Cook, who was a fantastic interviewer. You might have come across Tirado’s writing – her essay on poverty that went viral, or the backlash against that essay.She’s clearly a tough cookie, a great writer, and anarticulate speaker.
ANALEMMA | MATHBABE
Today is a day of new things, since I finished my last day at my job yesterday and I'm going to math camp tomorrow. It's exciting, and I'm going to kick off this first day of new things with a silly but fun thing I recently learned about the earth and the sun. Some people know WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD The criminal acts cited here, are reason enough why Larry Summers shouldn’t be appointed head of anything, let alone the World Bank. Unfortunately, the Harvard fiasco is just one in a long line of misdeeds that can be attributed to Mr. Summers. HOW DO YOU QUANTIFY MORALITY? Lately I've been thinking about technical approaches to measuring, monitoring, and addressing discrimination in algorithms. To do this, I consider the different stakeholders and the relative harm they will suffer depending on mistakes made by the algorithm. It turns out that's a really robust approach, and one that's basically unavoidable. Here are three examples to MICROFINANCE IS MOSTLY A SCAM I might be well behind others on this subject, but I’m trying to catch up. I just finished a book entitled Confessions of a Microfinance Heretic: how microfinance lost its way and betrayed the poor, written by Hugh Sinclair. Published in 2012, it reviews the previous decade or so of microfinance institutions and how there are essentially very few that haven’t become loan sharks for poor SHOULD SHORT SELLING BE BANNED? Yesterday it was announced that the short selling ban in France, Italy, and Spain for financial stocks would be continued; there's also an indefinite short selling ban in Belgium. What is this and does it make sense? Short selling is mathematically equivalent to buying the negative of a stock. To see the actual mechanics of how MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” THE BASICS OF QUANTITATIVE MODELING The basics of quantitative modeling. June 16, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. One exciting goal I have for this blog is to articulate the basic methods of quantitative modeling, followed by, hopefully, collaborative real-time examples of how this craft works out in given examples. Today I just want to outline the techniques, and in laterposts I
WHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
HOW DO YOU STANDARDIZE TESTS? I'm reading an interesting book by Douglas Harris about the value-added model movement, called Value-added Measures in Education, available here from Harvard Education Press. Harris goes into a very reasonable critique of how "snapshot" views of students, teachers, and school are a very poor assessment of teacher ability, since they are absolute measurements rather than WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD Some people still think Larry Summers got fired from being the president of Harvard because of the ridiculous comments he made about women in math (see my post about this here) or because of the comments he made about Cornel West. Actually, the truth is something worse, and for which he should actually be in WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
CITIGROUP’S PLUTONOMY MEMOS Citigroup’s plutonomy memos. August 30, 2012 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Maybe I’m the last person who’s hearing about the Citigroup “plutonomy memos”, but they’re blowning me away. Wait, now that I look around, I see that Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism posted about this on October 15, 2009, almost three years ago, and called forpeople
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” THE BASICS OF QUANTITATIVE MODELING The basics of quantitative modeling. June 16, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. One exciting goal I have for this blog is to articulate the basic methods of quantitative modeling, followed by, hopefully, collaborative real-time examples of how this craft works out in given examples. Today I just want to outline the techniques, and in laterposts I
WHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
HOW DO YOU STANDARDIZE TESTS? I'm reading an interesting book by Douglas Harris about the value-added model movement, called Value-added Measures in Education, available here from Harvard Education Press. Harris goes into a very reasonable critique of how "snapshot" views of students, teachers, and school are a very poor assessment of teacher ability, since they are absolute measurements rather than WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD Some people still think Larry Summers got fired from being the president of Harvard because of the ridiculous comments he made about women in math (see my post about this here) or because of the comments he made about Cornel West. Actually, the truth is something worse, and for which he should actually be in WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
CITIGROUP’S PLUTONOMY MEMOS Citigroup’s plutonomy memos. August 30, 2012 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Maybe I’m the last person who’s hearing about the Citigroup “plutonomy memos”, but they’re blowning me away. Wait, now that I look around, I see that Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism posted about this on October 15, 2009, almost three years ago, and called forpeople
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUES It is the fourth most prescribed drug in the United States and is used by more than 150,000,000 people world wide. It is the usual first drug prescribed for Type 2 diabetes. It is a good drug, the side effects are usually mild and it is even being explored (the TAME trial) as a possible “longevity” drug. A good drug.CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
COOL MATH BOOKS
Cool math books. Leave a comment Go to comments. Straight-up math books: ‘Understanding Analysis’ by Abbott. ‘The Art of Proof’ by Beck. ‘Contributions to the Founding of the Theory of Transfinite Numbers’ by Cantor. ‘What Is Mathematics?’ by Courant & Robbins. ‘The Mathematical Experience’ by Davis and Hersh. MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE Making facemasks: a step-by-step guide. April 2, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. You’ll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5″ pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips ofcloth
THE BASICS OF QUANTITATIVE MODELING The basics of quantitative modeling. June 16, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. One exciting goal I have for this blog is to articulate the basic methods of quantitative modeling, followed by, hopefully, collaborative real-time examples of how this craft works out in given examples. Today I just want to outline the techniques, and in laterposts I
P-VALUES AND POWER IN STATISTICAL TESTS P-values and power in statistical tests. November 24, 2014 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Today I’m going to do my best to explain Andrew Gelman’s recent intriguing post on his blog for the sake of non-statisticians including myself (hat tip Catalina Bertani). If you are a statistician, and especially if you are Andrew Gelman, please docorrect me
WORKING WITH LARRY SUMMERS (PART 3) Working with Larry Summers (part 3) September 11, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Previously I’ve talked about the quant culture of D.E. Shaw as well as the tendencies of people working there . Today I wanted to add a third part about the experience of being “on the inside looking out” during the credit crisis. I started my quant jobin June
MATH CONTESTS KIND OF SUCK Math contests kind of suck. July 17, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. I’m going to annoy quite a few people with this post, but I’ve been thinking about this for a while and it comes down to this: I think math contests for kids kind of suck. Here’s the short versionof my argument.
