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NEW YORK MAGAZINE
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iowa caucuses
Donald Trump Is Winning the 2020 Democratic Primary* Share
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Ad will collapse in seconds… CLOSE iowa caucuses Feb. 4, 2020THIS IS HOW HE WINS
By Eric Levitz @EricLevitz Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images On Monday, the Democratic Party kicked off the 2020 campaign by broadcasting a marathon infomercial for its own administrative incompetence and internecine enmity overevery major
news channel.
The fine details of the party’s general-election strategy have yet to be determined. But it’s hard to name a prominent anti-Trump message that the Iowa caucuses _didn’t_ undermine. Hoping to sell voters on a return “return to normalcy” and presidential professionalism? Your party just orchestrated a historically abnormal and amateurish fiasco.
Planning to paint Trump as a synecdoche for the endemic corruption of American politics? Democrats just gave their most unreliable supporters cause for leveling incendiary allegations of election tampering and egregious graft against the party’s Establishment. Eager to make this race into a referendum on Trump’s opportunistic assaults on liberal democratic norms? Your (former?) front-runner’ssurrogates
have been sowing doubts about the legitimacy of election results thatlook bad for them.
Put yourself in the shoes of a low-information swing voter. For all of 2016, every well-credentialed expert and organ of respectable liberal opinion assured you that Donald Trump was an agent of chaos whose election would tank the stock market and sow global disorder. Trump, meanwhile, told you that he was a brilliant businessman who would make great deals to strengthen the economy. You do not consume much news. Or else you take in a discordant cacophony of competing narratives from CNN, Fox News, your liberal aunt and MAGA co-workers. But you do know that the unemployment rate is near half-century lows, and that there are fewer boarded-up retail spaces on the downtown mall, and that wages seem to be rising (however tepidly) even among your less well-off friends, and that your 401(k) is way better off now than itwas four years ago.
Which of the aforementioned narratives about Donald Trump would you find more plausible? How about if the party that had told you Trump would be an agent of chaos and gross mismanagement then botched an election because it didn’t consider the _possibility_ that the septuagenarian retirees who staff their caucuses _might_ struggle to use an (untested) app without some training?
A comprehensive account of what went wrong at Monday’s caucuses will take time to compile. But at present, we do know that the IowaDemocratic Party:
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• Decided to debut a new technology for reporting results on a night when any IT hiccup would mean calamity. • Did not provide 70-something precinct captains with any training on how to use the app and advised them to simply phone in the results if they couldn’t get it to work. • Understaffed the Caucus Night hotline that staffers would need to use in the event of a problem with the app. • Spent $60,000 on a results-reporting app that was always going to be much less secure than more primitive technologies and — when put into practice — reportedly suffered from a “coding issue” that caused it to send only partial results. Which is to say: This was not some perfect storm that descended on Iowa Democrats. It was the culmination of a series of blatant misjudgments. Many within the party saw Monday night’s calamity coming. On the morning of the election, long before the caucuses commenced, the _Atlantic_’s Elaine Godfrey published a report titled, “The Iowa Caucus Could Go Very Wrong.” The failures were not merely foreseeable; they _were_ foreseen. And those failures haven’t just undermined the Democratic Party’s attacks on Trump’s incompetence. They’ve also inflamed the party’s most wrenching internal disputes and demoralized its mostardent activists.
In the wake of reports that (a tiny fraction of) Democratic National Committee members discussed rule changes to block Bernie Sanders’s nomination at a contested convention, and the bizarre last-minute cancellation of a highly anticipated Iowa poll last weekend, many of the Vermont senator’s supporters went into Monday night primed to witness Establishmentarian machinations. The ensuing events did little to dispel their paranoia. After early returns showed Bernie Sanders running slightly ahead of Pete Buttigieg for first place, Iowa Democrats suddenly froze the results in the name of performing “quality control” on the vote tallies. And then word of themysterious app
began to spread. And then someone got their hands on FEC documents revealing that Pete Buttigieg’s campaign had paid tens of thousandsof dollars
to the very technology firm that designed the app! And then, Buttigieg went before the cameras and declared himself the winner despite the absence of any officialresults.
Oh, and the name of that technology firm that provided Iowa Democrats with a faulty app and Pete Buttigieg with “text-messagingservices”
?
_Shadow_.
Need I say more?
Of course, the conspiracy theories now percolating across politics Twitter make little sense. The most prominent one ostensibly posits that the Buttigieg campaign conspired to engineer a delay in the reporting of Iowa’s results — by paying a tech firm to sell Iowans a faulty app — as a means of denying Bernie Sanders the boost of positive earned-media-driven “momentum” that the winner of the Iowa caucuses normally enjoys. This narrative strains credulity formany reasons.
