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RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by another_richard 7:50PM General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 5.9K views 534 comments. 0 points. Most recent by ydoethur 5:18PM General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –. 3.1K views304
POLITICALBETTING.COM Bascially if GE2019 had been fought on these boundaries then BoJo’s majority would have been between 10 and 20 seats larger. This is because, of course, the opposition parties would see a decline at the same level thus increasing the gap by double the Tory seat gain, These probably won’t come into effect until Q3 2023 thus increasing the speculation that there could be an autumn generalRECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
LESS THAN THREE MONTHS AGO 56% OF TORY MEMBERS IN A Less than three months ago 56% of Tory members in a CONHome poll said they backed Trump – politicalbetting.comThe above is from a ConservativeHome survey that was published four days before the American election on October 31st 2020 and shows overwhelming support for the incumbent who was seeking a second term. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. A PRESIDENT WITHOUT PRECEDENT: WHICH RECORD WILL BIDEN Looks increasingly like the thing Biden will be known for in history is being the “we are not alone in the universe” president. When this many senior political officials are queuing up on TV to only barely stop short of saying it, it can’t be long before the President decides he may as well go the whole hog and etch his placein history.
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice ofRECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by another_richard 7:50PM General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 5.9K views 534 comments. 0 points. Most recent by ydoethur 5:18PM General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –. 3.1K views304
POLITICALBETTING.COM Bascially if GE2019 had been fought on these boundaries then BoJo’s majority would have been between 10 and 20 seats larger. This is because, of course, the opposition parties would see a decline at the same level thus increasing the gap by double the Tory seat gain, These probably won’t come into effect until Q3 2023 thus increasing the speculation that there could be an autumn generalRECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
LESS THAN THREE MONTHS AGO 56% OF TORY MEMBERS IN A Less than three months ago 56% of Tory members in a CONHome poll said they backed Trump – politicalbetting.comThe above is from a ConservativeHome survey that was published four days before the American election on October 31st 2020 and shows overwhelming support for the incumbent who was seeking a second term. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. A PRESIDENT WITHOUT PRECEDENT: WHICH RECORD WILL BIDEN Looks increasingly like the thing Biden will be known for in history is being the “we are not alone in the universe” president. When this many senior political officials are queuing up on TV to only barely stop short of saying it, it can’t be long before the President decides he may as well go the whole hog and etch his placein history.
FAVOURED VOTERS
4 hours ago · What’s the difference between bribing voters and fulfilling electoral promises to them? Outright bribery is now illegal but politicians still promise the earth and try to deliver. POLITICALBETTING.COM Bascially if GE2019 had been fought on these boundaries then BoJo’s majority would have been between 10 and 20 seats larger. This is because, of course, the opposition parties would see a decline at the same level thus increasing the gap by double the Tory seat gain, These probably won’t come into effect until Q3 2023 thus increasing the speculation that there could be an autumn general BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF MPS TODAY Later on today every single MP will get a special letter directed to them alone on what is planned to happen to their seats in the new boundaries that will take effect during 2023.FIGHTING COVID
1 day ago · I live in Bedford which over the past few weeks has been singled out as a COVID hotspot and each day, later in the afternoon, I almost always check out the latest data for the borough which is all on the excellent government COVID website.. One of the statistics I look at is the total death toll which is defined as “Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM. THE BOUNDARY CHANGES 1 day ago · No doubt everybody will be looking first for their own seats and the chart above shows the changes by region. Where I live, Bedford, there are no changes in a seat that was narrowly held by LAB a at GE2019 and was Tory target number one. POLITICALBETTING.COM The LDs have a better than 6% chance of taking Chesham & Amersham. On the betting exchanges the LDs are currently rated as a 6% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election which takes place on June 17th. I think this is a value bet. The above rather cheeky Tweet by the party President, Mark Pack, reflects a degree of confidence that GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING General. The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin. Not making the promised June 21 lockdown end is going to be controversial – politicalbetting.com. The Boris vaccination poll “bounce” will evaporate unless those who’ve had both jabs start to see so. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. 6.6K views 711 comments. 0 points.ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
7.1K views 612 comments. 0 points. Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. UNAPPROVED THOUGHTS. THE GOVERNMENT AND FREE SPEECH Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech – politicalbetting.com. Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election.MIKESMITHSON
About Username MikeSmithson Joined March 2013 Visits 18,808 Last Active 3:57AM Roles Member, Administrator, Moderator Points 1,095Posts 6,636
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. 6.6K views 711 comments. 0 points.ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
7.1K views 612 comments. 0 points. Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. UNAPPROVED THOUGHTS. THE GOVERNMENT AND FREE SPEECH Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech – politicalbetting.com. Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election.MIKESMITHSON
About Username MikeSmithson Joined March 2013 Visits 18,808 Last Active 3:57AM Roles Member, Administrator, Moderator Points 1,095Posts 6,636
ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM. THE BOUNDARY CHANGES 14 hours ago · No doubt everybody will be looking first for their own seats and the chart above shows the changes by region. Where I live, Bedford, there are no changes in a seat that was narrowly held by LAB a at GE2019 and was Tory target number one. BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF MPS TODAY Later on today every single MP will get a special letter directed to them alone on what is planned to happen to their seats in the new boundaries that will take effect during 2023. THE IPSOS-MORI ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX JUMPS TO ITS Maybe the weather and COVID trends are making us feel better? The net figure here is calculated by deducting the “get worse” total from the “will improve” and the chart shows how this has noved since1988.