BLACK SCHOLES AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION Black Scholes and the normal distribution. There have been lots of comments and confusion, especially in this post, over what people in finance do or do not assume about how the markets work. I wanted to dispel some myths (at the risk of creating more). First, there’s a big difference between quantitative trading and quantitative risk. MICROFINANCE IS MOSTLY A SCAM Microfinance is mostly a scam. I might be well behind others on this subject, but I’m trying to catch up. I just finished a book entitled Confessions of a Microfinance Heretic: how microfinance lost its way and betrayed the poor, written by Hugh Sinclair. Published in 2012, it reviews the previous decade or so of microfinance institutions and MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” THE BASICS OF QUANTITATIVE MODELING The basics of quantitative modeling. June 16, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. One exciting goal I have for this blog is to articulate the basic methods of quantitative modeling, followed by, hopefully, collaborative real-time examples of how this craft works out in given examples. Today I just want to outline the techniques, and in laterposts I
WHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
HOW DO YOU STANDARDIZE TESTS? I'm reading an interesting book by Douglas Harris about the value-added model movement, called Value-added Measures in Education, available here from Harvard Education Press. Harris goes into a very reasonable critique of how "snapshot" views of students, teachers, and school are a very poor assessment of teacher ability, since they are absolute measurements rather than WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD Some people still think Larry Summers got fired from being the president of Harvard because of the ridiculous comments he made about women in math (see my post about this here) or because of the comments he made about Cornel West. Actually, the truth is something worse, and for which he should actually be in WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
CITIGROUP’S PLUTONOMY MEMOS Citigroup’s plutonomy memos. August 30, 2012 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Maybe I’m the last person who’s hearing about the Citigroup “plutonomy memos”, but they’re blowning me away. Wait, now that I look around, I see that Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism posted about this on October 15, 2009, almost three years ago, and called forpeople
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” THE BASICS OF QUANTITATIVE MODELING The basics of quantitative modeling. June 16, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. One exciting goal I have for this blog is to articulate the basic methods of quantitative modeling, followed by, hopefully, collaborative real-time examples of how this craft works out in given examples. Today I just want to outline the techniques, and in laterposts I
WHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
HOW DO YOU STANDARDIZE TESTS? I'm reading an interesting book by Douglas Harris about the value-added model movement, called Value-added Measures in Education, available here from Harvard Education Press. Harris goes into a very reasonable critique of how "snapshot" views of students, teachers, and school are a very poor assessment of teacher ability, since they are absolute measurements rather than WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD Some people still think Larry Summers got fired from being the president of Harvard because of the ridiculous comments he made about women in math (see my post about this here) or because of the comments he made about Cornel West. Actually, the truth is something worse, and for which he should actually be in WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
CITIGROUP’S PLUTONOMY MEMOS Citigroup’s plutonomy memos. August 30, 2012 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Maybe I’m the last person who’s hearing about the Citigroup “plutonomy memos”, but they’re blowning me away. Wait, now that I look around, I see that Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism posted about this on October 15, 2009, almost three years ago, and called forpeople
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUES It is the fourth most prescribed drug in the United States and is used by more than 150,000,000 people world wide. It is the usual first drug prescribed for Type 2 diabetes. It is a good drug, the side effects are usually mild and it is even being explored (the TAME trial) as a possible “longevity” drug. A good drug.CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
COOL MATH BOOKS
Cool math books. Leave a comment Go to comments. Straight-up math books: ‘Understanding Analysis’ by Abbott. ‘The Art of Proof’ by Beck. ‘Contributions to the Founding of the Theory of Transfinite Numbers’ by Cantor. ‘What Is Mathematics?’ by Courant & Robbins. ‘The Mathematical Experience’ by Davis and Hersh. THE BASICS OF QUANTITATIVE MODELING The basics of quantitative modeling. June 16, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. One exciting goal I have for this blog is to articulate the basic methods of quantitative modeling, followed by, hopefully, collaborative real-time examples of how this craft works out in given examples. Today I just want to outline the techniques, and in laterposts I
MEASURING HISTORICAL VOLATILITY Measuring historical volatility. July 24, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Say we are trying to estimate risk on a stock or a portfolio of stocks. For the purpose of this discussion, let’s say we’d like to know how far up or down we might expect to see a price move in one day. First we need to decide how to measure the upness or downness ofthe