1. There is nothing particularly suspicious about the fact that Buttigieg’s campaign had a contract with the same firm that provided the Iowa Democratic Party its app. Shadow is a prominent Democraticcampaign contractor
that provided services to Joe Biden’s campaign; Kirsten Gillibrand’s short-lived run; the Texas, Nevada, and Wisconsin Democratic parties; and a variety of congressional campaigns and progressive grassroots organizations. 2. Tech firms do not generally like to associate themselves and their products with historic IT failures. It would make no financial sense whatsoever for Shadow to introduce itself to the nation’s consciousness as a designer of catastrophically defective apps in exchange for tens of thousands of dollars. 3. Pete Buttigieg appears to have been the main _victim_ of last night’s omnishambles. The available data remains limited and could be biased by its geographical origins. But the
partial, internal results released by the Buttigieg and Sanders campaigns both indicate that Mayor Pete outperformed his polls and — at worst — came in a close second, far outpacing his rival “moderate” Joe Biden. If today’s headlines had touted Sanders victory and Buttigieg’s besting of Biden, that would have been _much_ better for the former South Bend mayor’s campaign than the news cycle we got instead: namely, one focused on the caucuses’ administrative difficulties, with Pete’s controversial declarationof victory
featuring as a B or C story. Iowa was Pete’s best opportunity for a major polling bounce. To the extent the Hawkeye State’s results get upstaged by succeeding events, or compromised past the point of usability, the salience of next week’s primary in New Hampshire increases — and New Hampshire happens to be the state where Bernie Sanders polls best. Sabotaging the Iowa caucuses to blunt the Vermont senator’s momentum would be an irrational scheme for any Democrat to dream up. For Pete, it would be stark-raving mad. 4. The non-conspiratorial explanation for what we witnessed Monday night is logically coherent. This was the first time that the Iowa Democratic Party had ever been required to report three distinct sets of results — the vote tally on “first alignment,” the vote tally on “final alignment” (when backers of candidates who lack 15 percent support redistribute their votes to higher-polling candidates), and the final delegate tally. In the past, the party was only on the hook for that last metric, which is much easier to tabulate (it seems possible that both parties have always compensated for the inherent messiness of caucuses by not sweating the precision of each count). This, by itself, could be sufficient cause for a poorly organized, volunteer-dependent organization to screw things up. Add in the Democrats’ susceptibility to tech fetishism and/or the campaign-contractor industrial complex (and/or graft), and you can see how the party might have come to see a “killer app” as the best means of compensating for the logistical challenge that it faced. Sprinkle atop all this the tech illiteracy of the volunteer base and incompetence of the organization, and you have a recipe for the disaster we just witnessed. Diabolical conspiracies are things that exist (Google “OperationNorthwoods
”).
But extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. And most of the ones currently being disseminated on the left don’t even meet the threshold of logical coherence. The fact that some Sanders supporters have glommed onto these narratives — despite the fact that broadcasting the message “The Democratic primaries are rigged” is antithetical to mobilizing the anti-Establishment and, thus, to realizing the Vermont senator’s theory of change — is disheartening. But Sanders’s campaign has handled the fiasco more responsibly than Buttigieg’s or Biden’s. And ultimate responsibility for the present climate of paranoia and recrimination lies with the Iowa Democratic Party. Conspiracy theories follow Election Night irregularities as thunder follows lightning — especially when one’s adversaries are consummate “ratfuckers.” But Monday night’s fiasco didn’t just serve to confirm swing voters’ skepticism about Democrats’ claims to superior professionalism or the left’s fears of DNC treachery — it also risked the disillusionment of the party’s most committed activists. Thousands of idealistic people spent several months’ worth of nights and weekends knocking on doors, dialing up strangers, and traveling back and forth across the country in an effort to use the Democratic Party as a vehicle for advancing their vision of the civic good. Their efforts are now at risk of being erased. In sum: We are 24 hours into the 2020 campaign, and Democrats have already humiliated their party on national television, alienated their least reliable progressive supporters, demoralized their most earnest activists, and handed Trump’s campaign a variety of potent lines ofattack.
It’s early. There’s plenty of time for the party to get itself together. But for the moment, Donald Trump is winning the 2020Democratic primary.