BEST OF — POLITICALBETTING It is disturbing that Keir has not led in his honeymoon year. Lawyers, intellectuals, academics, journos all love Keir. But, he does not seem to have the folksy charm to connect with the voters --- as Bill Clinton or Tony Blair did. He comes across as cold, stilted, wooden. He is a male Theresa. So, the header is right.RECENT ACTIVITY
Welcome Aboard! Singapore top world ratings as the number 1 country for corporate governance.If the political classes spent more time focussing on anti-corruption measures rather than obsessions about 'democracy' and 'human rights' which are highly subjective issues the world would be much better.Opposing bribery and nepotism haveuniversal
THE CHANCELLOR’S CONTROVERSIAL LETTER TO CHESHAM AND Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses . The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that if GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING General. The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin. Not making the promised June 21 lockdown end is going to be controversial – politicalbetting.com. The Boris vaccination poll “bounce” will evaporate unless those who’ve had both jabs start to see so. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Howdy, Stranger! It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons! PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? politicalbetting.com POLITICALBETTING.COM THE WEB'S PREMIER RESOURCE FOR POLITICAL BETTING. With just over a month to go punters still confident that there’llbe a UK-EU deal
WITH JUST OVER A MONTH TO GO PUNTERS STILL CONFIDENT THAT THERE’LLBE A UK-EU DEAL
__ 26/11/2020
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MIKE SMITHSON
__COMMENTS 97 COMMENTS Above is the market from Smarkets which, as can be seen has moved about a fair bit over the past year. This is a huge event for British politics yet it has been totally overshadowed by COVID and the US election. I think there is going to be a deal but I’m not tempted by the odds. These are the betting market rules so you know what you are risking your money on. If the UK and EU sign a…Read More Read More
I’ve just laid Trump at an 8% chance on Betfair I’VE JUST LAID TRUMP AT AN 8% CHANCE ON BETFAIR__ 26/11/2020
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MIKE SMITHSON
__COMMENTS 650 COMMENTS The Betfair next President market continues to be totally potty and over the past 24 hours we have seen Trump’s chances move from 3% to an 8% one. Quite what people are thinking who are backing Trump is hard to say. Just about all the incumbent’s efforts to declare the results a fraud have failed to get backing from within the Republican party. Based on Betfair’s rules for the market it is nigh impossible, surely, for anyone else to be…Read More Read More
Hatchings, Matchings and Dispatchings. HATCHINGS, MATCHINGS AND DISPATCHINGS.__ 26/11/2020
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EDITOR
__COMMENTS 492 COMMENTS 2020 will be an unlamented year, known for a long time as the year of the coronavirus. Hopefully 2021 will be better, if the various vaccines and Brexit permit, and some resurgence of normal activity returns. Indeed just as the excesses of the roaring Twenties followed the Spanish Flu, we may well see a year of hedonistic excess. I do not wish to dwell long on the “excess deaths”, a subject thrashed over fairly heavily by both amateur and professional…Read More Read More
The Betfair next president market tops £1.016 BILLION of matched bets yet still it remains open THE BETFAIR NEXT PRESIDENT MARKET TOPS £1.016 BILLION OF MATCHED BETS YET STILL IT REMAINS OPEN__ 25/11/2020
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MIKE SMITHSON
__COMMENTS 450 COMMENTS The recounts in the marginal states have failed to make much difference This is getting ridiculous. Betfair has yet to close its next President market where the the rules state that “This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election.“ This is not a market on who becomes the next president to be sworn in on January 20th but who, after the November 3rd elections, was…Read More Read More
In other news
IN OTHER NEWS
__ 25/11/2020
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EDITOR
__COMMENTS 515 COMMENTS What else has been happening recently that deserves more attention than it is getting? We don’t need to worry about public sector debt – yet During the Covid era, Britain’s public sector debt has risen at a giddying rate. Public sector net borrowing is estimated to have been £22.3 billion in October 2020, £10.8 billion more than in October 2019, which is both the highest October borrowing and the sixth-highest borrowing in any month since monthly records began in1993. …
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In The Bleak Midwinter IN THE BLEAK MIDWINTER__ 25/11/2020
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CYCLEFREE
__COMMENTS 624 COMMENTS “Tis the season to be jolly careful”. The Prime Minister’s default is always to go for the quip or memorable phrase. It is infuriating when so much is at stake. The other clear message is: don’t go to a restaurant or pub, unless you are on your own or with your family. If your son comes home from university, you are two households and on no account must you go out for a meal together. Butyou can go to…
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As time runs out in the Brexit transition YouGov has “Brexit Wrong” once again with a double digit lead AS TIME RUNS OUT IN THE BREXIT TRANSITION YOUGOV HAS “BREXIT WRONG” ONCE AGAIN WITH A DOUBLE DIGIT LEAD__ 24/11/2020
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MIKE SMITHSON
__COMMENTS 314 COMMENTS And LAB will now back a deal in the Commons With things being dominated by the American presidential election we have hardly looked at the ongoing effort by the government to come to an agreement before the the end of the Brexit transition at the on New Year’s Eve. If that doesn’t happen the UK has no deal and is in very uncertain territory. In a new move tonight LAB has said that it will back the deal that emerges…Read More Read More
Following the start of the non-concession transition some interestingTrump bets
FOLLOWING THE START OF THE NON-CONCESSION TRANSITION SOME INTERESTINGTRUMP BETS
__ 24/11/2020
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MIKE SMITHSON
__COMMENTS 627 COMMENTS These are from the Smarkets betting exchange which I am now using a bit more. I do like the “will Trump attend Biden’s inauguration?” bet. The suggestion on social media at the moment is that he’ll stage a rival rally at the same time.POSTS NAVIGATION
__OLDER POSTS
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