P-VALUES AND POWER IN STATISTICAL TESTS P-values and power in statistical tests. November 24, 2014 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Today I’m going to do my best to explain Andrew Gelman’s recent intriguing post on his blog for the sake of non-statisticians including myself (hat tip Catalina Bertani). If you are a statistician, and especially if you are Andrew Gelman, please docorrect me
GERRYMANDERING ALGORITHMS I've been thinking about gerrymandering recently, specifically how to design algorithms to gerrymander and to detect gerrymandering. Whence "Gerrymander"? First thing's first. According to wikipedia (and my friend Michael Thaddeus), the term "Gerrymander" is a mash-up of a dude named Elbridge Gerry and the word "salamander." It was concocted when Gerry got made fun of for CORE ECON: A FREE ECONOMICS TEXTBOOK Core Econ: a free economics textbook. October 29, 2014 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Today I want to tell you guys about core-econ.org, a free (although you do have to register) textbook my buddy Suresh Naidu is using this semester to teach out of and is also contributing to, along with a bunch of other economists. This was obviously not taken in New WORKING WITH LARRY SUMMERS (PART 3) Working with Larry Summers (part 3) September 11, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Previously I’ve talked about the quant culture of D.E. Shaw as well as the tendencies of people working there . Today I wanted to add a third part about the experience of being “on the inside looking out” during the credit crisis. I started my quant jobin June
MICROFINANCE IS MOSTLY A SCAM Microfinance is mostly a scam. I might be well behind others on this subject, but I’m trying to catch up. I just finished a book entitled Confessions of a Microfinance Heretic: how microfinance lost its way and betrayed the poor, written by Hugh Sinclair. Published in 2012, it reviews the previous decade or so of microfinance institutions and MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING Diabetics potentially have a LOT to lose by using hydroxychloroquine. April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and hasWHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD Some people still think Larry Summers got fired from being the president of Harvard because of the ridiculous comments he made about women in math (see my post about this here) or because of the comments he made about Cornel West. Actually, the truth is something worse, and for which he should actually be in WORKING WITH LARRY SUMMERS (PART 3) Working with Larry Summers (part 3) September 11, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Previously I’ve talked about the quant culture of D.E. Shaw as well as the tendencies of people working there . Today I wanted to add a third part about the experience of being “on the inside looking out” during the credit crisis. I started my quant jobin June
WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
RACE AND POLICE SHOOTINGS: WHY DATA SAMPLING MATTERS Race and Police Shootings: Why Data Sampling Matters. July 19, 2016 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Brian D’Alessandro, who daylights as the Head of Data Science at Zocdoc and as an Adjunct Professor with NYU’s Center for Data Science. When not thinking probabilistically, he’s drumming with the indie surf rock quarter SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING Diabetics potentially have a LOT to lose by using hydroxychloroquine. April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and hasWHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD Some people still think Larry Summers got fired from being the president of Harvard because of the ridiculous comments he made about women in math (see my post about this here) or because of the comments he made about Cornel West. Actually, the truth is something worse, and for which he should actually be in WORKING WITH LARRY SUMMERS (PART 3) Working with Larry Summers (part 3) September 11, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Previously I’ve talked about the quant culture of D.E. Shaw as well as the tendencies of people working there . Today I wanted to add a third part about the experience of being “on the inside looking out” during the credit crisis. I started my quant jobin June
WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
RACE AND POLICE SHOOTINGS: WHY DATA SAMPLING MATTERS Race and Police Shootings: Why Data Sampling Matters. July 19, 2016 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Brian D’Alessandro, who daylights as the Head of Data Science at Zocdoc and as an Adjunct Professor with NYU’s Center for Data Science. When not thinking probabilistically, he’s drumming with the indie surf rock quarter SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUES It is the fourth most prescribed drug in the United States and is used by more than 150,000,000 people world wide. It is the usual first drug prescribed for Type 2 diabetes. It is a good drug, the side effects are usually mild and it is even being explored (the TAME trial) as a possible “longevity” drug. A good drug.CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
WHO STARTS BLOGGING IN 2021? It's a reasonable question: who starts blogging in 2021? After all, it's an old fashioned writing form, and not so many people spend their days reading blogs when there are Twitter TLs and Facebook feeds to scroll through. Well, the answer is my son Aise does. And I'mFINANCE | MATHBABE