A Gallup poll released Tuesday morning put the president’s approval rating at 49 percent — the highest it has ever been. SIGN UP FOR THE INTELLIGENCER NEWSLETTER Daily news about the politics, business, and technology shaping ourworld. Email
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13Comments Leave a Comment This Is How He Wins .body" style="height: 7109.25px;">MOST VIEWED STORIES
* Trump Insists Real Photo Revealing His Fake Tan Is Fake * Kobe Bryant Pilot Deliberately Broke Flight Rules * If You Think It Looks Bad for Mainstream Democrats Now, Just Wait * Report: Trump Organization Is Bilking Taxpayers and Lying About It * Trump’s Impeachment Trial and the Verdict of HistoryMOST VIEWED STORIES
* Trump Insists Real Photo Revealing His Fake Tan Is Fake * Kobe Bryant Pilot Deliberately Broke Flight Rules * If You Think It Looks Bad for Mainstream Democrats Now, Just Wait * Report: Trump Organization Is Bilking Taxpayers and Lying About It * Trump’s Impeachment Trial and the Verdict of HistoryMOST VIEWED STORIES
* Trump Insists Real Photo Revealing His Fake Tan Is Fake * Kobe Bryant Pilot Deliberately Broke Flight Rules * If You Think It Looks Bad for Mainstream Democrats Now, Just Wait * Report: Trump Organization Is Bilking Taxpayers and Lying About It * Trump’s Impeachment Trial and the Verdict of History PROMOTED LINKS BY TABOOLAby Taboola
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THE FEED
10:30 a.m.
el paso shooting
el paso shooting
Don’t Give the El Paso Killer the Death PenaltyBy Zak Cheney-Rice
Federal hate crime charges were announced against Patrick Crusius lastweek.
2/8/2020
vision 2020
vision 2020
Biden Launches Attacks on Buttigieg, Who Nears Sanders in NewHampshire
By Chas Danner
Uncle Joe, whose campaign suddenly seems like a long shot, said Mayor Pete was not “a Barack Obama” on Saturday and attacked his recordin a new ad.
2/8/2020
So, about that SOTU scholarship surprise… President Donald Trump turned a Philadelphia fourth grader into a poster child for the school-choice movement Tuesday when he told the nation that thousands of students were “trapped in failing government schools” and announced that the girl was at last getting a scholarship to attend the school of her choice. But Janiyah Davis already attends one of the city’s most sought-after charter schools, The Inquirer has learned. In September, months before she was an honored guest at Trump’s State of the Union address, she entered Math, Science and Technology Community CharterSchool III.
MaST III opened in the fall in a gleaming facility on the site of the former Crown Cork & Seal headquarters in Northeast Philadelphia, part of a charter network so popular that the school received 6,500 applications for 100 seats next year. Like all charters, it’s independently run but funded by taxpayers — meaning that Janiyah and the other 900 students at the school do not pay tuition. Trump used Philly girl’s story to attack ‘failing government schools.’ But she’s at one of the city’s most desired charters. —The Philadelphia _Inquirer_MOST POPULAR
* Trump Insists Real Photo Revealing His Fake Tan Is FakeBy Jonathan Chait
* Kobe Bryant Pilot Deliberately Broke Flight RulesBy Jeff Wise
* If You Think It Looks Bad for Mainstream Democrats Now, Just WaitBy Jonathan Chait
* Report: Trump Organization Is Bilking Taxpayers and Lying About ItBy Jonathan Chait
* Trump’s Impeachment Trial and the Verdict of HistoryBy Ben Jacobs
2/8/2020
But is the Klomonetarymentum coming too late? Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobucharraised more
than $2 million dollars in the 14 hours after her widely-praised performance during Friday night’s debate,
her campaign said Saturday. It is Klobuchar’s best fundraising haul following any debate to date. Klobuchar’s campaign previously raised $1 million dollars in the 24 hours after the December Democratic debate in Los Angeles. Amy Klobuchar raises over $2 million after debate, campaign says—CNN
2/8/2020
Amtrak Joe goes after Mayor Pete Scrambling to salvage his presidential campaign, Joe Biden escalated his criticism of Pete Buttigieg on Saturday, mocking Buttigieg’s experience as a small city mayor and warning that he would struggle without the support of black voters who are the backbone of theDemocratic Party.
At a campaign event in New Hampshire, as well as in a new online ad, Biden was biting in his critique of Buttigieg’s relatively thin resume. The 38-year-old is a military veteran who spent eight years as mayor of South Bend, Indiana, a city of about 100,000 people. Biden mocks rival Buttigieg’s record as small city mayor—The
Associated Press
2/7/2020
Did Pete Buttigieg Successfully Withstand the Attacks at Friday’sDebate?
By Gabriel Debenedetti and Benjamin Hart2/8/2020
the national interest the national interest Trump Insists Real Photo Revealing His Fake Tan Is FakeBy Jonathan Chait
America’s comically superficial president also looks ridiculous.2/8/2020
politics
politics
Trump’s Impeachment Trial and the Verdict of HistoryBy Ben Jacobs
It may take a few decades, but the Senate’s handling of Trump’s impeachment trial will stand out.2/8/2020
vision 2020
vision 2020
Why Wasn’t Turnout Better in Iowa?By Ed Kilgore
Maybe it was just a matter of complacent Democrats not knowing or caring whom they support against Trump. But it doesn’t show an expanding coalition.2/8/2020
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Watching the Debate With Andrew Yang Fans in New HampshireBy Olivia Nuzzi
When I entered Chunky’s, the bar in the antechamber of a movie theater in an empty strip mall, I wasn’t sure I was in the rightplace.