A fascinating conversation with Gerald Posner, author of God’s Bankers: a History of Money and Power at the Vaticas, with crazy and horrible details of the Vatican’s bank’s dealings with the Nazis (hat tip Aryt Alasti).Also a review of the book in the New York Times.; Nerding out on an interesting blog post by Laura McClay, who describes her involvement researching flood insurance (hat MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE Making facemasks: a step-by-step guide. April 2, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. You’ll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5″ pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips ofcloth
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUES Prime Numbers and the Riemann Hypothesis. May 3, 2016 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. I just finished reading a neat, new, short (128 pages) book called Prime Numbers and the Riemann Hypothesis by Barry Mazur and William Stein. Full disclosure: Barry was my thesis advisor and William is a friend of mine, and also a skater. But anyhoo, the book. P-VALUES AND POWER IN STATISTICAL TESTS P-values and power in statistical tests. November 24, 2014 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Today I’m going to do my best to explain Andrew Gelman’s recent intriguing post on his blog for the sake of non-statisticians including myself (hat tip Catalina Bertani). If you are a statistician, and especially if you are Andrew Gelman, please docorrect me
I DON’T HAVE TO PROVE THEOREMS TO BE A MATHEMATICIAN I don’t have to prove theorems to be a mathematician. January 7, 2013 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. I’m giving a talk at the Joint Mathematics Meeting on Thursday (it’s a 30 minute talk that starts at 11:20am, in Room 2 of the Upper Level of the San Diego Conference Center, I hope you come!). I have to distill the talk from anhour-long talk I
SHOULD SHORT SELLING BE BANNED? Yesterday it was announced that the short selling ban in France, Italy, and Spain for financial stocks would be continued; there's also an indefinite short selling ban in Belgium. What is this and does it make sense? Short selling is mathematically equivalent to buying the negative of a stock. To see the actual mechanics of how MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING Diabetics potentially have a LOT to lose by using hydroxychloroquine. April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD Some people still think Larry Summers got fired from being the president of Harvard because of the ridiculous comments he made about women in math (see my post about this here) or because of the comments he made about Cornel West. Actually, the truth is something worse, and for which he should actually be inWHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
WORKING WITH LARRY SUMMERS (PART 3) Working with Larry Summers (part 3) September 11, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Previously I’ve talked about the quant culture of D.E. Shaw as well as the tendencies of people working there . Today I wanted to add a third part about the experience of being “on the inside looking out” during the credit crisis. I started my quant jobin June
WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
RACE AND POLICE SHOOTINGS: WHY DATA SAMPLING MATTERS Race and Police Shootings: Why Data Sampling Matters. July 19, 2016 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Brian D’Alessandro, who daylights as the Head of Data Science at Zocdoc and as an Adjunct Professor with NYU’s Center for Data Science. When not thinking probabilistically, he’s drumming with the indie surf rock quarter SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING Diabetics potentially have a LOT to lose by using hydroxychloroquine. April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and hasWHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD Some people still think Larry Summers got fired from being the president of Harvard because of the ridiculous comments he made about women in math (see my post about this here) or because of the comments he made about Cornel West. Actually, the truth is something worse, and for which he should actually be in WORKING WITH LARRY SUMMERS (PART 3) Working with Larry Summers (part 3) September 11, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Previously I’ve talked about the quant culture of D.E. Shaw as well as the tendencies of people working there . Today I wanted to add a third part about the experience of being “on the inside looking out” during the credit crisis. I started my quant jobin June
WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
RACE AND POLICE SHOOTINGS: WHY DATA SAMPLING MATTERS Race and Police Shootings: Why Data Sampling Matters. July 19, 2016 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Brian D’Alessandro, who daylights as the Head of Data Science at Zocdoc and as an Adjunct Professor with NYU’s Center for Data Science. When not thinking probabilistically, he’s drumming with the indie surf rock quarter SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUES It is the fourth most prescribed drug in the United States and is used by more than 150,000,000 people world wide. It is the usual first drug prescribed for Type 2 diabetes. It is a good drug, the side effects are usually mild and it is even being explored (the TAME trial) as a possible “longevity” drug. A good drug.CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
WHO STARTS BLOGGING IN 2021? 1 day ago · It's a reasonable question: who starts blogging in 2021? After all, it's an old fashioned writing form, and not so many people spend their days reading blogs when there are Twitter TLs and Facebook feeds to scroll through. Well, the answer is my son Aise does. And I'mFINANCE | MATHBABE