2/8/2020
democratic debates
democratic debates
The Democrats Finally Get Around to Talking About AbortionBy Sarah Jones
With one notable exception, they were sure-footed in answering a question about “litmus tests” for judges.2/8/2020
democratic debates
democratic debates
Tom Steyer Is Here to Make Friends (With Bernie Sanders)By Chas Danner
The billionaire repeatedly praised Sanders during Friday night’s Democratic debate in New Hampshire.2/7/2020
democratic debates
democratic debates
Did Pete Buttigieg Successfully Withstand the Attacks at Friday’sDebate?
By Gabriel Debenedetti and Benjamin Hart Talking with Intelligencer’s Gabriel Debenedetti from the scene inNew Hampshire.
2/7/2020
vision 2020
vision 2020
Biden’s Last Stand?By Ed Kilgore
Biden’s candidacy was teetering entering the debate. He began by predicting his own defeat in New Hampshire, and it didn’t get muchbetter from there.
2/7/2020
One last shiv
Klobuchar went hard against Buttigieg all night and her final answer includes this: “I’m not a political newcomer with no record”—@jeneps
2/7/2020
Warren not exactly getting the frontrunner treatment here Approximate speaking times at 120 minutes, per @ABC:
BIDEN – 17:41
SANDERS – 17:27
BUTTIGIEG – 16:50
WARREN – 14:31
KLOBUCHAR – 14:15
STEYER – 10:41
YANG – 6:02#DemDebate https://t.co/nFpGKY4BBK —@FiveThirtyEight2/7/2020
She’s been having a solid evening Klobuchar is smartly turning every question into Trump’s vulnerability. It’s a basic thing but the other candidates don’t do it. —@jonathanchait2/7/2020
That’s a point…
Warren : “I don’t believe anyone who sucks up to billionaires should win this nomination”. Well, Bloomberg certainly does not suck up to billionaires. Billionaires suck up to him. —@pescami2/7/2020
An important question of the evening Why are they calling on Steyer —@jonathanchait2/7/2020
Warren hops on the rebuking-Pete train Buttigieg attempts to explain the increase in black arrests in South Bend under his leadership for marijuana possession. ABC’s Linsey Davis: “Sen. Warren, is that a substantial answer from Mayor Buttigieg?” Warren: “No.” pic.twitter.com/iesdxQTXK3—@axios
2/7/2020
And less time on Medicare for All These debates should spend more time on the opioid crisis, which the next president can really affect way more than a lot of the other stuff they’re talking about. —@gdebenedetti2/7/2020
Important perspective from Bill O’Reilly Biden says “here’s the deal.” —@BillOReilly2/7/2020
Warren’s reframe
Elizabeth Warren tonight sidestepped the Medicare for all versus public option slugfest and instead talked about drug prices. That’s in line with what a broad cross section of the public wants to hear. https://t.co/jdV1U6RZex —@larry_levitt2/7/2020
Biden’s ongoing Iraq BS Biden just repeated a version of his usual highly misleading account of why he voted for the Iraq War, as usual omitting the fact that he *vocally supported the war both as it began and until 2005.* We’ve written multiple stories about this; Biden keeps saying the samestuff. —@ddale8
2/7/2020
democratic debates
democratic debates
Klobuchar Knocks Buttigieg for Wanting to Watch Cartoons Instead ofImpeachment
By Benjamin Hart
The Minnesota senator argued that Buttigieg’s anti-Washington positioning is shallow and glib.2/7/2020
Tale of the tape so far Photo: New York Times/Twitter2/7/2020
Bernie’s ongoing FP education some of the most interesting Sanders moments of the last 5+ years have been when he starts talking about wanting to play the role of international consensus-builder (on any number of issues). the articulation of his vision is almost always interrupted or overtaken by other news. —@gdebenedetti2/7/2020
Going after the headache in chief Joe on Trump’s reference to “headaches” to describe the traumatic brain injuries suffered by soldiers in Iraq: “This guy doesn’t deserve to be commander in chief for one more day.” pic.twitter.com/eA0g3jCcDT —@nycjim2/7/2020
vision 2020
vision 2020
Biden Predicts He’ll Lose New Hampshire at Democratic DebateBy Chas Danner
The embattled former vice-president said Bernie Sanders would wininstead.
2/7/2020
A nice moment
Joe Biden gets the crowd to stand and give a round of applause for Lt. Col. Vindman. —@jdawsey12/7/2020
The sick Klobuchar burnThis @amyklobuchar
jab on Pete’s
age
“What you said, Pete, as you were campaigning through Iowa as three of us were jurors in the impeachment hearing, you said it was exhausting to watch and that you wanted to turn the channel and watch cartoons” —@misyrlenaSign In to Comment
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