A fascinating conversation with Gerald Posner, author of God’s Bankers: a History of Money and Power at the Vaticas, with crazy and horrible details of the Vatican’s bank’s dealings with the Nazis (hat tip Aryt Alasti).Also a review of the book in the New York Times.; Nerding out on an interesting blog post by Laura McClay, who describes her involvement researching flood insurance (hat MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE Making facemasks: a step-by-step guide. April 2, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. You’ll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5″ pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips ofcloth
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUES Prime Numbers and the Riemann Hypothesis. May 3, 2016 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. I just finished reading a neat, new, short (128 pages) book called Prime Numbers and the Riemann Hypothesis by Barry Mazur and William Stein. Full disclosure: Barry was my thesis advisor and William is a friend of mine, and also a skater. But anyhoo, the book. P-VALUES AND POWER IN STATISTICAL TESTS P-values and power in statistical tests. November 24, 2014 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Today I’m going to do my best to explain Andrew Gelman’s recent intriguing post on his blog for the sake of non-statisticians including myself (hat tip Catalina Bertani). If you are a statistician, and especially if you are Andrew Gelman, please docorrect me
I DON’T HAVE TO PROVE THEOREMS TO BE A MATHEMATICIAN I don’t have to prove theorems to be a mathematician. January 7, 2013 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. I’m giving a talk at the Joint Mathematics Meeting on Thursday (it’s a 30 minute talk that starts at 11:20am, in Room 2 of the Upper Level of the San Diego Conference Center, I hope you come!). I have to distill the talk from anhour-long talk I
SHOULD SHORT SELLING BE BANNED? Yesterday it was announced that the short selling ban in France, Italy, and Spain for financial stocks would be continued; there's also an indefinite short selling ban in Belgium. What is this and does it make sense? Short selling is mathematically equivalent to buying the negative of a stock. To see the actual mechanics of how MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING Diabetics potentially have a LOT to lose by using hydroxychloroquine. April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD Some people still think Larry Summers got fired from being the president of Harvard because of the ridiculous comments he made about women in math (see my post about this here) or because of the comments he made about Cornel West. Actually, the truth is something worse, and for which he should actually be inWHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
WORKING WITH LARRY SUMMERS (PART 3) Working with Larry Summers (part 3) September 11, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Previously I’ve talked about the quant culture of D.E. Shaw as well as the tendencies of people working there . Today I wanted to add a third part about the experience of being “on the inside looking out” during the credit crisis. I started my quant jobin June
WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
RACE AND POLICE SHOOTINGS: WHY DATA SAMPLING MATTERS Race and Police Shootings: Why Data Sampling Matters. July 19, 2016 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Brian D’Alessandro, who daylights as the Head of Data Science at Zocdoc and as an Adjunct Professor with NYU’s Center for Data Science. When not thinking probabilistically, he’s drumming with the indie surf rock quarter SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUESABOUTHCSSIM 2012COOL MATH BOOKSCONTACTLET'S CROWDSOURCE CO2 LEVELS The 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of expected inflation priced into the bond market recently hit a new high for the past decade: 2.72%. At the same time, the cpi index in April 2021, was 4.16% higher than it was in April 2020. That’s another record for adecade.
CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
IS HYPERINFLATION COMING? This is a guest post by Aise O'Neil. Inflation is growing out of control, or so we are told. Tucker Carlson recently said, “we wound up with frightening levels of inflation,” blaming such levels on the policies of the Biden administration. Glenn Beck published a youtube video entitled “How to Prepare for Hyperinflation in America.” DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING Diabetics potentially have a LOT to lose by using hydroxychloroquine. April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has WHY LARRY SUMMERS LOST THE PRESIDENCY OF HARVARD Some people still think Larry Summers got fired from being the president of Harvard because of the ridiculous comments he made about women in math (see my post about this here) or because of the comments he made about Cornel West. Actually, the truth is something worse, and for which he should actually be inWHY LOG RETURNS?
The first is that the assumption of a log-normal distribution of returns, especially over a longer term than daily (say weekly or monthly) is unsatisfactory, because the skew of log-normal distribution is positive, whereas actual market returns for, say, S&P is negatively skewed (because we see bigger jumps down in times ofpanic).
WORKING WITH LARRY SUMMERS (PART 3) Working with Larry Summers (part 3) September 11, 2011 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Previously I’ve talked about the quant culture of D.E. Shaw as well as the tendencies of people working there . Today I wanted to add a third part about the experience of being “on the inside looking out” during the credit crisis. I started my quant jobin June
WHEN IS AI APPROPRIATE? AI teams are, generally speaking, homogenous in gender, class, and often race, and that monoculture gives rise to massive misunderstandings and narrow ways of thinking. The short version of my answer is, AI can be made appropriate if it’s thoughtfully done, but most AI shops are not set up to be at all thoughtful about how it’sdone.
RACE AND POLICE SHOOTINGS: WHY DATA SAMPLING MATTERS Race and Police Shootings: Why Data Sampling Matters. July 19, 2016 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. This is a guest post by Brian D’Alessandro, who daylights as the Head of Data Science at Zocdoc and as an Adjunct Professor with NYU’s Center for Data Science. When not thinking probabilistically, he’s drumming with the indie surf rock quarter SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND ADAM SMITH Shareholder value and Adam Smith. I’m reading a fascinating “Ethnography of Wall Street” called Liquidated. This was written by anthropologist Karen Ho, who did her graduate student field work at an investment bank in the mid-1990’s. As a woman and as a minority, Ho had an interesting, outsider’s view into the culture ofinvestment
ABOUT | MATHBABE
About. Leave a comment. Cathy O’Neil lives in New York City. She hopes to someday have a better answer to the question, “what can a non-academic mathematician do that makes the world a better place?”. If you want to talk to Cathy directly email her at cathy.oneil atgmail dot com.
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUES It is the fourth most prescribed drug in the United States and is used by more than 150,000,000 people world wide. It is the usual first drug prescribed for Type 2 diabetes. It is a good drug, the side effects are usually mild and it is even being explored (the TAME trial) as a possible “longevity” drug. A good drug.CONTACT | MATHBABE
Weapons of Math Destruction inquiry If you have a book rights inquiry, please contact Jay Mandel at jman@wmeentertainment.com. Speaking If you'd like to invite me to speak, please email Tiffany Vizcarra at tiffanyV@harrywalker.com or use this form. Bio Cathy O’Neil earned a Ph.D. in math from Harvard, was a postdoc at the MIT math department,and
WHO STARTS BLOGGING IN 2021? 1 day ago · It's a reasonable question: who starts blogging in 2021? After all, it's an old fashioned writing form, and not so many people spend their days reading blogs when there are Twitter TLs and Facebook feeds to scroll through. Well, the answer is my son Aise does. And I'mFINANCE | MATHBABE
A fascinating conversation with Gerald Posner, author of God’s Bankers: a History of Money and Power at the Vaticas, with crazy and horrible details of the Vatican’s bank’s dealings with the Nazis (hat tip Aryt Alasti).Also a review of the book in the New York Times.; Nerding out on an interesting blog post by Laura McClay, who describes her involvement researching flood insurance (hat MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE Making facemasks: a step-by-step guide. April 2, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. You’ll need: Dishcloths which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better) 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5″ pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hanger instead) Elastic cord (could use rubber bands or strips ofcloth
MATHBABE | EXPLORING AND VENTING ABOUT QUANTITATIVE ISSUES Prime Numbers and the Riemann Hypothesis. May 3, 2016 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. I just finished reading a neat, new, short (128 pages) book called Prime Numbers and the Riemann Hypothesis by Barry Mazur and William Stein. Full disclosure: Barry was my thesis advisor and William is a friend of mine, and also a skater. But anyhoo, the book. P-VALUES AND POWER IN STATISTICAL TESTS P-values and power in statistical tests. November 24, 2014 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. Today I’m going to do my best to explain Andrew Gelman’s recent intriguing post on his blog for the sake of non-statisticians including myself (hat tip Catalina Bertani). If you are a statistician, and especially if you are Andrew Gelman, please docorrect me
I DON’T HAVE TO PROVE THEOREMS TO BE A MATHEMATICIAN I don’t have to prove theorems to be a mathematician. January 7, 2013 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe. I’m giving a talk at the Joint Mathematics Meeting on Thursday (it’s a 30 minute talk that starts at 11:20am, in Room 2 of the Upper Level of the San Diego Conference Center, I hope you come!). I have to distill the talk from anhour-long talk I
SHOULD SHORT SELLING BE BANNED? Yesterday it was announced that the short selling ban in France, Italy, and Spain for financial stocks would be continued; there's also an indefinite short selling ban in Belgium. What is this and does it make sense? Short selling is mathematically equivalent to buying the negative of a stock. To see the actual mechanics of howMATHBABE
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NEW BLOOMBERG COLUMN: THIS IS NOT THE FLATTENED CURVE WEWERE PROMISED
April 17, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe9 comments
An empirical observation about models versus reality: THIS ISN’T THE FLATTENED CURVE WE WERE PROMISED THE DYING WON’T BE OVER ANYTIME SOON. See other columns I wrote here.
Categories: Uncategorized NEW BLOOMBERG COLUMN: COVID-19 TRACKING WILL NOT WORK April 16, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe4 comments
Another skeptical column from me today: THE COVID-19 TRACKING APP WON’T WORK IT DOES NOTHING FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ARE MOST AT RISK. See other columns I wrote here.
Categories: Uncategorized NEW BLOOMBERG COLUMN: 10 REASONS TO DOUBT THE COVID-19 DATA April 14, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe1 comment
Hi all,
I’m back at Bloomberg, writing about reasons to doubt the daily data we keep seeing. I’ve added a few reasons since my post last week. Also, I’m preparing myself for bad data today and tomorrow delayed from Easter weekend: 10 REASONS TO DOUBT THE COVID-19 DATA THE PANDEMIC’S TRUE TOLL MIGHT NEVER BE KNOWN. See other columns I wrote here.
Categories: Uncategorized DIABETICS POTENTIALLY HAVE A LOT TO LOSE BY USING HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE April 6, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe8 comments
_This is a guest post by Gary Cornell. Gary holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Brown University and was the co-founder of the the major technical publisher Apress. He has written or co-written numerous best selling programming books and has been a Mathematics professor, a visiting scientist at IBM’s Watson Labs and a program director at the National Science Foundation._ I’m not a doctor nor do I play one at daily press briefings. But like most mathematicians, I do know something about basic statistics. And, like most academics, I read _everything _that comes out about drugs I am taking. Obviously, I concentrate on the statistical sections and the list of side effects and drug interactions in these research papers. And so, this being 2020, I have a google alert for the drugs I am taking. Anyway, one drug I am taking is the maximum dose of metformin. It is the fourth most prescribed drug in the United States and is used by more than 150,000,000 people world wide. It is the usual first drug prescribed for Type 2 diabetes. It is a good drug, the side effects are usually mild and it is even being explored (the TAME trial) as a possible “longevity” drug. A good drug… So I was shocked to see this linkpopping
up in my in box:
read it here:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.018556v1 This note is from researchers at Johns Hopkins – which I hasten to point out is currently rated the #2 school in the United States for “medical research”. People there are not general considered practitioners of psycho ceramics, in other words. Holy ^&%$#, I thought. And then I tuned in to the Sunday “briefing” where Trump doubled down on his pushing claiming that “what do you have to lose” – and prevented Fauci from tempering his response. Though mice results aren’t conclusive and perhaps fatalities are off by a factor of 10 or a 100. Who the &^%$ knows if taking this will kill me? Maybe it is much worse for people on the maximum dose of metformin like me. But, absent proof it is safe for people taking metformin, pushing it if you are taking metformin except in life or death situations would seem to me malpractice for a doctor and practically criminal for an economist or politician. Oh, in case you are thinking that maybe except for people taking metformin, hydroxychloroquine is a “good” drug, Drugs.com says there are 332 drug interactions(59
of them being major). And hereis
the list of side effects So, answer is, you have a lot to lose. Categories: Uncategorized MAKING FACEMASKS: A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE April 2, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe14 comments
You’ll need:
* Dishcloths
which some people call tea towels (could use any cotton cloth but slightly thicker is better)
* 20 gauge metal wire cut into 2.5″ pieces (could use pieces of a thin wire hangerinstead)
* Elastic cord
(could use rubber bands or strips of cloth instead)* A sewing machine
* Good scissors
* Crochet needle and sharpies* Cardboard
I’m following the pattern for “Mask 2 (large)” on this webpage. But to be
honest I found it hard to follow which is why I’m going to tell you quite plainly how to do this relatively quickly. First, download and print this pdf: mask+2+large+pattern Or simply eyeball the following picture with the ruler as a guide: You’ll want to cut out the printed version and then outline it onto cardboard, then cut out the cardboard so you’ll have a form you can reuse a bunch of times with sharpies: This has been used a bunch and is kind of a mess. That’s ok. Then you outline with a sharpie on your dishcloth: I got 12 cardboard outlines on! That means 3 masks. Be sure to avoidthe hemmed edges.
Next you cut them all out: Next, pair up the cloth pieces to match: Next, sew along the foot of those matched boots for both pairs with a1/4″ seam:
And now put those two pieces together, with the seams on the _outsidefor both pieces:_
Next, sew all around the above piece (so sew the two pieces together) with a 1/4″ seam _except for about two inches at the bottom seam_: It’s time to turn this whole thing inside out by squeezing it through that two inch slit! Poke your fingers into all four corners plus the nose part at the top to make sure it’s all the way inside out. Here’s the other side: Next, sew a three inch line along the nose top (a 1″ seam) and stick the metal wire into that channel: Do you see the channel? The wire has to go in this area except, of course, you need to have it on the inside. Next, you want to sew along the entire edge (very close to the edge, maybe 1/4″), starting at one end of the nose wire channel. Halfway along you’ll carefully close the hole at the bottom: Here it is at the end: this picture is overexposed but the idea is you close up the nose wire channel on both sides. Next, you fold back 1.5″ of the ear flaps and sew down: This is the back of the mask after sewing down both flaps. Next, measure out 1 yard of elastic cord and tie together the ends: Next, use a crochet needle to pull through flaps and then tie ittogether:
Finally, yank the elastic cord until it’s hidden inside a flap and tidy everything up by snipping off the stray threads. It’s ready for a cute model! Now’s the time to squeeze the metal wire to make it fit your nose. Categories: Uncategorized COMMENTS ON COVID-19 March 30, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe37 comments
I am, like you, restless and having trouble coping with the tragedy going on. It’s especially hard to think through the logical details of issues that only two weeks ago seemed urgently important. So instead, like you, I find myself with an internal dialogue of how the publicized statistics are consistently biased or wrong. At the risk of simply supporting your own internal thoughts, here are a few of mine: * We still aren’t testing people, even in New York, which is the most tested populationin
the current mostly highly infected country according to the crap datawe have.
* What that means to me is that we can ballpark how many actual cases we have if we know what the condition is for actually getting tested. In New York, it’s something close to “needs hospitalization.” Considering that only about the worst 10% of cases in countries that do widespread testing actually need hospitalization, that means we can multiply our confirmed case count by 10 to get an estimated total case count. * That means that, instead of 60K cases in New York state, which iswhat this webpage
says this
morning, we can assume it’s actually more like 600K. * Similarly as a nation, we should multiply the confirmed case count of 143K by ten to get an estimated 1.43 million cases in the US. * Is that an overestimate? Perhaps. It’s possible that enough testing is happening in those car wash type setups, where people are at least capable of driving a car, to make it pessimistic. * On the other hand, we’ve seen plenty of examples in the NYC area of people calling their doctor with intensely bad symptoms who are told not to overburden the hospital system and to take care ofthemselves at home.
* Also, it’s worth pointing out that multiplying by 10 assumes that more than half, and perhaps up to 75% of all actual cases are entirely asymptomatic. This is something we’ve been seeing in places that have done randomized or comprehensive testing. * All the above are ballpark reckoning, but honestly I trust my numbers more than any official ones. * Especially because we’ve been hearing stories told in Spain and Italy that their death counts are not including horrible fucking things that have been happening in nursing homes. That means those terrible numbers are heavily underestimating actual deaths. * Also, we should not trust China’s death count numbers, which some say are underestimating actual death counts by a factor around15.
* And if we don’t trust their death counts, we should also not count their confirmed case count, which has been tiny recently. * Why this matters a lot to us right now is that China closed Wuhan on January 23rd, which means they are/were under quarantine stricter than ours for more than two months, and we’d REALLY like to know what the actual situation is right now, but we don’t. * Long story short, being a skeptical data scientist means not trusting the data whatsoever. The best we can do is use the data and our real world knowledge to ballpark what might actually be happening. We will never know the true numbers. * One exception might be the Netherlands, which I’m keeping my eyes on. I don’t think they lie as much as most other countries. * I could be wrong about that too. * I hope tomorrow’s post will be more optimistic. * One last comments: Sunday reported deaths are lower than other days because of the way reporting happens. Doctors and others are taking a well-deserved rest. So don’t get excited about flattening curves based on Sunday data: Categories: Uncategorized A BETTER PROXY THAN CONFIRMED CASES FOR THE US IS HOSPITAL BEDS March 14, 2020 Cathy O'Neil, mathbabe17 comments
If you’re anything like me, you’re driving yourself a bit nuts looking for information on the COVID-19 situation in the U.S. as wellas internationally.
And, if you’re like me, you will have been tearing your hair out frustrated by the bad quality of data. For terrible political and cultural and of course capitalistic reasons, we are not getting tested at reasonable rates as charts like this demonstrate: That means, as cool as websites like thisor this are for
up-to-date data on country and state level confirmed positive test results and deaths, we are not actually seeing enough to know how bad things really are. Note to the people who run those sites: please add columns for “number of tests administered” so we have some idea of how incomplete the data really is. All of the above is nothing new, I’m sure you’ve already complained at length to your friends about this very topic. The only things I really want to say is that, considering that we don’t know who is infected, we should use as a proxy of our problem not the “confirmed case” count but rather the “hospital beds used above normal” count. It’s not perfect metric either, primarily because the virus takes days to spread and days to get people quite sick, and indeed once the hospital beds _really_ start filling up, it’s already a much bigger problem. But I’d still argue that we should try to use this proxy, for the following reasons: * Hospitals definitely keep track of their bed counts, you can be sure of that. So the data is available. * It doesn’t depend on the availability of testing, which as we’ve discussed above, is very problematic. Our death count is most assuredly way too low because there have likely been plenty of people dying of coronavirus who just never got tested. * In other words, counting beds is relatively free of politicalmanipulation.
There are also problems with this proxy, both of which make it underestimate the problem. First, because people who have elective surgery are rescheduling for a later date. Second, because our social distancing has probably made other illnesses less common, leading to less hospital stays for other reasons. Even so, I’d love an intrepid journalist to try to collect this statistic from many national hospital chains, and compare it to last year’s bed count, as well as yesterday’s and last week’s, to seehow things compare.
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